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Obama Can't Count on Large Hispanic Vote...

RJKarl said:
You are really dreaming.

FL is always in play, but if the GOP supports the Ryan budget they are dead in FL. It's basically that simple.

There WON'T be a Hispanic drop off. The anti-Hispanic laws in multiple states will guarantee that. If you think Hispanics will vote for a GOP POTUS who will encourage those types of laws you are being delusional.

Hispanics understand that encouraging the GOP will create DWH stops.
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At this point we just have to wait and see. A lot of things will be more clear in January 2012.
 
What you have to hope for is the GOP state legislatures won't continue acting the way they have been since January.

Each state that adds a voter suppression law or anti-immigrant law drives more Hispanic votes to Obama.
 
RJKarl said:
What you have to hope for is the GOP state legislatures won't continue acting the way they have been since January.

Each state that adds a voter suppression law or anti-immigrant law drives more Hispanic votes to Obama.
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I don't think this is true at all, unless there are a lot of illegal alien registered voters out there. Most hispanics I talk to that came here legally resent the fact that the illegals have taken a short cut. I don't think they want to see illegals deported, but they sure as heck want them to go to the back of the line they had to stand in when they first came here.
 
84Deac said:
I don't think this is true at all, unless there are a lot of illegal alien registered voters out there. Most hispanics I talk to that came here legally resent the fact that the illegals have taken a short cut. I don't think they want to see illegals deported, but they sure as heck want them to go to the back of the line they had to stand in when they first came here.
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How do people without a SSN number register to vote? And what would be their motivation? If your an illegal alien, you're going to go into a public voting site after running under the radar for as long as you can?
 
Yep that's why the Hispani vote was almost 50/50 in CA before Prop 187 and now it is 70/30. It hasn't changed since then.

You can also look at the difference between W getting about 44% of the Hispanic vote and it dropping dramatically in 2008 when so many anti-Hispanic positions were starting to be taken.

I grant you that acutal results mean less than anaecdotal "evidence" sought out to support a preconceived position.
 
ONW said:
How do people without a SSN number register to vote? And what would be their motivation? If your an illegal alien, you're going to go into a public voting site after running under the radar for as long as you can?
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Sarcasm meter fail!
 
ncsportsnut1 said:
The article I read mentioned that four states gave Obama larger than expected Hispanic turnout and votes. If that isn't repeated in 2012, those states could easily swing toward a solid, articulate, proven Republican candidate. At least, that was that author's analysis. I haven't done my own but it sounds about right.

"Obama got a larger-than-expected boost from Hispanic voters in 2008 in four states in particular: Colorado, Florida, New Mexico and Nevada, including becoming the first Democrat since at least 1988 to get a majority of Hispanic votes in Florida."
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So are they say that all of those states swung on Hispanic votes?

That's my question...not where did he do well, but where does it matter?

My operating assumption has been that most places that are close, the Hispanic vote isn't large enough to make much of a difference until/unless they vote like blacks, which they don't.

So basically I'm asking if anyone can challenge that.
 
PhDeac said:
I think it's more about holding serve and transforming the map long term.
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IMO in the long term the country becomes more independent and libertarian. Forced austerity in the face of a 10-20T dollar debt will help that.
 
There are 600,000 Puerto Ricans in FL. Let's say 300,000 vote.

The difference between 55-45 and 70-30 is:

165,000-135,000
vs.
210,000-90,000


45,000 votes can make a difference.
 
RJKarl said:
There are 600,000 Puerto Ricans in FL. Let's say 300,000 vote.

The difference between 55-45 and 70-30 is:

165,000-135,000
vs.
210,000-90,000


45,000 votes can make a difference.
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Does any single demographic have a 50% voter turnout? I WISH we could get more than 50% of eligible voters to show up for every election.
 
Don't disagree with you on that. I'm just curious if 50% is the norm.
 
Actually over 60% of eligible voters voted in 2008.

I woudln't be surprised (if voter supression laws don't keep them away) to see the Hispanic vote go up another 5-7% of their eligible voters this time.

Any increase helps the Dems.
 
What voter suppression laws?

Do you mean requiring people to have photo IDs to vote?
 
This idea of a monolithic "Hispanic vote" may have some utility for campaign strategy, but its a largely antiquated terminology. I'm not sure how many more election cycles we will continent to segment voting blocks like this. Additionally, Hispanics have traditionally not voted strongly on party lines as a race group, but more often among geographical and socioeconomic lines.
 
If you look at the "photo ID" laws you'll see that some states allow things like gun pitcture IDs but not state university issued IDs.

Also photo IDs are clearly anti-old people and poor people.

Many states are limiting the hours of operation which is also voter suppression. They are making voting locations less accessible.

There is a litany of ways GOP run states are trying to lower the turnout.

If you can find me a Dem run state that is doing similar things, I'll be happy to say that state is doing so.
 
TownieDeac said:
This idea of a monolithic "Hispanic vote" may have some utility for campaign strategy, but its a largely antiquated terminology. I'm not sure how many more election cycles we will continent to segment voting blocks like this. Additionally, Hispanics have traditionally not voted strongly on party lines as a race group, but more often among geographical and socioeconomic lines.
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Actually the inverse is true. Tweny years ago Hispanics were totally up for grabs. Hell even W for 44%.

But since 2004, they have been going away from the GOP in droves.

I'd be stunned if the hispanic vote in the following states doesn't go at least 70% for the dems:

CA
AZ
NV
CO
NM
TX
GA
AL
FL
OH
And every other state that puts in anti=hispanic laws over the next sixteen months.
 
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