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Pre-ACC by the numbers

H

Haros

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We're through the first 12 games, which is enough to get some sense of who's been doing what as we enter conference play. I'll throw out a bunch of statistics first, then provide commentary in a subsequent post.

Minutes per game (rounded, includes a DNP as 0 min in average)
CJ - 33
Travis - 31
CMM - 28
Thomas - 24
Madison - 19
Cavanaugh - 18
Fischer - 17
Moto - 14
Rountree - 13


Minutes by class
Senior - 33 (16.5%)
Junior - 31 (15.5%)
Soph - 17 (8.5%)
Frosh - 119 (59.5%)

Usage (% of total possessions, including time on bench)
Travis - 20%
CJ - 17%
CMM - 13%
Thomas - 12%
Cavanaugh - 10%
Madison - 9%
Chase - 7%
Moto - 7%
Rountree - 5%


Offensive Rating
TEAM: 101.3 (unadjusted for SOS)
Rountree - 120.9
CJ - 110.4
Fischer - 107.9
Travis 103.8
CMM - 100.6
Cavanaugh - 95.4
Moto - 93.5
Thomas - 88.6
Madison - 85.0


Total % of available rebounds when on the floor
Thomas - 15.4%
Mckie - 15.1%
Moto - 13.9%
Rountree - 11.1%
Cavanaugh - 10.7%
CMM - 5.3%
Fischer - 4.6%
Madison - 3.5%
CJ - 3.0%

FT% by player (National average is 68.8%)
Chase - 83.3%
CJ - 81.0%
Cav - 78.9%
Mckie - 77.2%
CMM - 71.4%
Rountree - 52.9%
Thomas - 50.0%
Moto - 50.0%
Madison - 47.1%

FT% by class(National average is 68.8%)
Senior - 81.0%
Junior - 77.2%
Soph - 83.3%
All non-frosh - 79.0%
Frosh - 57.8%

3PA % by most to least attempts (National average is 33.4%)
TEAM: 37.8% (41st of 347 in country)
Harris - 43.5% (46 att)
Fischer - 50.0% (36 att)
Mckie - 22.6% (31 att)
Cavanaugh - 25.0% (24 att)
CMM - 45.5% (22 att)
Rountree - 40.0% (10 att)
Moto - 33.3% (9 att)
Madison 0% (2 att)
Upperclassmen (39.8% on 113 attempts)
Freshmen (34.3% on 67 attempts)

Team Offensive Efficiency: 101.3
First 6 games: 100.5 (Averaged 5.8th best game against said opponents)
Last 6: 102.1 (6.7th)

Team Defensive Efficiency: 98.5
First 6: 106.8 (8.3rd best defensive game against each opp. on average)
Last 6: 90.2 (3.8th best defensive game against each opp. on average)
 
CMM is considerably better than he was forecast to be. He's been a solid performer so far. I've been happy with most of the freshmen.
 
Travis's usage really annoys me.

He's shooting 43.1% from 2, 22.6% from 3 (25% of his shots), and turning it over 2.7 times per 40 minutes pace adjusted.

The only thing that I respect from him, by the numbers, is that he's getting to the line like an absolute boss at 8 FTA per 40 minutes pace adjusted. He's also back to rebounding like Travis.

I just wish CJ would take some of his shots...
 
Rotation:
The minutes seem about right for the most part, but I'd expect to see Travis, Thomas and Rountree see their minutes rise a bit headed into the conference season. Madison and Fischer seem the most likely to lose a few minutes.

60% of minutes is a lot for freshmen, but the light has started to go on for a few of them. One or two may be hitting an early wall.

Shooting/Usage/ORating: Our upperclassmen are unsurprisingly shooting better on the whole than the freshmen. Especially from the free throw line.

I expect the freshmen to shoot a better FT% the rest of the way, but there will be struggles there for many of them all season. That's one skill that isn't really coached so much as a player has to improve through thousands of reps in the off season. It's too late to change form during the season if it's a mechanical issue.

I'm happy to see the upperclassmen, in just 40% of the minutes, have taken 63% of our 3s, although Mckie could stand to shoot less. I'm also happy to see the % of possessions used skewing heavily in favor of Mckie and Harris, both in terms of raw numbers and adjusting for their time on the floor.

We're sorely going to miss CJ on the offensive end after this year. It's nice to see we have a better third option than Nikita Mescheriakov this season though.

Rebounding: Our big men can improve, but haven't been too bad overall. Where we (and [Redacted]'s teams historically) get killed is that we get absolutely nothing on the boards from our guards. Part of that is sending both guards back, leaving just 3 players on the offensive boards (a majority of teams send 1 back and crash four more often than not), but part is poor rebounding on the defensive end. CJ grabbing 3% of boards while on the court 33 minutes hurts.

Outlook:
The last 6 have been MUCH better defensively, even when accounting for the shift in schedule strength. While the raw defensive numbers show this, looking at how each performance stacked up against each opponent's other competition is instructive in this case, as we have put up one of the best defensive performances against many of our recent opponents while our defense was worse than average vis a vis the competition of our first six opponents.

I would think this improvement can be attributed to Rountree seeing a few more minutes and the young team gelling in general.

The offense is maybe marginally better, but has been decent but not good for most of the season.

It's still tough to see us winning more than 4-5 conference games, but at least we have more than 2 capable players on the court most of the time, something that's refreshing to see after the last two seasons.
 
