For those that enjoy the nitty gritty, here is my updated breakdown of bowl possibilities after digesting the projections from SI, SB Nation and CBS and doing more research. This includes more than a little speculation on my part. I’m eager to see ESPN’s projections.
GASPARILLA BOWL (Tampa, FL)
Thursday, December 20th at 8pm against an AAC opponent
30% likely
I continue to think this is one of the most likely destinations for Wake, but I’m not as confident as I was yesterday. The 10th ACC team will head either to this bowl or to the First Responders Bowl in Dallas. But a VT win could leave 11 ACC teams as bowl eligible, pushing one ACC team lower in the bowl hierarchy. SB Nation has raised the idea that Miami (FL) would be a good geographic fit. Also, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Wake try to steer itself away from this one given the proximity to exams.
BIRMINGHAM BOWL (Birmingham, AL)
Saturday, December 22nd against an AAC opponent
30% likely
The ACC will send a team to this bowl if 1) VT becomes bowl eligible AND 2) the SEC doesn’t fill their slot. If I follow it correctly, the SEC will not fill this slot if they put 3 teams into the New Year’s Six bowls (presumably Georgia, Florida and LSU). If a team like LSU falls out of the NY6, I think the SEC uses their spot in Birmingham and this bowl is off the table for Wake/ACC.
FIRST RESPONDERS BOWL (Dallas, TX)
Wednesday, December 26th at 1:30pm against a conference TBD
20% likely
This bowl only comes into the picture in one of two scenarios.
Scenario #1: the ACC sends the 10th team here instead of Tampa. This doesn’t make much sense unless the ACC finds Tampa unattractive because of the proximity to exams.
Scenario #2: if VT becomes an 11th bowl eligible team AND the SEC fills their spot in Birmingham AND the Big 10 doesn’t fill their slot. This scenario would have the ACC basically filling this spot as an at-large team. Note that no one seems to think that the Big 10 will fill this bowl slot.
QUICK LANE BOWL (Detroit, MI)
Wednesday, December 26th at 1:30pm against a Big 10 team
15% likely
Realistically, this bowl likely only comes into the picture if Virginia Tech does not become bowl eligible. Even then, it would require another ACC team to get pushed down to either Tampa or Dallas. That could happen if, for example, there was a geographic pairing of Miami and the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa.
OTHER BOWLS
5% likely
If VT loses to Marshall, I guess there is a chance Wake ends up in Shreveport. But there are probably better geographic fits for that game, and it would still require another ACC team to head to either Tampa or Dallas.
If VT becomes bowl eligible and the Birmingham Bowl isn’t available for the 11th ACC team, the most obvious choice would seem to be Dallas. But if that falls through, the other options are not clear. Maybe the Frisco Bowl outside of Dallas, TX? Most of the others look like they will fill their slots with their normal conference affiliations.
I’m guessing there is no chance that Wake stays at home, although I will be anxious about that until everything is settled. It’s hard to envision that an 11th ACC team would be shut out of both Dallas and Birmingham.
The teams projected to say at home are teams like Wyoming and Miami (OH). One set of projections that came out this morning had BYU staying home.