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Possible Wake Forest Coaching Candidates Analysis

Say Hey Deac said:
I'll take Miller over Odom based on their resumes, although if it comes down to the 2 of them, because one can make an argument either way based solely on their coaching resumes, I think you have to trust your AD to make the decision based on the interview(s), references, and other sources of info.

I do think folks lose sight sometimes that we're talking about UNC-Greensboro. I mean, shit, man. UNC-Greensboro? That is not a basketball powerhouse. I can kind of get UNC-Wilmington being good at basketball, because Wilmington is a fun town. Respectfully, when I think UNC-Greensboro, I think about a school primarily for chicks. To turn that into a successful basketball program is pretty impressive.
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Sorta like Florida State and football? Florida State College for Women to National champion in football in 50 years.
 
rspDeac said:
I mean, I don't think Wes beat a top 100 team until his 6th year (which is where the last 3 starts), so it is kind of cherry picked to make your guy look better. Although I would still think Odom would be a terrible hire, based on top 100 wins his early trajectory looks better than Wes at a worse school (average KP rank before Wes 216, average KP rank before Odom 285)
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You compare their last three years because those are their last three years that we'd be basing hiring them on. It's not like we're considering hiring Odom three years from now vs Miller right now.
 
AGING DEAC said:
No Oats to WF---He signed 5 year extension with Buffalo
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Not necessarily off the table. Don't have any inside info but could just be Oats negotiating a higher buyout to help take care of Buffalo when he leaves as well as giving him a higher base salary.
 
Its been previously discussed but Aging Deac missed it:jerkit:. Oats extension is not a barrier, its leverage for him. The whole contract is worth 4.25 million dollars over 5 years, not that much money for a coach of Oats' caliber. Doubt Buffalo keeps him, unless he decides he wants to stay there after receiving much more lucrative offers.
 
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AGING DEAC said:
No Oats to WF---He signed 5 year extension with Buffalo
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That is only a price increase for Oats. And more money for Buffalo to hire his successor.

In the extension announcement, the Buffalo AD mentioned that they could not go 2 or 3 million.
 
rspDeac said:
I mean, I don't think Wes beat a top 100 team until his 6th year (which is where the last 3 starts), so it is kind of cherry picked to make your guy look better. Although I would still think Odom would be a terrible hire, based on top 100 wins his early trajectory looks better than Wes at a worse school (average KP rank before Wes 216, average KP rank before Odom 285)
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That's fair and as I've said before, I like other guys ahead of Miller - just mean this for Miller compared to Odom.

It also shows that perhaps Odom can be on the same track as Miller if he stays for another few years at UMBC. However, since we know that Miller has taken a team (any team) to the top 100 and the NCAA Tournament means that I believe he has shown that he can take that step with a program. Odom hasn't taken that step and therefore I find him to be a bigger risk. Hiring a new coach to me is all about minimizing the potential risks since all coaches are going to have them.
 
Just saw the extension terms. Oats buyout is only $750K to the University. Oats definitely still on the table, just depends on if he wants to leave for one of the opportunities that will come his way.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Hiring a new coach to me is all about minimizing the potential risks since all coaches are going to have them.
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I would say balancing the risk with the high ceiling. An older coach with a longer track record may well be a lower risk but also have a lower ceiling.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
That's fair and as I've said before, I like other guys ahead of Miller - just mean this for Miller compared to Odom.

It also shows that perhaps Odom can be on the same track as Miller if he stays for another few years at UMBC. However, since we know that Miller has taken a team (any team) to the top 100 and the NCAA Tournament means that I believe he has shown that he can take that step with a program. Odom hasn't taken that step and therefore I find him to be a bigger risk. Hiring a new coach to me is all about minimizing the potential risks since all coaches are going to have them.
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FYI, Odom's taken a team to the NCAAs too and actually won a game..in his second season. It took Wes 6 years to have a winning record and 7 to make the NCAAs. We might as well keep Manning if we're going to wait 6 years to be above .500. I think Wes Miller's a pretty good coach...but if he takes as long as he did at UNCG to turn things around, it's going to be a while. And are we willing to wait that long? We need a quicker turn around than that, imo.
 
