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NY-09 Special (The race to be the new Weiner)

TheShot

TheShot

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Results here: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2011/by_county/NY_US_House_0913.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

Expected to be close.

Heavy Dem district.

Dem spin: Werpin ran a bad campaign. (Like Coakley, Corzine and Deeds) and the results are local in scope and not a harbinger of anything to come.

GOP spin: Turner made the race a referendum on the President, and generally reliable Dem voters broke away and supported Turner, primarily over the economy and Israel.

Go.

ETA: Politico profile on the race, including all the relevant spin: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0911/63459.html
 
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I read in an AP article that orthodox jews in that district do not support gay marriage 2:1.

Small world.
 
Turner headed for a win.

First time seat has gone GOP since the 1920s.
 
This means the same as McHugh's seat in upste NY.
 
RJKarl said:
This means the same as McHugh's seat in upste NY.
Click to expand...

not really, but that's not a bad talking point.

dynamics of the mchugh race were considerably different, as you're aware. the "conservative" and "Republican" candidates combined for 52% of the vote in that race, but the schism between them (the Republican quit the race 3 days before the election and endorsed the winning Democrat) ensured GOP could not win.

that was the first real skirmish of the intra-party fights we saw replayed in 2010 in KY, DE, UT, AK and other places.

Also, a year earlier Obama had won McHugh's district 52-47--so the idea of a Dem winning there was not really novel. (Bush won it with 51% in 2004) McHughs was a popular and moderate GOPer who held the seat for a years, but it was hardly a strong GOP seat, and many thought McHugh was the only Republican who could have held it. Also, Hoffman was a sharp break from McHugh - he was the wrong sort of GOPer for that district.

by contrast, Obama won Weiner's seat 55-45. Kerry got 56 and Gore got 67. (that last number may appear inflated due to subsequent redistricting-i would need to look it up)

it's not the be all end all. but the WH also disregarded VA, MA and NJ--trashing the respective Dem campaigns in the media. i don't think you will see the same response this time.
 
we'll see if he holds it in a year.....I'd be very surprised if he does.
 
It's one race. Very micro. Could be that people didn't think the Dems deserved the seat after not being more active in forcing Weiner out.

Could be a dozen reasons.
 
KanhojiAngre said:
It's one race. Very micro. Could be that people didn't think the Dems deserved the seat after not being more active in forcing Weiner out.
Could be a dozen reasons.
Click to expand...

It is a sad state of affairs where Dems are scared to whip their Weiner out. Somewhere Bill Clinton is weeping at what's become of his party.
 
Thanks for the memories Mr. " Geithner's lap dog" Obama!!! I voted for change and the only thing that changed was you!!!!!!!
 
RJKarl said:
This means the same as McHugh's seat in upste NY.
Click to expand...

Which you were touting as a huge Dem victory at the time.

Both the elections just reinforce the notion that all politics is local. This one, however, is a bit more significant than McHugh's. Pubs split the vote amongst themselves in that election, and also nominated a very poor candidate. Here they ran some old fart Catholic in an Orthodox community that hasn't gone Pub since the 20s and still managed to win.

It isn't a harbinger of things to come, but it is not good news for Team Obama.
 
Looking at this more deeply, it is pretty hard to view this district as predictive of anything generally. Orthodox Jews make up a significant part of the district and they apparently were not pleased with Gay Marriage issues in New York.

That being said, you can't be pleased if you are Team Obama to have to put spin on this district - which obviously is a Democratic stronghold normally.
 
It's not good when a candidate says he isn't very exciting. The Dems will find someone to run in 2012.

The Senate race in MA is looking quite interesting at this point.
 
Everything is looking interesting. I think Obama is in the weeds and he had 14 months to spin them down. We shall see.
 
Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CCA) told reporters that Jews vote Republican because they are greedy and want to keep their wealth.
It’s a good thing he’s a democrat.
The Hill reported:

“I think Jewish voters will be Democratic and be for Obama in 2012, especially if you get a Republican candidate like [Texas] Gov. [Rick] Perry,” he said. “But there’s no question the Jewish community is much more bipartisan than it has been in previous years. There are Jews who are trending toward the Republican Party, some of it because of their misunderstanding of Obama’s policies in the Middle East, and some of it, quite frankly, for economic reasons. They feel they want to protect their wealth, which is why a lot of well-off voters vote for Republicans
 
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