Pilchard
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- May 3, 2011
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Hey, WF is dancing; unfortunately, it's not the Big Dance; instead the dance looks something like this:
Oof....
The NIT 'selection committee' gerrymandered the bracket so that the Deacs and Apps (just 86 miles apart) face-off in the NIT Opening Round.
Here's a quick look at the Apps:
The 2024 Season
App. State #79 27-6. Dustin Kerns has steadily raised the App's profile over his five-year tenure in Boone. Check out this progression:
The Apps have enjoyed one of the best season's in school history, winning the Sun Belt regular season title, sweeping #59 JMU AND beating #4 Auburn 69-64 on December 3 (not sure how Kerns convinced Bruce Pearl to travel to Boone for a game; that's not happening again after shocking the Tigers). Until a disappointing loss to Arkansas State in the Sun Belt tourney, the Mountaineers rolled through their schedule winning 16 of 17 games from January 11 to March 9.
Analytics
App Offense ======== WF Defense
Adj. Eff. 108.3 #141 ------ 99.8 #55
Eff. FG% 53% #73 ------- 49% #85
3 PT% 34% #196 --------- 33% #103
2 PT% 54% 47 ------------ 49% #106
WF Offense ========= App Defense
Adj. Eff. 118 #26 ---------- 98 #33
Eff. FG% 55 #30 ---------- 45 #5
3 PT% 37 #22 ------------ 32 #72
2 PT% 54 #43 ------------ 44% #6
The Apps are all about scoring inside and keeping their opponents from scoring inside. They are #316 in % of offense from three, but #14 in % in offense from two. Defensively, the Apps lock-down on the paint #6 in the nation on 2 PT defense, and #5 in the nation in effective FG%. The Mountaineers held Auburn to 64 points, their third lowest output of the season. The Apps held JMU to 55 points in their first meeting, JMU lowest point total of the season by 13 points.
Roster
In their SB Tourney loss, the Apps started:
6-3 5th year Donovan Gregory: leads team in scoring 13 ppg; 2nd in assists 3 apg; 50% from three, but shoots less than 1 per game
6-3 3rd year Terence Harcum: 12 ppg; 36% from three, leads team in 3PT attemps and makes; 82% from the line
6-3 4th year Xavion Brown: hasn't attempted a three this season; 3.5 ppg; 3.5 rpg; defensive specialist
6-7 JUCO TR Tre'Von Spillers: 2nd in scoring (13 ppg); first in boards ( 9 rpg); doesn't shoot threes; 60% from the field
6-9 2nd year Justin Abson: shot blocking machine #19 in the nation in block rate; 1 for 8 from three; 64% from two
Bench: 6-0 4th year Myles Tate (Butler transfer; leads team in assists; 2nd in steals); 6-11 CJ Huntley 4th year (122 O rating; 7 ppg; 5 rpg)
Projection:
KP: WF 78-70
Torvik: WF 77-67
App's are a throwback team. They don't shoot threes, and Kerns has not made extensive use of the portal. He recruits under-valued players and develops them. Their emphasis is defense, and the players have bought-in.
Feel like this is a much bigger game for App than for WF. While the Apps had to be disappointed as the #1 seed losing in the SB tournament, the Apps have very limited post-season history (3 NCAA bids; 1 NIT bid); so, making the NIT is an accomplishment and playing an ACC team is a big deal. Also, App played at WF in 2023 and WF barely escaped with a 67-66 on a buzzer beater by Andrew Carr (the Apps had the ball and the lead with 2.3 seconds left):
Most of the App roster returns from that game. I'm sure that painful loss will be on the Mountaineers minds. So, like the under and if I had to pick a side, Apps are the play if WF is giving anything close to 8 as KP projects.
Oof....
The NIT 'selection committee' gerrymandered the bracket so that the Deacs and Apps (just 86 miles apart) face-off in the NIT Opening Round.
Here's a quick look at the Apps:
The 2024 Season
App. State #79 27-6. Dustin Kerns has steadily raised the App's profile over his five-year tenure in Boone. Check out this progression:
- 2021 - #212
- 2022 - #166
- 2023 - #181
- 2024 - #79
The Apps have enjoyed one of the best season's in school history, winning the Sun Belt regular season title, sweeping #59 JMU AND beating #4 Auburn 69-64 on December 3 (not sure how Kerns convinced Bruce Pearl to travel to Boone for a game; that's not happening again after shocking the Tigers). Until a disappointing loss to Arkansas State in the Sun Belt tourney, the Mountaineers rolled through their schedule winning 16 of 17 games from January 11 to March 9.
Analytics
App Offense ======== WF Defense
Adj. Eff. 108.3 #141 ------ 99.8 #55
Eff. FG% 53% #73 ------- 49% #85
3 PT% 34% #196 --------- 33% #103
2 PT% 54% 47 ------------ 49% #106
WF Offense ========= App Defense
Adj. Eff. 118 #26 ---------- 98 #33
Eff. FG% 55 #30 ---------- 45 #5
3 PT% 37 #22 ------------ 32 #72
2 PT% 54 #43 ------------ 44% #6
The Apps are all about scoring inside and keeping their opponents from scoring inside. They are #316 in % of offense from three, but #14 in % in offense from two. Defensively, the Apps lock-down on the paint #6 in the nation on 2 PT defense, and #5 in the nation in effective FG%. The Mountaineers held Auburn to 64 points, their third lowest output of the season. The Apps held JMU to 55 points in their first meeting, JMU lowest point total of the season by 13 points.
Roster
In their SB Tourney loss, the Apps started:
6-3 5th year Donovan Gregory: leads team in scoring 13 ppg; 2nd in assists 3 apg; 50% from three, but shoots less than 1 per game
6-3 3rd year Terence Harcum: 12 ppg; 36% from three, leads team in 3PT attemps and makes; 82% from the line
6-3 4th year Xavion Brown: hasn't attempted a three this season; 3.5 ppg; 3.5 rpg; defensive specialist
6-7 JUCO TR Tre'Von Spillers: 2nd in scoring (13 ppg); first in boards ( 9 rpg); doesn't shoot threes; 60% from the field
6-9 2nd year Justin Abson: shot blocking machine #19 in the nation in block rate; 1 for 8 from three; 64% from two
Bench: 6-0 4th year Myles Tate (Butler transfer; leads team in assists; 2nd in steals); 6-11 CJ Huntley 4th year (122 O rating; 7 ppg; 5 rpg)
Projection:
KP: WF 78-70
Torvik: WF 77-67
App's are a throwback team. They don't shoot threes, and Kerns has not made extensive use of the portal. He recruits under-valued players and develops them. Their emphasis is defense, and the players have bought-in.
Feel like this is a much bigger game for App than for WF. While the Apps had to be disappointed as the #1 seed losing in the SB tournament, the Apps have very limited post-season history (3 NCAA bids; 1 NIT bid); so, making the NIT is an accomplishment and playing an ACC team is a big deal. Also, App played at WF in 2023 and WF barely escaped with a 67-66 on a buzzer beater by Andrew Carr (the Apps had the ball and the lead with 2.3 seconds left):
Most of the App roster returns from that game. I'm sure that painful loss will be on the Mountaineers minds. So, like the under and if I had to pick a side, Apps are the play if WF is giving anything close to 8 as KP projects.
