My plan when I was talking to all y'all was to stay with Germany and then stab him the very next move (which was going to be a spring move) by basically doing what I told y'all I was going to do that fall turn (Rum-Ukr, Con/Ank convoyed to Sev to take Mos).
Then I convinced myself that if I lied to y'all and then did that move the very next turn that nobody would have come to my aid against Germany. So decided to bide my time.
My biggest mistake was not realizing that Italy was going to get a build after I took Serbia from them so I thought Naples was going to be a free SC pickup that next year. Once Germany told me during the build turn that Italy would build a fleet in Naples it hit me that I fucked up as I had already moved my BLA fleet to Con that previous fall and going right back to the BLA would tip Germany off of what was coming. So I tried to wait and wait for another good opportunity and it never came.
Plus, I dithered way too long with Italy instead of going for the kill and fucked myself there. If I get to 14 and Germany is at 15 or 16 I think we go 17/17 there.
I didn't know Germany was feeding Italy my intentions (which I only half-stuck with my last message to Germany) until Germany told me after the game was pretty much over. Italy telling me that at any point would have changed my calculus from looking for the perfect stab opportunity to maybe just fucking doing it because then I would have known he wasn't the good ally I believed he was until we squabbled over Venice in fall 1907 (I think).