Official Wake-Arkansas Game Thread

[Wakeforest22890]

Odds of hitting a three to tie if the defense doesn't foul is much higher than the odds of a team making the first free throw, missing the second, and tipping the ball/scoring it to tie the game.

 

[Milhouse]

just say ditto

 

[TheIshThatSaved WakeForest]

So, will CMM be playing in our next game?

Most likely.

 

[bmoneydeac]

Odds of hitting a three to tie if the defense doesn't foul is much higher than the odds of a team making the first free throw, missing the second, and tipping the ball/scoring it to tie the game.

I was thinking Lord Kenpom wrote on this and it's actually pretty close. May be wrong tho.

 

[BillBrasky]

Do people talk all nerdy and shit about UFC? Maybe I should get into that. Because statistical probability talk is my least favorite thing about sports in 2015.

Talking Ken Pom before Christmas is such a goddamn joke.

 

[Tobacco Road]

Odds of hitting a three to tie if the defense doesn't foul is much higher than the odds of a team making the first free throw, missing the second, and tipping the ball/scoring it to tie the game.

What are they?

 

[RChildress107]

What are they?

I'd guess ~30% vs. ~8% (75% make the free throw X 95% miss the second X 30% get the rebound X 40% make the shot before time expires)

Those last two estimates feel very generous, especially the last one.

 

[bmoneydeac]

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/yet_another_study_about_fouling_when_up_3

Here is what I remembered.

 

[Rafi]

http://kenpom.com/blog/index.php/weblog/entry/yet_another_study_about_fouling_when_up_3

Here is what I remembered.

Thanks for the link. So it appears the strategies are essentially equal, though defending worked slightly more often than fouling.

 

[Deac83]

Of course we are so 'lucky'. I remember the State 4 ot game that came to be when this didn't work. More importantly, was the 94 ACC semi with UNC which sent that game to OT and kept us from the finals.

I'm sure we've done this before, either intentionally or accidentally, but I think we've been a 'defend' team traditionally.

 

[Lohengrin]

Naturally, you also face a somewhat higher chance of losing the game when fouling because if the opponent rebounds and makes a FG there's a good chance for an "and 1" on the shot.

 

[Tobacco Road]

Thanks, bmoney.

 

[RChildress107]

Thanks for the link. So it appears the strategies are essentially equal, though defending worked slightly more often than fouling.

I wish the article had broken down expected points for fouling vs. defending.

I'd imagine many of the games in Kenpom's sample ended on a possession of the defending team. I imagine there were several games where the trailing team made a 3 to tie the game (a bad result) but the defending team still won by going back down the court and scoring.

This seems like it would happen less frequently after the made free throw/rebound/putback scenario which would also tie the game. Kenpom doesn't seem to account for this and I wonder if it is statistically significant.

 

[Tobacco Road]

It's accounted for in the way that it matters by who won.