RacerDeac said:
You compare their last three years because those are their last three years that we'd be basing hiring them on. It's not like we're considering hiring Odom three years from now vs Miller right now.
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Or you could look at the entire body of work for both coaches and make decisions based on that. Like it took Wes 6 years to start to show improvement from the previous coach as he on average was over 50 spots worse on kenpom when comparing his first 4-5 years (depending on how when you want to start counting it as his team) to the previous regime's last 5 years.

You could just say Odom is 5-13 against top 100 teams and Miller is 11-31, and I personally wouldn't really choose either of them.
 
Deaconblue said:
That is only a price increase for Oats. And more money for Buffalo to hire his successor.

In the extension announcement, the Buffalo AD mentioned that they could not go 2 or 3 million.
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Buffalo fans should give their AD props. He negotiated a good deal and I’m sure a nice buyout then named Oats’ price. Bodes well for getting the next coach.
 
rspDeac said:
Or you could look at the entire body of work for both coaches and make decisions based on that. Like it took Wes 6 years to start to show improvement from the previous coach as he on average was over 50 spots worse on kenpom when comparing his first 4-5 years (depending on how when you want to start counting it as his team) to the previous regime's last 5 years.

You could just say Odom is 5-13 against top 100 teams and Miller is 11-31, and I personally wouldn't really choose either of them.
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But then it comes down to who do you take if you strike out on home run tier hire? I want Shaka, Oats, or someone like Matta too but if we don't land them who do you want to hire?
 
Deacs9394 said:
FYI, Odom's taken a team to the NCAAs too and actually won a game..in his second season. It took Wes 6 years to have a winning record and 7 to make the NCAAs. We might as well keep Manning if we're going to wait 6 years to be above .500. I think Wes Miller's a pretty good coach...but if he takes as long as he did at UNCG to turn things around, it's going to be a while. And are we willing to wait that long? We need a quicker turn around than that, imo.
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And if we wait to see how long it takes Odom to take a team to the top 100 (meaning they're realistically trending towards an at large - not simply winning three games over bad teams in March, especially in the AE case v. this year's SoCon) we may wait forever because we have no idea if he can do that at all.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
But then it comes down to who do you take if you strike out on home run tier hire? I want Shaka, Oats, or someone like Matta too but if we don't land them who do you want to hire?
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Steve Prohm, Musselman, Mike Rhoades, John Brannen. Even if its one of those I'd still feel let down. However, my confidence level in Wake Forest getting it right is decreasing daily. Wake Forest might be the most poorly run University for a school of its status.
 
Odom and Wes Miller would be a disappointment. I expect a large majority of the fan base would feel similarly
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
But then it comes down to who do you take if you strike out on home run tier hire? I want Shaka, Oats, or someone like Matta too but if we don't land them who do you want to hire?
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Probably would go with John Brannen or Steve Forbes as both took over programs in roughly the same shape as miller but turned them around much faster.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
And if we wait to see how long it takes Odom to take a team to the top 100 (meaning they're realistically trending towards an at large - not simply winning three games over bad teams in March, especially in the AE case v. this year's SoCon) we may wait forever because we have no idea if he can do that at all.
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Similarly we don't know if Wes can do it in the ACC. He has no P6 experience at all. And, again, he took 6 years to even have a winning record. And it wasn't until his 7th year that he got a team into your arbitrary Top 100. So, again, why should I feel confident he can do it in the ACC at all? And will we have to wait as long for a turn around at Wake? Odom turned UMBC around immediately and has P6 experience. Those are my cherry-picked states and you have yours. So where we would agree is we'd like a more home run hire. Where we disagree is if it gets to these guys, I'm for the experience, quicker turns around, and winning an NCAA game.
 
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