Pilchard
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After crushing exam week, our Deacs fly to Atlanta to challenge the LSU Tigers as part of a 4 game basketball challenge. Here is the rundown on the Tigers:
Coach Matt McMahon Builds LSU Roster on the Fly: WF lost to LSU last year 75-61 in Niceville, FL. This LSU team looks nothing like that team. Different coach, different players, different venue for the game. No one that scored for LSU in that game is playing on Saturday.
In April when LSU hired McMahon from Murray State (where he recruited and coached Ja), LSU had no one on its basketball roster. Not one player. All had either moved on to pro ball or entered the portal. McMahon was able to convince three players to drop out of the portal and return to Baton Rouge:
2022-23 LSU: The Tigers head into Atlanta with a 7-1 record, #59 in KP, but their schedule has been beyond soft (#343). They have played one game against a top 100 team - a 61-59 loss to #57 K State (Ish Massoud played one minute and missed a three). To date, LSU's best win was over #127 Akron (73-58). Most recently, LSU won tight home games over #139 Wofford (78-75) and #278 UT-Arlington (63-59). Tigers are untested. They also have not played a road game yet, and won't until January 6 at Kentucky (guessing LSU will be the last team in the country to play a true roadie). LSU scheduled to avoid early adversity as McMahon builds continuity.
LSU has the #70 offense --
Only strengths:
Roster:
Last time out, Tigers started:
G 6-0 Justice Hill: coveted Murray State transfer; has struggled in the move as his "O" rating has dropped from 114 to 96; in a shooting slump - 2 for his last 15 from 3; leads team in assists; 9 ppg
G 6-3 Adam Miller: Illinois transfer; big-time class of 2020 recruit: SHOOTER; 40% from 3; 85% from 2; has launched 7+ threes in 7 of 8 games; cannot leave him alone; leading scorer 17 ppg; has scored 26 twice
G/F 6-6 Mwani Wilkinson: doesn't score (3.6 ppg), but is an unsustainable 50% from three (8 for 16)
F 6-10 Jalen Reed: Freshman, 4 ppg; 3 rpg; four three point attempts on the season
C 6-10 KJ WIlliams: coveted Murray State transfer: 118 O rating; 40% from 3; 57% from 2; 85% from the line; 17 ppg; 7 rpg; leads team in steals; matchup problem
Bench:
G 6-2 Trae Hannibal: SC/Murray State transfer; 5 ppg 4 rpg; turnover machine; hasn't attempted a three on the season
C/F 6-10 Derek Fountain: Miss State transfer; 68% from the field on the season; leads LSU with 120 O rating; 87% from the line
G 6-2 Cam Hayes: NC State transfer; had a solid freshman year at NCS; regressed last year; has been solid for LSU: 6 ppg; scored in double figures twice; 50% from 3
F 6-8 Kendal Coleman: NW State transfer: 115 O rating; scored 7 points in each of the last two games; 65% from the field doesn't shoot threes
Score Projection: KP project a 73-71 LSU win in 71 possessions; Torvik 72-71 LSU.
Like WF here. LSU has played one decent team K State (another team with a new coach and a ton of transfers), and lost. LSU has built it power rating by beating up on weaklings. Also, LSU has a ton of players shooting way above their historical averages from the line, from 2 and from 3. So, offensive regression is coming. Feel like the only unfavorable matchup for WF is KJ Williams who is 6-10 and can score inside and out, but even Williams is playing above what is reasonably expected of him based on his Murray State career. While there really isn't much of a revenge angle given LSU's coaching and roster turnover, Forbes and WF understand that this will be a key game to build portfolio as after LSU on a neutral and Rutgers in NJ, a week from Saturday, WF has only ACC games to prove its merit. This would be a solid win, but a terrible loss.
Also, while McMahon has done a nice job to start at LSU, he is in year #1 in Baton Rouge, while Forbes is in year #3, and McMahon was left with little to build upon. WF should be ahead of LSU right now. Finally, feel like Forbes will have WF's full attention after the bad (and a little unlucky; Clemson shot 67% from 3 and was 15 for 15 from the line in the 2nd half) second half at Clemson. Deacs will be rested and ready. Would love WF to be getting points, but guessing the line will be pick or WF might be a slight favorite. Don't care. If WF is minus 2 points or less, will pound WF here. Pound. Fully expect this line to move after it opens.
Coach Matt McMahon Builds LSU Roster on the Fly: WF lost to LSU last year 75-61 in Niceville, FL. This LSU team looks nothing like that team. Different coach, different players, different venue for the game. No one that scored for LSU in that game is playing on Saturday.
