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Offical Sports Betting Thread

I don't feel like I've gotten to bet Clemson as a home underdog in a long time. Plus, with it being FSU's second road game in a row (and in a tough location at that) the +2.5 jumped out to me. I thought about the ML, but every time I do that on a short line, I end up getting screwed.

Found the answer I was curious about:
This is the first time that Clemson is a home underdog since Oct. 1, 2016, when it was 1-point underdogs to No. 3 Louisville, a game they won outright.
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Pilchard said:
Clemson has a new OC and a new QB. Not shocking that it’s taken the offense time to coalesce. Hard to say because they’ve played two crappy teams, but looking like the Tiger offense is starting to click.

Also, Clemson has been super tough at home. IIRC, they haven’t lost a home ACC game in a while.
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Pittsburgh in 2016 on a last second field goal, right? Before that, Jameis and the Noles came in and whipped them pretty good in 2013. That's pretty impressive to only lose two home conference games in a decade.
 
Pilchard what are your thoughts on Cuse -13.5 against Army? Not always the easiest to figure out exactly how option style games will go and I know you’ve been wait and see on Syracuse but I’m surprised that line is below two touchdowns was expecting -17 or so
 
There is no more reliable bet over the past decade plus than service academies getting double digits. It's hovering near 65%. Realize that ND bucked that trend to open the season against Navy, but the trend returned to form with the Memphis/Navy game and the UTSA/Army games. So, Army is essentially an auto-play.

With that said, Cuse has an old DC who I love: Rocky Long. He has toiled in the West as a HC and DC for years, and no one is better than Rocky Long in prepping for the option (his ATS and under record against Air Force was epic). So, Long will have Cuse ready for the option.

Hall-of-Fame-Profile-Rocky-Long.jpg

OTOH, its a bad spot for Cuse as they just won a nationally televised game at Purdue (that win for Cuse was a little deceiving as Purdue had 4 TOs) and host Clemson (that may be a great spot for Cuse next week - Syracuse almost always plays Clemson tough). So, it's not a great spot for Cuse.

I will either play Army small or pass.
 
Yeah I think it'll be interesting to see how the season runs out for Cuse but they're one of the teams where removing preseason anchoring (which you really don't want to do for forward looking purposes given the predictive nature of including past performance/recruiting) indicates how well they've really played this year relative to expectations.
 
Yes, Cuse's power rating was dragged down by priors as they collapsed at the end of last year; they did the same last year as Cuse dominated early and then hit a wall. Who else besides Cuse and Colorado do you have on that list of teams?
Arizona?
OU?
FIU?
Texas State?
 
Pilchard said:
Yes, Cuse's power rating was dragged down by priors as they collapsed at the end of last year; they did the same last year as Cuse dominated early and then hit a wall. Who else besides Cuse and Colorado do you have on that list of teams?
Arizona?
OU?
FIU?
Texas State?
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Washington may be on top of the list.
 
Depends on what the cash out option is. The lowest available alternate line on DK is Colorado +16 at +133 (42%). If you can cash out for more than 40% or more of your bet, I would take it (I doubt that the book is offering much, because the books markup the cash out percentage; it's almost always a better move to just bet on the other side, but the line has moved so much which makes taking Oregon not an option, as there's a good chance for a negative middle if the game falls between 15 to 21 point Oregon win).
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
That Rutgers +24 is just staring at me
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Tempted by that line as well. Michigan has played like crap against really awful teams (0-3 ATS), and Rutgers has played well. Rutgers is by far the best defense that Michigan has played against, and the Wolverines somehow have scored no more than 35 against the trio of ECU, UNLV and Bowling Green (Marshall, Vandy and Liberty scored more against those three teams). Rutgers +24 seems almost too easy. FWIW, last year, Rutgers was catching 26 at home against Michigan, and the Wolverines scored 52 (winning 52-17). OTOH, two years ago, Rutgers hung with Michigan in the Big House losing 20-13.

Based on this year's results only, Michigan has no business being ranked in the top 10 or favored by 24 against a decent team. UM has played three dog teams and done absolutely nothing. Makes me a little scared that they will turn it on this week, but its either Rutgers or no play.
 
I fired on Rutgers +24.5

Also in the niche betting world: Virginia under team total 18.5 points. I'm a believer in State's defense where they aren't up against a top 10-15 offense and Virginia's offense has struggled heavily at times. Factor in that their freshman QB ended up with his confidence totally deflated and as far as I can tell it's not obvious who gets the start there. I think this is a safer play than the State -9.5 even though I also think that's a fine play. UVA is not good
 
I'm sure it's been discussed before but saw a rundown in an article about Wong Teasers for the NFL (working on the premise that most NFL games finish at a 3 or 7 point key number). Basically for 6 point teasers you tease the underdog if they're +1.5, +2, +2.5, or (in some cases +3) and favorites if they're -7.5, -8, -8.5, (or in some cases -9). This is hitting JUST above the needed EV to be profitable over the last 5 years and so far this year teams in those games with the teased number are 16-2 through two weeks.

Gets you across two key numbers as the underlying premise. I've got a small teaser on the Saints +8, Steelers +8.5, and Ravens -2.5
 
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Packers are playing the Saints. The six point teaser would have the Packers at +4. Generally not a great idea to tease teams playing each other.

One other point on teasers, the best value in teasers are games with low O/Us, the extra points have more value in lower scoring games.
 
Pilchard said:
Packers are playing the Saints. The six point teaser would have the Packers at +4. Generally not a great idea to tease teams playing each other.

One other point on teasers, the best value in teasers are games with low O/Us, the extra points have more value in lower scoring games.
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Lol whoops I meant I've got the Steelers +8.5 against the Raiders not the Packers not sure how I got that mixed up.

And yeah since 6 points is 6 points no matter what lower totals are better
 
tigerswood said:
This line has gone from 6 down to 4...
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Kansas State's QB Will Howard may miss the game. That changes things. Not only has the line dropped, but the total has dropped 6 points. That's the risk with taking games early in the week. If you are on the right side, you get CLV, but if an unexpected injury arises (Howard played the full game against Mizzou last week), you get hosed.
 
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