ncsportsnut1
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Two of the most reliable (not infallible) indicators of a President's reelection chances have been the "right track, wrong track" polling data and the Gallup Daily Job Approval Tracking.
1) Gallup does a 3 day rolling average. Each day they poll 1500 registered voters then average the 3 days. 1/9 to 1/11 shows 48% disapprove of President Obama. 43% approve. The link is to the daily results and you can see that these numbers actually reflect a slight improvement over a month ago, but still historically low numbers at this point in the re-election cycle. You can review the last 6 weeks and there are a significant number of days where the disapproval of President Obama was over 50%. If link doesn't work you can view all this on gallup.com.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx
2) Rasmussen Reports does a similar poll but uses likely voters. The most recent poll was 1/9 to 1/11, the same period as Gallup and used 1500 Likely Voters vs. 1500 Registered Voters. 52% disapproved and 47% approved. Rasmussen pollsters tend to "push" participants to decide and count "leans" to eliminate undecideds. It's interesting that the percentage gap between the approve/disapprove numbers in each poll was 5%.
3) Right track/Wrong track: A number of firms track this. I don't have access to the trends lines but you can follow it's firms to get an idea. The right track #s in several polls have improved by 4% over the past 5 or 6 weeks, most likely due to the decrease of the published unemployment rate to under 9%, and possibly some of the weekly economic news. I have no basis for that other than my opinion. The three most recent polls (Reuters, CBS, Rasmussen) cover similar periods.
Reuters 1/2 - 1/9 32.0 vs. 63.0 -31
CBS News 1/4 - 1/8 29.0 vs. 65.0 -36
Rasmussen 1/2-1/8 24.0 vs. 69.0 -45
Each of these polls compared to their most recent prior poll reflect a 4% improvement in "right track" percentage.
Thought you might enjoy the info.
1) Gallup does a 3 day rolling average. Each day they poll 1500 registered voters then average the 3 days. 1/9 to 1/11 shows 48% disapprove of President Obama. 43% approve. The link is to the daily results and you can see that these numbers actually reflect a slight improvement over a month ago, but still historically low numbers at this point in the re-election cycle. You can review the last 6 weeks and there are a significant number of days where the disapproval of President Obama was over 50%. If link doesn't work you can view all this on gallup.com.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Job-Approval.aspx
2) Rasmussen Reports does a similar poll but uses likely voters. The most recent poll was 1/9 to 1/11, the same period as Gallup and used 1500 Likely Voters vs. 1500 Registered Voters. 52% disapproved and 47% approved. Rasmussen pollsters tend to "push" participants to decide and count "leans" to eliminate undecideds. It's interesting that the percentage gap between the approve/disapprove numbers in each poll was 5%.
3) Right track/Wrong track: A number of firms track this. I don't have access to the trends lines but you can follow it's firms to get an idea. The right track #s in several polls have improved by 4% over the past 5 or 6 weeks, most likely due to the decrease of the published unemployment rate to under 9%, and possibly some of the weekly economic news. I have no basis for that other than my opinion. The three most recent polls (Reuters, CBS, Rasmussen) cover similar periods.
Reuters 1/2 - 1/9 32.0 vs. 63.0 -31
CBS News 1/4 - 1/8 29.0 vs. 65.0 -36
Rasmussen 1/2-1/8 24.0 vs. 69.0 -45
Each of these polls compared to their most recent prior poll reflect a 4% improvement in "right track" percentage.
Thought you might enjoy the info.
