BeachBumDeac
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I’ll say this for 2&2. He stays in fucking character.
How are they testing people in Mecklenburg County? Is there drive through testing? Are they only testing people who are presenting severe symptoms in hospitals? It could just be that there are more infected people out and about than the numbers indicate. It could be that all of those people you see today could be checking into the hospital tomorrow.
Oh good - we’ve reached the “this was all overblown” phase of the discussion.
Oh good, we’ve moved into the #fakenews portion of the discussion.
If you have 10 million people and 7 million are shutting it down but 3 million are not, then the 7 million should be irrelevant, that 3 million should be kicking off a hell of a lot more than 5,000 cases if the contagiousness that is reported is to be believed.
Personally I'm convinced that the NC pollen deluge acts like a natural Lysol on all exposed surfaces and the aerosols floating, but I'm always a few steps ahead of the scientists.
Wonderful. So please explain how the reciprocal 85%, 60%, 50%, and 30% respective usage in Mecklenburg County, with its population of 1.11 million and 1,000 cases and 19 deaths makes sense unless either the virus does not spread as easily as reported or is much more asymptomatic than reported? To determine the danger of the spread of the virus, the issue is not the number of cases in light of who is NOT participating in society, it is the number of cases relative to those who are still actively participating in society.
What is the worst-case tolerable infection rate, 10%? Even that seems low given the low death rate, but assume it is 10%. So for our 1,000 cases that means 10,000 people would have to not be social distancing for it to be troublesome. There are a hell of lot more than 10,000 people who get the Essential Worker Participation Trophy in Meck Co, it is in the hundreds of thousands. The numbers just don't hold water.
I don’t think you understand how social distancing works. You do not need 100% isolation to completely stop the spread. In fact, in an extreme example, if you only had .001% of people social distancing but it was the first few people in the county affected and there was no travel, then that would completely stop the spread (this isn’t realistic, it’s just to explain why you don’t need perfect distancing).
In addition to social distancing, isolation (known infections) and quarantine (known exposures) are also taking place to greatly slow spread.
The numbers in Mecklenburg Co will continue to grow for months. If social distancing continues at the same rate, the growth will be modest. If things open up more, the growth will be faster. Hopefully testing capacity and turnaround time will greatly ramp up so we can track and isolate even more effectively so social distancing can be loosened up.
I know it is hard to comprehend for the political hacks on here, but there is a big distance between #fakenews / "this was all overblown" and SHUT EVERYTHING DOWN NOW UNTIL 2022 OR WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE BECAUSE INTERNET POSTS = #SCIENCE AND #BUBONICPLAGUE. There is a reasonable middle ground with which this situation can be viewed.
Either that or this is much less dangerous than reported. Either way it is good news, but puts us back in the 45 degree snowday scenario.
Which again is good given the numbers, but it means that the numbers are skewed one way or another from what is being reported.
Wonderful. So please explain how the reciprocal 85%, 60%, 50%, and 30% respective usage in Mecklenburg County, with its population of 1.11 million and 1,000 cases and 19 deaths makes sense unless either the virus does not spread as easily as reported or is much more asymptomatic than reported? To determine the danger of the spread of the virus, the issue is not the number of cases in light of who is NOT participating in society, it is the number of cases relative to those who are still actively participating in society.
What is the worst-case tolerable infection rate, 10%? Even that seems low given the low death rate, but assume it is 10%. So for our 1,000 cases that means 10,000 people would have to not be social distancing for it to be troublesome. There are a hell of lot more than 10,000 people who get the Essential Worker Participation Trophy in Meck Co, it is in the hundreds of thousands. The numbers just don't hold water.
I think the numbers hold water just fine. I think your understanding of epidemiology and virology is flawed.
I understand math just fine. So in a city of 1.1 million people, assume 80% are social distancing and 20% are not (from what I've seen the breakdown is much more even, but I'll go with 20% for argument's sake). So take it to the extreme and assume that none of the 880,000 who are social distancing get infected, the virus doesn't even know they exist. That still leaves a city of 220,000 people with no social distancing. So over the course of a month, those 220,000 non-social-distancing people have resulted in 1,000 cases deemed severe enough to be tested and 125 deaths. Assuming no natural interference (i.e. pollen) the only logical conclusions that can be drawn from that is that either: (a) it is much less contagious than believed, or (b) it is much more asymptomatic than believed.
I understand math just fine. So in a city of 1.1 million people, assume 80% are social distancing and 20% are not (from what I've seen the breakdown is much more even, but I'll go with 20% for argument's sake). So take it to the extreme and assume that none of the 880,000 who are social distancing get infected, the virus doesn't even know they exist. That still leaves a city of 220,000 people with no social distancing. So over the course of a month, those 220,000 non-social-distancing people have resulted in 1,000 cases deemed severe enough to be tested and 125 deaths. Assuming no natural interference (i.e. pollen) the only logical conclusions that can be drawn from that is that either: (a) it is much less contagious than believed, or (b) it is much more asymptomatic than believed.
A normal flu has a mortality rate of 1/10 of 1%. This one is 2-3%. That is massively more deadly.
Math, ok. But this isn't a math problem. This is an epidemiology/virology/public health problem.
Who told you that 220,000 people failing to social distance resulting in 1,000 cases deemed severe enough to be tested and 125 deaths is illogical?
What I'm saying is that while it may be illogical to you, it's not illogical to those who actually understand the disciplines above.
Just because you don't have the education to understand a thing doesn't mean the thing doesn't make sense.