In April when LSU hired McMahon from Murray State (where he recruited and coached Ja), LSU had no one on its basketball roster. Not one player. All had either moved on to pro ball or entered the portal. McMahon was able to convince three players to drop out of the portal and return to Baton Rouge:
- Adam Miller: 5 star transfer from Illinois who sat out last season with an injury. He is dangerous.
- Justice Williams: planned to redshirt last season; ended up playing in mid-season when LSU was hit by injuries
- Mwani Wilkinson: produced last year; didn't score against WF
2022-23 LSU: The Tigers head into Atlanta with a 7-1 record, #59 in KP, but their schedule has been beyond soft (#343). They have played one game against a top 100 team - a 61-59 loss to #57 K State (Ish Massoud played one minute and missed a three). To date, LSU's best win was over #127 Akron (73-58). Most recently, LSU won tight home games over #139 Wofford (78-75) and #278 UT-Arlington (63-59). Tigers are untested. They also have not played a road game yet, and won't until January 6 at Kentucky (guessing LSU will be the last team in the country to play a true roadie). LSU scheduled to avoid early adversity as McMahon builds continuity.
LSU has the #70 offense --
- Strengths:
- getting to the line (#42 in FTA per FGA)
- Shooting the three 39% (#25))
- Weaknesses:
- Turnovers #249 in TO %
Only strengths:
- Forcing TOs (#34)
- Defending the 3 (27% - #30)
- Overall effective FG% (#34)
Roster:
Last time out, Tigers started:
G 6-0 Justice Hill: coveted Murray State transfer; has struggled in the move as his "O" rating has dropped from 114 to 96; in a shooting slump - 2 for his last 15 from 3; leads team in assists; 9 ppg
G 6-3 Adam Miller: Illinois transfer; big-time class of 2020 recruit: SHOOTER; 40% from 3; 85% from 2; has launched 7+ threes in 7 of 8 games; cannot leave him alone; leading scorer 17 ppg; has scored 26 twice
G/F 6-6 Mwani Wilkinson: doesn't score (3.6 ppg), but is an unsustainable 50% from three (8 for 16)
F 6-10 Jalen Reed: Freshman, 4 ppg; 3 rpg; four three point attempts on the season
C 6-10 KJ WIlliams: coveted Murray State transfer: 118 O rating; 40% from 3; 57% from 2; 85% from the line; 17 ppg; 7 rpg; leads team in steals; matchup problem
Bench:
G 6-2 Trae Hannibal: SC/Murray State transfer; 5 ppg 4 rpg; turnover machine; hasn't attempted a three on the season
C/F 6-10 Derek Fountain: Miss State transfer; 68% from the field on the season; leads LSU with 120 O rating; 87% from the line
G 6-2 Cam Hayes: NC State transfer; had a solid freshman year at NCS; regressed last year; has been solid for LSU: 6 ppg; scored in double figures twice; 50% from 3
F 6-8 Kendal Coleman: NW State transfer: 115 O rating; scored 7 points in each of the last two games; 65% from the field doesn't shoot threes
Score Projection: KP project a 73-71 LSU win in 71 possessions; Torvik 72-71 LSU.
Like WF here. LSU has played one decent team K State (another team with a new coach and a ton of transfers), and lost. LSU has built it power rating by beating up on weaklings. Also, LSU has a ton of players shooting way above their historical averages from the line, from 2 and from 3. So, offensive regression is coming. Feel like the only unfavorable matchup for WF is KJ Williams who is 6-10 and can score inside and out, but even Williams is playing above what is reasonably expected of him based on his Murray State career. While there really isn't much of a revenge angle given LSU's coaching and roster turnover, Forbes and WF understand that this will be a key game to build portfolio as after LSU on a neutral and Rutgers in NJ, a week from Saturday, WF has only ACC games to prove its merit. This would be a solid win, but a terrible loss.
Also, while McMahon has done a nice job to start at LSU, he is in year #1 in Baton Rouge, while Forbes is in year #3, and McMahon was left with little to build upon. WF should be ahead of LSU right now. Finally, feel like Forbes will have WF's full attention after the bad (and a little unlucky; Clemson shot 67% from 3 and was 15 for 15 from the line in the 2nd half) second half at Clemson. Deacs will be rested and ready. Would love WF to be getting points, but guessing the line will be pick or WF might be a slight favorite. Don't care. If WF is minus 2 points or less, will pound WF here. Pound. Fully expect this line to move after it opens.
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