With the recent run of close losses, there is lots of talk about "knowing how to win". In a friendly wager with a Deacon friend who believes the Deacs are constant chokers/folders, we bet on WFU's record in 5 point games since the 97-98 season. There have been 126 such games. Without researching, post your guesses on our choker/clutch win/loss percentage. I'll post the answer after 5 guesses.
Post Duncan Basketball Deacs, Chokers or Clutch?
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IAppreciateIt
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Redacted's '13 team played in as many 5 point games as in any team in the last 18 years.
Complacent Deac
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Were the 1997 Tim Duncan Deacs Chokers or Clutch?
57-69
57-69
We are 76 wins 50 losses in 5 point or less games. 60.3 winning percentage which exceeds our overall 57% winning percentage. All 5 coaches have won more of the 5 point games than they lost with Skip leading the way at 62%. Despite the media spin to the contrary, Coach Manning is 5-4 in such games this year. Even Scout Redacted won 56%. The LOWF myth that we can't win close games without Chill and Timmy is just that...a myth. As fans, we are so invested in it that we suffer the close losses more than we celebrate the close wins.
Isn't Manning 4-5 in games decided by 5 or fewer points?
Stand corrected. 4-4 this year. Wins UR, Va Tech, NCSU, Miami. Losses Iona, Syracuse, Clemson, UVA.
We lost to FSU in double OT too. I would count all OT games as being less than 5 points.
I thought about including all OT games in the post Duncan research. My guess is OT wins and losses by more than 5 points would do little to change the fact that we have been much more successful than not in close games over the past 18 years. Even this year when so many think we are so snake bitten, we are at worst one game under .500. The LOWF myth of not winning close games is actually the opposite. It's funny to me how quickly fans dismiss close wins yet suffer close losses.
DownEastDeac
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Though this data is not retrievable other than in bits and pieces via the fog of memory, a better way to determine "choke" or "clutch" would be to look at games where the margin was 5 points or less at the 3 minute mark and how we fared in those. Maybe it's just the long-time Wake fan in me, but I'd guess a decent number of those 76 "clutch" wins were where we had an 8-10 point lead with under 3 minutes to go and were saved from defeat not by making "clutch" plays down the stretch but by the clock hitting 0.00 and saving ourselves from self-destruction.
I would have included all OT games, but otherwise I agree with everything you wrote. Thanks for looking up all that info.
I "feel" the same way but I bet the outcome would be about the same for any school studied. For example, I bet there are UVA fans that are putting yesterday's game in the category you just described. They were up 13 late and almost "choked". They weren't "clutch". Right? Your scenario is exactly what happened for them yesterday. Games ebb and flow. You could make a case that UVA made a nice early 2nd half comeback. They also "choked" a 13 point lead very late in the game. But it goes in their "tough one out" category. The reality is we have won significantly more close games than we have lost. When you have a lead late, every narrow win feels like you almost gave it away. As Skip used to say, "they give scholarships too".
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Wakeforest22890
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Seems about right that we would be slightly better than .500 but this is pretty interesting.
Deacsfan27
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I actually did this research yesterday. Since 2002 we are 59-41. That includes all OT games.
So my friend said that surely the Goats and Devils with their HOF coaches are way more clutch in close games than LOWF over the past 18 years. Interestingly, the Goats have also won 76 5 point games like us but they have lost 54 for a 58% percentage. It should be noted that they have won 70% overall so they underperform by 12% points in close games. Coach K is 69-46 in 5 point games for 60%...just shy of our 60.3%. Of course, they have won 84% overall.
The moral of this story is NOT that LOWF has choked away a bunch of close games. It is that our neighbors have had more talent and win more games by big margins.
The moral of this story is NOT that LOWF has choked away a bunch of close games. It is that our neighbors have had more talent and win more games by big margins.