I think the fact that we get to the line 2nd most in the country is going to cause us to get a little worse as the season goes on. There is no way we keep that up once conference season hits.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
I think the fact that we get to the line 2nd most in the country is going to cause us to get a little worse as the season goes on. There is no way we keep that up once conference season hits.
Click to expand...

Good point.
 
Some team stats courtesy of Draft Express.

What I love:

-Balance: Every guy who is getting 10 minutes per game is averaging at least 10 points per 40 minutes.
-Perimeter shooting efficiency: CJ, CMM, Chase, and Tree are all shooting 40%+ from beyond the arc.
-Chase is playing much better than the tape would suggest. He is a productive, lights out three point shooter.

What I don't love:
-Inside shooting percentage: Devin is shooting just 43.9% from 2. Cav is just 39%. McKie and Moto are both north of 50%, but they're primarily slashers. Devin and Cav are our least efficient scorers in general.
-Turnovers: Only CMM, Madison, and Aaron have positive A/TOs. Aaron is the team leader with 1.71 assists/turnover, CMM is at 1.50, and Madison is at 1.10. Travis, Cav, and Moto lead the team in turnover rate.

Why doesn't Aaron play more?
Why doesn't the staff tell Travis to stop taking so many threes?
What happened to CJ's aggressiveness/why doesn't the staff tell him to take more threes?
Will our PG play stabilize?
Will we continue to be solid on the boards?
 
Travis is shooting too many threes but I would still expect his percentage to go up. If my memory is correct he isn't shooting bad threes, and while he is at 22% this year, he was at 38% last year. Even his freshman year he hit 30%.

Also, I really can't blame him. He knows his only shot at the next level in America is to become a pure wing at his size and he seems to have been trying to transition to that since after his freshman year.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
Travis is shooting too many threes but I would still expect his percentage to go up. If my memory is correct he isn't shooting bad threes, and while he is at 22% this year, he was at 38% last year. Even his freshman year he hit 30%.

Also, I really can't blame him. He knows his only shot at the next level in America is to become a pure wing at his size and he seems to have been trying to transition to that since after his freshman year.
Click to expand...

Travis's percentages get much worse historically in-conference. Check the splits if you don't believe me. I'm guessing he finishes out around 40% 2FG and 20% 3fG.

I can't blame him in that sense, either. Where I can blame him is for taking shots out of rhythm and away from better shooters. 22% on a decent sample size is a sign for sensible players to quit shooting so many threes. Chase, a guy who plenty of folks on here hate, is making 50% of his 7 attempts per 40 minutes.
 
Strickland33 said:
Travis's percentages get much worse historically in-conference. Check the splits if you don't believe me. I'm guessing he finishes out around 40% 2FG and 20% 3fG.

I can't blame him in that sense, either. Where I can blame him is for taking shots out of rhythm and away from better shooters. 22% on a decent sample size is a sign for sensible players to quit shooting so many threes. Chase, a guy who plenty of folks on here hate, is making 50% of his 7 attempts per 40 minutes.
Click to expand...

Anecdotally it has seemed that Chase is much more comfortable with the speed of the game this year. He still has his obvious limitations, but nice that as a soph he could be developing into that kind of shooter even our great teams have lacked recently.

As far as Travis' three point shooting percentage, KenPom has been talking recently about the minimal effect of three point defense. That is to say teams that defend well against the three are teams that don't allow you to take them. For the most part once the shot goes up, the defense has little effect on whether it goes in or not. Basically you get diminishing returns on defensive effect the farther away from the basket.

So I'm not sure why Travis' percentage has dropped historically in conference play, but I don't think that necessarily forebodes it happening again, especially when he has been shooting well below his career average so far.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
Anecdotally it has seemed that Chase is much more comfortable with the speed of the game this year. He still has his obvious limitations, but nice that as a soph he could be developing into that kind of shooter even our great teams have lacked recently.

As far as Travis' three point shooting percentage, KenPom has been talking recently about the minimal effect of three point defense. That is to say teams that defend well against the three are teams that don't allow you to take them. For the most part once the shot goes up, the defense has little effect on whether it goes in or not. Basically you get diminishing returns on defensive effect the farther away from the basket.

So I'm not sure why Travis' percentage has dropped historically in conference play, but I don't think that necessarily forebodes it happening again, especially when he has been shooting well below his career average so far.
Click to expand...

Travis's career average is 32.7%. If you take out his blazing hot 2011-2012 OOC, then it's much lower.
 
22% is much lower than 33%. Also, taking out hot streaks does not make any more sense than taking out cold streaks.
 
Strickland33 said:
Travis's percentages get much worse historically in-conference. Check the splits if you don't believe me. I'm guessing he finishes out around 40% 2FG and 20% 3fG.

I can't blame him in that sense, either. Where I can blame him is for taking shots out of rhythm and away from better shooters. 22% on a decent sample size is a sign for sensible players to quit shooting so many threes. Chase, a guy who plenty of folks on here hate, is making 50% of his 7 attempts per 40 minutes.
Click to expand...

That logic doesn't necessarily make sense. It would hold true only if his career ACC shooting %'s are lower than his current shooting %. I doubt that this is the case but don't have time to do the math. I expect his %'s to increase as the season goes on as he's been shooting well below career averages.
Agree on the defense of Chase. However, he should be used when he's hot and in matchups (zones, preferred 3 guard lineup, etc.) It might make sense to give him 8-20 minutes per game depending on the matchup rather than a steady 15-17 mpg. I think his overall minutes should go down a bit from current level but he is our best 3 point shooter and his shot is a thing of beauty.
 
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