Pilchard
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Our 9-1 Deacs play their last home OOC game of the season tomorrow (Tuesday) against VMI. Before the Keydets update, KP now projects WF to finish the regular season at 20-11 (11-9 - tied for 5th in the ACC with FSU), that is in firm bubble range for the Deacs; generally 20 wins and 11 conference wins would constitute an NCAA lock, but the ACC has been horrible so far (and the number of OOC games is dwindling) and the WF OOC schedule has been weak; 11 ACC wins is the minimum for a WF NCAA bid, and it may take 12. While that seems like a lot, only Duke is clearly better than WF among ACC teams; 12+ conference wins is achievable for this WF team.
On to tomorrow's game, here is a quick take on VMI:
Coach Dan Earl: Former Penn State player (4 year starter) and assistant coach, Dan Earl, took over the VMI program in 2015-6. Under Earl it has been a slow, but steady re-build. In VMI's first 3 years under Earl, the Keydets finished at the bottom of the SoCon standings and in the 300s in KP ratings. In 2019 and 2020, VMI rose to the mid-200s. Last year, VMI had a breakthrough season, as the Keydets finished with .500 record in conference for the first time since 2014 as Earl won SoCon COY honors. VMI also finished last season ranked #153 (ahead of #175 WF). Earl's teams rely on the 3 point shot, and VMI generally runs a Princeton offense with 4 or 5 players on the perimeter, the VMI center passing from the top of the key (see video below), relying on back-door cuts and lots of threes to generate offense. While at ETSU, Steve Forbes went 8-0 against Dan Earl's VMI teams -- only one win was in single digits.
[video]https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/55db761ce4b0d9cdccddad7d/1630355255764-LP3OZ7PK9KQE4FC85GLU/vmi+back+door.gif?format=1000w[/video]
2021-22 Keydets: VMI returned 3.5 and starters from last season, and the Keydets are off to a solid start to the season 7-4 (#237). The VMI schedule has been soft as two of their wins are over non-D1 teams, and the Keydets' toughest opponent to date was #194 Seattle U. VMI does head into W-S on a 4 game win-streak, with the most recent win coming on Saturday over Gardner-Webb 64-61. WF is the only top 100 team on VMI's schedule. As noted above, VMI lives and dies by the three point shot: of the 358 D1 teams, VMI is #2 in 3 point attempts per overall FG attempts. 54% of all of their shots from the floor are 3s. VMI is also a superior FT shooting team (82% #3). While VMI is a strong shooting team, they are a dreadful defensive team (#308 in defensive efficiency). The Keydets essentially never force TOs (#351 in defensive TO rate), and even though they sag on defense, VMI struggles to keep teams off the offensive glass (#281 in preventing offensive rebounds). In the past, VMI has generally tried to push tempo, but this year they have played at a moderate pace, possibly because VMI is not a deep team (#287 in bench minutes). VMI is also a small team #309 in average height.
Roster:
Starters (everyone shoots threes):
G 6-0 So. Trey Bonham: Missed 3 games with an injury earlier this season; all freshman SoCon last year; VMI has played their best basketball of the season since he returned; 2nd in steals; first in assists; shot 43% from 3 last year; 21% this year
G 6-1 Jr. Kamdyn Curfman: leading scorer 18 ppg; 41% from 3; 91% from the line; high volume shooter; has launched double figures threes in five of VMIs 9 D1 games
G/F Jr. Sean Conway: 10 ppg; 37% from 3; 7 rpg; has taken 52 three point shots and 22 two point shots;
F 6-6 So. Tanner Mans: 7 ppg and 5 rpg; first on the team in steals; 36% from 3
C 6-11 Sr. Jake Stephens: he makes the offense go; leads team in assists, rebounds and blocks, 2nd in scoring; 3rd team SoCon last year; 45% from 3; 82% from 2
Bench:
G/F 6-4 Jr. Louis Tang: from Taiwan; had 7 points last time out; the only Keydet that plays who doesn't shoot 3s; 62% from 2; injured last year
G 5-10 Fr. Honor Huff: started 3 games when Bonham was out; perfect from the FT line 11 for 11; 25% from 3
F 6-7 Sr. Conor Arnold: plays when Stephens needs a break; limited offensively has not made a three point shot since Steve Forbes moved on from ETSU
G 5-11 Fr. Brennan Watkins: big rep as 3 point shooter in HS; 34% this year
Projection: KP projects a 82-66 WF win. WF is going score inside often as the Deacs are #7 in the nation in 2 PT FG% and VMI is a small defensively challenged team; when WF misses, the Deacs should grab plenty of offensive rebounds (VMI can't keep teams off the glass, and WF is the biggest team VMI has faced this season). VMI's 3 point shooting will determine the competitiveness of the game. If VMIs shots from deep are falling, the Keydets will hang around for awhile. Regardless, WF's size and skill will eventually wear-down the small and scrappy Keydets. WF played exceptional defense on Saturday against USC Upstate (Deacs held USC-U to .71 points per possession --- VMI is a far better offensive team), but the Deac offense was rusty (Deacs had 15 TOs; other than Carter Whitt, WF was 5 for 23 from three). Think the WF offense will step it up on Tuesday, as this game looks to have far more points than this past Saturday. Would lean over. Not inclined to take a side as VMI's reliance on the three makes the final margin volatile.
