Non-Political Coronavirus Thread
- Thread starter 2&2 Slider To Leyritz
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2&2 Slider To Leyritz
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2&2 Slider To Leyritz
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No shit, Sherlock. But it is still millions of people with significant contact. And only 430 deaths. You are looking at it from full contact down, I'm looking at it from zero contact up. The amount of current contact, which is significant no matter how much you try to ignore it, has produced only 430 deaths in 2 months. So, again, that means that either it isn't as contagious as thought or it is significantly less deadly and/or symptomatic than reported.
tigerswood
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Is it feasible that there would be 10x more contact with no restrictions? I would think so. Maybe more. Counting the people I interact with every day at the office, and having a normal social life, I'd say my level of contact is down 100x.
So then you're already looking at 4300+ deaths and overtaxed hospitals.
What you have bumbled into is not "deaths due to pneumonia." It is how many people have a pneumonia J code (which is an ICD 10 death code) somewhere on their death certificate (not necessarily in the "cause of death" section). So if someone died of breast cancer, but at some point they also had pneumonia and that was included on their death certificate, then it was counted in the PDF you linked.
Actual death statistics are not difficult to find. Influenza and pneumonia together typically result in about 50,000 deaths annually in the United States. See here https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm
deacdiggler
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while i get that it's easy to pile onto 2&2, the link that he provided is titled "Influenza and pneumonia deaths by influenza season and age: United States, 2008–2015." While your explanation might be accurate, it's completely reasonable to say that the CDC says that his numbers are the actual pneumonia deaths in those years.
By the same token, most of the people who have died from COVID19 have pre-existing medical conditions, and many of them will fall into the same category: probably would have died of heart failure, but COVID appears on their death certificate as a cause.
By the same token, most of the people who have died from COVID19 have pre-existing medical conditions, and many of them will fall into the same category: probably would have died of heart failure, but COVID appears on their death certificate as a cause.
JuiceCrewAllStar
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it may be reasonable, but it's wrong, which is why 2&2 might want to stop acting the expert when he's been wrong over and over again
Louis Gossett Jr
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I could have picked a dozen examples over the past months, but whats the point. They illustrate some of the essential traits of 2&2: the shocking ignorance, ineptitude, and misinformation; his constant need to divide posters and attack those who are trying to promote social solidarity; his narcissism, deep insecurity, utter lack of empathy, and desperate need to be loved; his feelings of victimization and grievance; his affinity for shitty posters; and his fondness for conspiracy theories.
None of these traits are new in 2&2; they are part of the reason why some of us were warning about him long before we switched to these boards, even going back to 2011. But, more and more, those traits are defining his posting, producing a kind of creeping paralysis. We are witnessing the steady, uninterrupted intellectual and psychological decomposition of a board poster. It’s something 2&2 cannot hide—indeed, he doesn’t even try to hide it anymore. There is not even the slightest hint of normalcy.
None of these traits are new in 2&2; they are part of the reason why some of us were warning about him long before we switched to these boards, even going back to 2011. But, more and more, those traits are defining his posting, producing a kind of creeping paralysis. We are witnessing the steady, uninterrupted intellectual and psychological decomposition of a board poster. It’s something 2&2 cannot hide—indeed, he doesn’t even try to hide it anymore. There is not even the slightest hint of normalcy.
2&2 Slider To Leyritz
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Yet that table is titled Influenza and Pneumonia Deaths by Influenza Season and Age. Not J code listing, not breast cancer but had pneumonia at some point. Try again.
A quick Google search clearly shows the leading causes of death in the US, as determined by the CDC, which includes pneumonia and influenza at about 50,000 deaths per year. What he "found" (I assume he actually copied it from another website because it would not show up with a search of "US deaths per year from pneumonia" - try to find his document with a google search) is how often "pneumonia" was listed anywhere on a death certificate. Just like listing diabetes, herpes, hypertension, etc., it doesn't mean that is the cause of death.
ConnorEl
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If it's on the death certificate, it is believed to have contributed to the death.
Doesn't mean it's the primary cause or directly contributing to the primary cause.
WTF are we arguing about?
This thing is definitely highly contagious. And plenty deadly enough to warrant attention and action.
Of course we're not going to get everything just right. We should try and do the best we can.
Doesn't mean it's the primary cause or directly contributing to the primary cause.
WTF are we arguing about?
This thing is definitely highly contagious. And plenty deadly enough to warrant attention and action.
Of course we're not going to get everything just right. We should try and do the best we can.
There are only two pages - read the notes section at the bottom of the second page: "Influenza and pneumonia deaths are defined as deaths with codes J09–J11 (any listed cause) and J12–18 (listed anywhere without influenza also listed)."
I'm going to pretend that you are just confused and arguing in good faith... When one fills out a death certificate, the immediate cause of death has to be listed (and only one condition can be listed), and that is all that has to be listed. However, there are other sections where the physician can add, if they wish, other diagnoses and chronic conditions. Therefore, the table that you found is counting all cases in which pneumonia or influenza is anywhere on the death certificate, and not necessarily as the immediate cause of death.
