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Official '16-17 NBA Thread: not with a bang but a whimper

Wish someone had put together a similar vid of the last Sixers-Nuggets game this year.

They probably ran 25 pick and rolls against Jah.
 
Ayo said:
Ugh, not being a top 30 player and being ranked #25 are mutually exclusive events.
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Correct.

Placing Klay outside my top 30, and being confident in my ranking, is not mutually exclusive from recognizing that a reasonable person might place Klay at the very low end of their top 30. That person would still be wrong, but not blatantly wrong. Claiming Klay is a sneaky top 10 player, or even a top 20 player, is blatantly wrong
 
Ayo said:
Ugh, not being a top 30 player and being ranked #25 are mutually exclusive events.
Click to expand...

Correct.

Placing Klay outside my top 30, and being confident in my ranking, is not mutually exclusive from recognizing that a reasonable person might place Klay at the very low end of their top 30. That person would still be wrong, but not blatantly wrong. Claiming Klay is a sneaky top 10 player, or even a top 20 player, is blatantly wrong
 
RChildress107 said:
I gave you 5 advanced stats that all showed marked decline from Klay's peak in 14-15. You came back with 3 point shooting percentage.

You can get worse at basketball while maintaining your shooting percentages.
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I also showed that team defense improved from 14-15 to 15-16.

I also showed how two other "super" teams" took time to get into the flow of the new squads. Further, the Ws team D will be less without either of their rim protectors.

With the massive turnover of the roster and the fact that this year hasn't even reached the halfway point, it is not accurate to use stats for that short a period of time.

I'm heading for a few hours...not avoiding you...

Here are my two basic points- 14-15 to 15-16, his overall numbers are almost all within the margin of error.

It's too early to use stats from a totally revamped team versus one that had played together as unit for several years. It doesn't happen overnight.
 
RJKarl said:
I also showed that team defense improved from 14-15 to 15-16.

I also showed how two other "super" teams" took time to get into the flow of the new squads. Further, the Ws team D will be less without either of their rim protectors.

With the massive turnover of the roster and the fact that this year hasn't even reached the halfway point, it is not accurate to use stats for that short a period of time.

I'm heading for a few hours...not avoiding you...

Here are my two basic points- 14-15 to 15-16, his overall numbers are almost all within the margin of error.

It's too early to use stats from a totally revamped team versus one that had played together as unit for several years. It doesn't happen overnight.
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There was a clear decline in his numbers from 14-15 to 15-16. The decline was visible across all advanced metrics. I'll grant you that KD's presence explains at least some of the further decline in his numbers this year.
 
The thing with Klay that is tricky is that saying he's not 1 of the 20 best players in the league means that Golden State cruised to a title, and then won 73(!) games the next season with just 1 top 10 and 1 top 20 player (Steph and Draymond) in the league at the time? That seems impossible. A team this historically great has to, by definition, have great players. The NBA is a star driven league and the Warriors have utterly smoked the entire league without a star studded roster? It just doesn't add up. No other historically great NBA team has had less than 2 top 10 players in the league at that time.

I get the system is great for Klay, but the system also only works because Klay and Steph are both historically great shooters at such a level they have basically broken the matrix. There isn't another shooting guard you could put on that team who wouldn't make them significantly worse - the spacing they live on would crumble without his absurd range and release and on the defensive side he's also a huge contributor that allows them to switch everything.
 
Raw numbers are BS. For instance, last year, Draymond's role was bigger than it was the year before. Thus, it will impact other players. This isn't the only type of factor that change raw numbers that impact "advanced stats".

BYW, Klay's playoff numbers were much better in 15-16 than 14-14. When they needed him, he excelled. Doesn't that count? The ENTIRE season should be part of his numbers.

It's amazing to me that anyone who understands basketball at all could ever think JJ Redick is a Top 4 defender at SG as the "advanced stats" say. At best, he is mediocre. You could basically drop a chimp into that defensive line-up and his numbers would be middle of the pack.
 
The response to that is:

1. Draymond is a top 10 player
2. The Warriors bench was great (allowing them to rack up regular season wins)
3. The Warriors system, much like the Spurs, thrives on players knowing and sticking to their roles.

The Spurs won 5 championships with only 1 top 10 player. If guys 3-10 are all above replacement level and know their roles a team with "only" two top 10 players will vastly outperform a big 3 with trash around them.
 
the klay thompson discussion started 216 posts ago. that's 17% of the entire NBA thread. ffs let's all agree to let it die until he wins mvp of the 2017 finals.
 
RJKarl said:
Raw numbers are BS. For instance, last year, Draymond's role was bigger than it was the year before. Thus, it will impact other players. This isn't the only type of factor that change raw numbers that impact "advanced stats".

BYW, Klay's playoff numbers were much better in 15-16 than 14-14. When they needed him, he excelled. Doesn't that count? The ENTIRE season should be part of his numbers.

It's amazing to me that anyone who understands basketball at all could ever think JJ Redick is a Top 4 defender at SG as the "advanced stats" say. At best, he is mediocre. You could basically drop a chimp into that defensive line-up and his numbers would be middle of the pack.
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The advanced stats don't say JJ redick is a top 4 defender. RPM puts him at 69th among SG. Drtg puts him at 47th among all starting guards. DWS puts him at 65th among all guards.
 
RChildress107 said:
It's almost like we should reserve that level of discussion for top 10 or top 20 players
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or it's as if someone just likes the sound of their own posts a lot when they think it's reasonable to rank him 25th but will argue with the entire thread for half of the 220 posts about him being top 30.
 
RChildress107 said:
The response to that is:

1. Draymond is a top 10 player
2. The Warriors bench was great (allowing them to rack up regular season wins)
3. The Warriors system, much like the Spurs, thrives on players knowing and sticking to their roles.

The Spurs won 5 championships with only 1 top 10 player. If guys 3-10 are all above replacement level and know their roles a team with "only" two top 10 players will vastly outperform a big 3 with trash around them.
Click to expand...

WTF does that have to do with your premise that Klay is in decline? If you use his numbers for the entire season, at worst 14-15 and 15-16 are equal. It could be argued that his playoffs in 15-16 make his overall season better than 14-15./
 
RChildress107 said:
The advanced stats don't say JJ redick is a top 4 defender. RPM puts him at 69th among SG. Drtg puts him at 47th among all starting guards. DWS puts him at 65th among all guards.
Click to expand...

12-28-2016, 12:40 PM #1110
RedSoxFaithful RedSoxFaithful is offline
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15th among NBA starters in defensive rating last year. (3rd at SG, behind Green, Korver, and Redick)

12th among NBA starters in opposing FG% past 15 ft. last year. (4th at SG, behind Redick, Roberson, and Lee)
 
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