On to tomorrow's game, here is a quick take on VMI:
Coach Dan Earl: Former Penn State player (4 year starter) and assistant coach, Dan Earl, took over the VMI program in 2015-6. Under Earl it has been a slow, but steady re-build. In VMI's first 3 years under Earl, the Keydets finished at the bottom of the SoCon standings and in the 300s in KP ratings. In 2019 and 2020, VMI rose to the mid-200s. Last year, VMI had a breakthrough season, as the Keydets finished with .500 record in conference for the first time since 2014 as Earl won SoCon COY honors. VMI also finished last season ranked #153 (ahead of #175 WF). Earl's teams rely on the 3 point shot, and VMI generally runs a Princeton offense with 4 or 5 players on the perimeter, the VMI center passing from the top of the key (see video below), relying on back-door cuts and lots of threes to generate offense. While at ETSU, Steve Forbes went 8-0 against Dan Earl's VMI teams -- only one win was in single digits.
[video]https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/55db761ce4b0d9cdccddad7d/1630355255764-LP3OZ7PK9KQE4FC85GLU/vmi+back+door.gif?format=1000w[/video]
2021-22 Keydets: VMI returned 3.5 and starters from last season, and the Keydets are off to a solid start to the season 7-4 (#237). The VMI schedule has been soft as two of their wins are over non-D1 teams, and the Keydets' toughest opponent to date was #194 Seattle U. VMI does head into W-S on a 4 game win-streak, with the most recent win coming on Saturday over Gardner-Webb 64-61. WF is the only top 100 team on VMI's schedule. As noted above, VMI lives and dies by the three point shot: of the 358 D1 teams, VMI is #2 in 3 point attempts per overall FG attempts. 54% of all of their shots from the floor are 3s. VMI is also a superior FT shooting team (82% #3). While VMI is a strong shooting team, they are a dreadful defensive team (#308 in defensive efficiency). The Keydets essentially never force TOs (#351 in defensive TO rate), and even though they sag on defense, VMI struggles to keep teams off the offensive glass (#281 in preventing offensive rebounds). In the past, VMI has generally tried to push tempo, but this year they have played at a moderate pace, possibly because VMI is not a deep team (#287 in bench minutes). VMI is also a small team #309 in average height.
Roster:
Starters (everyone shoots threes):
G 6-0 So. Trey Bonham: Missed 3 games with an injury earlier this season; all freshman SoCon last year; VMI has played their best basketball of the season since he returned; 2nd in steals; first in assists; shot 43% from 3 last year; 21% this year
G 6-1 Jr. Kamdyn Curfman: leading scorer 18 ppg; 41% from 3; 91% from the line; high volume shooter; has launched double figures threes in five of VMIs 9 D1 games
G/F Jr. Sean Conway: 10 ppg; 37% from 3; 7 rpg; has taken 52 three point shots and 22 two point shots;
F 6-6 So. Tanner Mans: 7 ppg and 5 rpg; first on the team in steals; 36% from 3
C 6-11 Sr. Jake Stephens: he makes the offense go; leads team in assists, rebounds and blocks, 2nd in scoring; 3rd team SoCon last year; 45% from 3; 82% from 2
Bench:
G/F 6-4 Jr. Louis Tang: from Taiwan; had 7 points last time out; the only Keydet that plays who doesn't shoot 3s; 62% from 2; injured last year
G 5-10 Fr. Honor Huff: started 3 games when Bonham was out; perfect from the FT line 11 for 11; 25% from 3
F 6-7 Sr. Conor Arnold: plays when Stephens needs a break; limited offensively has not made a three point shot since Steve Forbes moved on from ETSU
G 5-11 Fr. Brennan Watkins: big rep as 3 point shooter in HS; 34% this year
Projection: KP projects a 82-66 WF win. WF is going score inside often as the Deacs are #7 in the nation in 2 PT FG% and VMI is a small defensively challenged team; when WF misses, the Deacs should grab plenty of offensive rebounds (VMI can't keep teams off the glass, and WF is the biggest team VMI has faced this season). VMI's 3 point shooting will determine the competitiveness of the game. If VMIs shots from deep are falling, the Keydets will hang around for awhile. Regardless, WF's size and skill will eventually wear-down the small and scrappy Keydets. WF played exceptional defense on Saturday against USC Upstate (Deacs held USC-U to .71 points per possession --- VMI is a far better offensive team), but the Deac offense was rusty (Deacs had 15 TOs; other than Carter Whitt, WF was 5 for 23 from three). Think the WF offense will step it up on Tuesday, as this game looks to have far more points than this past Saturday. Would lean over. Not inclined to take a side as VMI's reliance on the three makes the final margin volatile.
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