2&2 Slider To Leyritz
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It means the motherfucker had pneumonia as a cause of death when he died. The same way someone who has a comorbidity and Covid would have them both listed and be lumped into the Covid stats. It is the exact same situation, but you only want to see one side of it, hence your asinine attempts to avoid the plain meaning of the table.
bmoneydeac
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2&2 you are literally fighting with an expert in infectious diseases, several doctors (of medicine!) and have had a zillion math fails in this thread. what do you think the odds are that you are the enlightened one here and all these other people are just flat wrong?
tigerswood
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It really is extremely Trump-like. Impressively so. I bet Trump HATES snow days too.
2&2 Slider To Leyritz
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Given that Rafi apparently can't read the title of the official CDC table on the matter, I think my odds are pretty damn high. And my math is on point, as was my Currie/Manning strategy despite every other person here saying it would never happen. Not my fault that you clowns are a few months late to every party.
BeachBumDeac
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I still laugh at the "if 5 people have the disease, and 3 are asymptomic and 2 are symptomatic and each group grows exponentially by itself"
No, it doesn't. It means someone listed pneumonia somewhere on their death certificate. It could be after "metastatic breast cancer," "heart failure," and "pulmonary embolism." In this example, the cause of death is breast cancer, which is how it would correctly be counted by the CDC. If someone gets COVID and dies of pneumonia, both should be listed on the death certificate and it should correctly be counted as a COVID death because COVID caused the pneumonia. I think you are struggling with this because you have no medical knowledge, which seems to be a recurring theme for you in this thread.
Louis Gossett Jr
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2&2's chart and the argument is kinda all over the place because its the CDC P&I chart that doesn't really inform you of anything because its just the numbers used for the mathematical modeling. So tracking of influenza gets a lot of data inputs, one of the main one to see if a flu season is worse than others is the ILN network, which is just the reporting of influenza like illnesses from hospital visits. Its a simple flu like symptoms reporting system and is a pretty good indicator of how the flu season is going. True influenza deaths are only tracked by the CDC in children as flu deaths in adults are not nationally notifiable.
In order to monitor influenza related deaths in all age groups, CDC tracks pneumonia and influenza (P&I)-attributed deaths through the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Mortality Reporting System. That system collects death certificate data from state vital statistic offices for all death occurring in the country. This system tracks the proportion of death certificates processed that list pneumonia or influenza as the underlying or contributing cause of death.This system provides an overall indication of whether flu-associated deaths are elevated, but does not provide an exact number of how many people died from flu because as I mentioned flu deaths in adults arent actually recorded, they are left off of death certificates. See the discrepancy in the P&I chart between flu deaths, total pneumonia deaths, and the number 50,000 that Rafi said were influenza deaths.
So with such a large disconnect the use of mathematical modeling is used to estimate the final flu deaths per a year taking into account illness reports, death certificates, etc... Its not a perfect system because its not reportable. So death certificate data and weekly influenza virus surveillance information is used to estimate how many flu-related deaths occurred among people whose underlying cause of death on their death certificate included respiratory or circulatory causes. You end up with confidence intervals and other factors that make everything a mathematical estimate not a true number. I mean the whole point of the reporting is to try and determine if flu is over represented over a five year periodic regression estimate meaning the potential of an epidemic or pandemic and institute mitigation measures.
I don't even know what the argument was suppose to be because its something 2&2 came up with but at least now people have an understanding of how flu deaths are generated.
TL/DR: Flu deaths are an estimate based of P&I statistics from death certificates. Death certificates are lazy and hardly list everything especially if not a reportable cause of death. The pneumonia totals are for all pneumonia from all causes be it flu, other virus, choking on your food, who the fuck knows.
In order to monitor influenza related deaths in all age groups, CDC tracks pneumonia and influenza (P&I)-attributed deaths through the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Mortality Reporting System. That system collects death certificate data from state vital statistic offices for all death occurring in the country. This system tracks the proportion of death certificates processed that list pneumonia or influenza as the underlying or contributing cause of death.This system provides an overall indication of whether flu-associated deaths are elevated, but does not provide an exact number of how many people died from flu because as I mentioned flu deaths in adults arent actually recorded, they are left off of death certificates. See the discrepancy in the P&I chart between flu deaths, total pneumonia deaths, and the number 50,000 that Rafi said were influenza deaths.
So with such a large disconnect the use of mathematical modeling is used to estimate the final flu deaths per a year taking into account illness reports, death certificates, etc... Its not a perfect system because its not reportable. So death certificate data and weekly influenza virus surveillance information is used to estimate how many flu-related deaths occurred among people whose underlying cause of death on their death certificate included respiratory or circulatory causes. You end up with confidence intervals and other factors that make everything a mathematical estimate not a true number. I mean the whole point of the reporting is to try and determine if flu is over represented over a five year periodic regression estimate meaning the potential of an epidemic or pandemic and institute mitigation measures.
I don't even know what the argument was suppose to be because its something 2&2 came up with but at least now people have an understanding of how flu deaths are generated.
TL/DR: Flu deaths are an estimate based of P&I statistics from death certificates. Death certificates are lazy and hardly list everything especially if not a reportable cause of death. The pneumonia totals are for all pneumonia from all causes be it flu, other virus, choking on your food, who the fuck knows.