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MBB Game 11: Presbyterian Blue Hose -- Thursday 3 pm ACCN+ -- Updated

Pilchard

Pilchard

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The Deacs play a matinee against the Hose this Thursday. Will update this thread tomorrow as the Hose play at Furman tonight at 7 pm (BTW, that should be a very high scoring game, both teams like to run).

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In the meantime, wanted to update on WF's metrics:

While the sample size is too small to be super-reliable, Torvik rates WF in the three games after adding Reid (from December 1st on) as #27 in the country and #3 in the ACC (Clemson us #23; Duke is #25).

Some other metrics in that three game span:

Offense: #42
Defense: #57 (Forbes' teams typically lag in defensive efficiency)

E FG% offense: 56% #52
E FG% defense: 44% #25
O Reb%: 34% #56
D Reb%: 72.2% #133
Defensive FT rate: #14
Pace: 68 per game #226

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Overall, KP projects WF to finish the regular season 18-13 (10-10 -- 8th in the ACC); Torvik 17-14 (9-11 - Torvik's projection is based on the full season WF results, and not the most recent three games).

Presby Update after last night's 76-61 loss to Furman:

Record: 7-6 #304. The Hose opened the year with an upset at Vandy (the Dores are now #233; so, in retrospect, perhaps not that big of an upset), rolling to a 4-0 start and a peak KP of 242. Since then, Presby has crashed back to earth going 3-6 (and the three wins were against #354 NW State, #346 VMI, and a non-D1 team). The Deacs and the Hose have one common opponent: Elon (WF beat Elon 101-78; Presby lost to Elon 82-79); as noted above, last night the Hose lost at Furman by 15, and now face a quick turnaround for a 3 pm start at the Joel.

The Analytics:

Offense:
Adj Efficiency: 97.4 -- #312
Eff FG%: 52.1 #108
3 PT FG%: 33% #172
2 PT FG% 53.1%
FT%: 63% #345

Defense:
Adj. Efficiency 108.9 -- #273
Eff FG%: 49% -- #163
3 PT%: 32% -- #110
2 PT% 51% -- #20

Extreme stats: The Hose are an awful O rebounding team (#343) and terrible FT shooting team (#345). Defensively, they foul a ton (#309 in defensive FT rate). Despite being teeny (#328 in height - see their minscule starting lineup yesterday below), Presby relies on the two to score (56% of their offense is on 2s) , and they play slightly above tempo (#86 in offensive possession length). The Hose play the #356 schedule. WF is their only top 100 opponent.


The Roster:

Against Furman, PC starters:

6-1 Fr. Kory Mincy: started the last two; 44% from three; averaging 8 ppg and 4 apg as a starter
6-4 Jr. Marquis Barnett: three year starter; leads team in scoring 14 ppg and second in assists (3 pg) 23% from three; led the team in scoring against Furman (14)
6-4 Sr. Trevon Reddish-Rhone: leads team in boards (5 rpg), taken only three treys this season;
6-4 Jr. Jamahri Harvey: UNCW transfer; 23% from three; 8 ppg
6-6 Jr. Kaleb Scott: GA State transfer: 7 ppg; 4 rpg; 1 for 3 from three on the season; 6 boards against Furman

The bench:

Presby plays a nine or ten man rotation, the key bench players are:

6-9 Jr. Jonah Pierce: transfer from D2 Francis Marion; 3rd in scoring 10 ppg; first in rebounding; 11 points against Furman
6-2 Jr. Samage Teel: WSSU transfer; second in scoring, 12 ppg; 48% from three;

The Projection:

KP WF 83 PC 63
Torvik WF 84-64

PC makes WF seem big in every respect. With 955 undergrads, Presby must among the smallest colleges playing D1 hoop. The Hose are also small on the court. Against Furman, no starter was over 6-6. Reed and Carr should score at will inside. In addition, to being small, they are a poor shooting team (a bad combo for basketball). As bad and banged up as Vanderbilt is, not sure how they lost to this team. In going through the roster, PC is not as talented as Del. State and WF won that game by 29. In addition, the Hose must be gassed after playing a Furman team last night, then traveling to WS to play a day game tomorrow. WF has to work this this team: this is WF last OOC game, and then the Deacs have 9 days off before a daunting start to the ACC schedule: six straight games where WF is expected to be no more than a 4 point favorite or less than a 3 point dog in any.

If they line opens anything close to the KP/Torvik number of 20, will be on the Deacs.
 
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Any real reason for the matinee? Not sure we will get 2k through the turnstiles for this one.
 
There must be some kind of on-campus conflict right? Why would you purposefully insure no one shows up?
 
It’s on ACCNX. If you have ACCN, you should have this on the ESPN App. There’s no such thing as ACCN+ and it is not connected to ESPN+.

This is effectively a doubleheader. The women host Marshall at noon (also on ACCNX).
 
Pilchard said:
The Deacs play a matinee against the Hose this Thursday. Will update this thread tomorrow as the Hose play at Furman tonight at 7 pm (BTW, that should be a very high scoring game, both teams like to run).

--------
In the meantime, wanted to update on WF's metrics:

While the sample size is too small to be super-reliable, Torvik rates WF in the three games after adding Reid (from December 1st on) as #27 in the country and #3 in the ACC (Clemson us #23; Duke is #25).

Some other metrics in that three game span:

Offense: #42
Defense: #57 (Forbes' teams typically lag in defensive efficiency)

E FG% offense: 56% #52
E FG% defense: 44% #25
O Reb%: 34% #56
D Reb%: 72.2% #133
Defensive FT rate: #14
Pace: 68 per game #226

-------

Overall, KP projects WF to finish the regular season 18-13 (10-10 -- 8th in the ACC); Torvik 17-14 (9-11 - Torvik's projection is based on the full season WF results, and not the most recent three games).
Click to expand...
Good to see that Torvik has picked up the improved defense somewhere. His overall defensive ranking sits at #137 and has barely come down over the past five games. Kenpom defensive rating now sits at #93. Both Torvik and Kenpom rated the defense in the 150's after the first five games when the team was allowing 76.4 ppg. The past five games the defense has allowed 60.4 ppg. Kenpom has responded.

Rankings at present. Torvik #84. Net #82. Kenpom #57. BPI #40.
 
I would hope Reid can have his way inside and gain some offensive momentum in this one. If we're getting outboarded by these guys, we're in deep do-do.
 
The last five games have been the best five defensive games of the year in unadjusted data. All five games under 1 point per possession allowed (kind of the average mark) and four of the five under .9 points per possession, with Florida just above that at .91. Some of that is level of competition, but we're obviously getting better on that side.
 
Feels like an 87-61 kinda day. I can also see a slow start overall with a random 3 tip and what is sure to be a late arriving (read: no arriving) crowd
 
Its a double-header with the women's game. They are offering admission to both games for the same price and free parking, if you arrive before 12:30. If I wasn't so busy today, I likely would be going to both games.
 
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