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NBA offseason thread

I feel for Kobe. Beautiful man. Rich. Successful. Big cock. Married to someone batshit crazy (with thunder thighs).

Cue Irish and gaybone ... 1, 2, 3 ....
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
Yeah there are three clear SuperDuper teams for the 2012-2013 season, and then 3 also-rans in CHI, BOS, and SAS. There is no way that there is a 31% chance in reality that the field would win against those 4 teams. I didn't really look at it scientifically, but just don't see any way the Clippers get out of the West with two of the SuperTeams there and another team in the Spurs that clownstomped them in the playoffs last year.

As far as the East goes, Boston is an aging team but a team that is well coached with elite talent that fits and could get hot. BKN is intriguing but I don't like them much better than the Knicks, who have won exactly 1 playoff game in the past two years.
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How does Dwight Howard put the Lakers ahead of the Clippers? He's tall and all but not as tall as skyscrapers!

 
Ibaka signs a 4yr/$48-50M extension. OKC needs to trade Perkins and sign Harden.
 
RJKarl said:
Ibaka signs a 4yr/$48-50M extension. OKC needs to trade Perkins and sign Harden.
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OKC can't trade Perkins now that Howard plays for the Lakers. They need him. Perkins is probably all smiles on the beach somewhere.
 
They can replace him with a flavor of the month big guy. He's not more than that anyway.
Hell Pryzbilla signed for $1.3M.
 
If he is suck up the luxury tax for a year or two to win a championship/
 
With the new Ibaka deal, I have the Thunder at about 56 million in payroll in 2013-2014 for only 5 players: Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Perkins, Collison.

Harden is worth a max in this market, as Eric Gordon got a max. So throw on another 15 million or so in 2013 for Harden. Now we are sitting at 71 million and 6 players. Fill out the other roster spots with min type players at an average of about 750K (that is being optimistic), and you are at about 78 million in payroll for the 2013-2014 season. The lux tax starts at about 70 million.

kcz6l0.jpg


So a franchise and owner that have never paid the luxury tax, will be slated to pay a 14 million dollar tax bill in 2013-2014 and that is being optimistic. After that the salaries escalate and the tax rates go into repeater territory and OKC would have to pay tax bills into the 20 million range for multiple years.

In other words, either Clay Bennett is prepared to drop a small fortune on tax bills, or Harden is on the move... or maybe Ibaka in 6 months as he actually signed a reasonable contract.
 
I foresee Harden on the move, but one thing people aren't talking about is Clay Bennett's/Chesapeake Energy's financials. Isn't Chesapeake a big part of the OKC financials? And last I saw, they were about to get roflstomped by their increasing debt and expiring natural gas leases.
 
Sign harden, amnesty Perkins after a year is what they'll do. No one lets an under 25 year old James Harden walk, and if you trade him you trade him for someone you plan on paying, so you don't avoid the luxury tax by trading him. They're in win now mode, they're not trading harden for draft picks to save money.
 
palmab03 said:
Sign harden, amnesty Perkins after a year is what they'll do. No one lets an under 25 year old James Harden walk, and if you trade him you trade him for someone you plan on paying, so you don't avoid the luxury tax by trading him. They're in win now mode, they're not trading harden for draft picks to save money.
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Totally agree. Maybe cole Aldrich will be able to play minutes by then. I would have tried to sign oden over thabeet. At some point often is going to get relatively healthy and be a good center on a stacked team
 
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palmab03 said:
Sign harden, amnesty Perkins after a year is what they'll do. No one lets an under 25 year old James Harden walk, and if you trade him you trade him for someone you plan on paying, so you don't avoid the luxury tax by trading him. They're in win now mode, they're not trading harden for draft picks to save money.
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Disagree with the bolded. OKC could trade Harden for a lottery pick and an impact player still on a manageable rookie deal. They could actually save a good bit of money, avoid the tax, and still get good value for the current roster while pocketing a lottery pick for the future. If OKC flipped Harden for, say, Brad Beal and a future top five pick from Washington, or, say, Gerald Henderson and an unprotected lottery picks from the Bobcats, that's acceptable quality at roughly a third of the salary, plus a high-end draft pick who'll play cheap for 3-4 years. That's what I would do.

As things stand, OKC isn't seeing the top of the draft for years without making a trade. Harden, as was ably pointed out above, is likely to be simply too expensive for the Thunder to retain, regardless of whether they "want" to lose him (see: Asik, Lin). But if OKC works proactively, they could use Harden as the chip that replenishes their draft pipeline while not losing too much quality in the near term. Those proposed trades are just hypotheticals, but you see my point -- OKC can move Harden, avoid the tax, still get an NBA starter on a cheaper deal, all while planning for the future.

I wouldn't cut Perkins at this point, even though it likely costs you Harden (through a trade). They need someone to guard Howard, and they aren't going to find anyone on the scrap heap who can do it as well as Perkins. Center just became a whole lot more important as a position in the West. OKC will need Perkins in the WCFs.
 
Can't recall re: asik but Lin is a bad example. 1st round picks have leveraged deals that make it much more likely they resign with their current team unless they are a bust. That is why 2nd round picks that become studs like agent zero and boozer have so much more leverage for their 2nd contract.

And I disagree also on Perkins value. What Perkins does is have the center of gravity and weight to keep Howard from muscling him under the basket. This makes Birdman Anderson types have less value in the west and Dejuan Blair suddenly have a bump in value. Not saying Blair can stop Howard. Just saying he won't be backed under the basket like thinner center.

If I was a contender I'd try and get the big headed eastern European from Minnesota or the small headed pole from phoenix or find their dopelgangers somewhere in eastern Europe where the milk glows green from radiation. Those guys have a lot of value
 
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You just need a couple of big bodies to bang on Howard. Something no one has brought up yet is that Howard gets into foul trouble. with Harden, Westbrook and Durant driving, it's likely Howard may not play more than 30 mpg against OKC.

As long as Nash is on the court, Westbrook will be going to the hole on nearly every possession. I love Steve Nash, but he can't guard a chair these days. Howard is going to have to cover up for him a lot.
 
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