Definitely. Platform doesn't matter as long as they get to be as mean as possible and own the libs.
disagree in that I don’t think it’s a Nate Silver problem, but something deeper about how polls are conducted in modern America and why every poll that has been generally accurate for decades is no longer reliable
disagree in that I don’t think it’s a Nate Silver problem, but something deeper about how polls are conducted in modern America and why every poll that has been generally accurate for decades is no longer reliable
So on the NC election site, there are 250 precincts outstanding and 100 of them are wake county, so....
like what - construction-wise?
disagree in that I don’t think it’s a Nate Silver problem, but something deeper about how polls are conducted in modern America and why every poll that has been generally accurate for decades is no longer reliable
Nate Silver's reputation is done. Not exactly his fault as he mainly took poll as the input. The problem is polling in this country is broken. There is no way to predict all the lost rural vote or how people now troll polls. Polls will have to start oversampling republicans as a hedge and increase the "N" sample size to help offset the error rate.
It is still way to early for anyone to believe their guy has won or lost.
It is still way to early for anyone to believe their guy has won or lost.
exactly
the problem isn’t the methodology used, it’s the inputs are flawed
It is still way to early for anyone to believe their guy has won or lost.
here is some valuable information i wish i had read earlier in the night. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/11/2020-election-night-cheat-sheet/616969/
One important bit is to ignore PA, WI, and MI tonight as they are all just starting to count mail-ins. Therefore there is likely to be a "red mirage" of election day R voters tonight. Instead, the author suggests paying attention to Minnesota - which is currently trending heavy Biden. Hopefully that trend has some relevance to the rest of the Blue Wall.
exactly
the problem isn’t the methodology used, it’s the inputs are flawed