ArlingtonDeac
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Outlier
Outlier
Reagan was ahead in 1980 after Memorial Day. To use one poll to say otherwise is foolish
I just want to say that Chris Christie has my full and loyal support if he were to run for president. He has been a close friend of mine through the years and I have been with him every single step of the way. As you can see he has certainly supported me since a very young age and I just want to go on record by saying I will do the same for him...........until the day comes where I kill him.
Maybe, but the last three Wisconsin poll are
O +14
O +6
O +7
The Marquette poll last month was O +3, so there's a lot of movement toward Obama. Outlier or not, Romney's finished in Wisconsin.
The Iowa thing was a coordinated hack job, facilitated by the use of sophisticated electronic technology that could eliminate background noises to create its desired final effect to support a predetermined strategy.
How can he be your friend when he kills and cannibalizes you?
Maybe, but the last three Wisconsin poll are
O +14
O +6
O +7
The Marquette poll last month was O +3, so there's a lot of movement toward Obama. Outlier or not, Romney's finished in Wisconsin.
http://articles.cnn.com/2004-01-06/...ting-national-poll-new-poll?_s=PM:ALLPOLITICS
Less than two weeks before the Iowa caucuses, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean remains on top of the Democratic heap, with retired Gen. Wesley Clark picking up ground, according to a recent national poll.
http://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Dean-leads-Democrats-in-California-Field-Poll-2600801.php
Presidential candidate Howard Dean -- buoyed by Internet campaigning and strong word-of-mouth among grassroots voters -- has rocketed to the top of the Democratic pack in crucial California, a new Field Poll released Monday showed.
http://articles.orlandosentinel.com...7_1_new-hampshire-candidate-howard-dean-kerry
Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean has taken a lead over rival John Kerry in New Hampshire, the state holding the first presidential primary in 2004, a poll found. Dean, a former governor of Vermont, had 28 percent to 21 percent for Kerry, a senator from Massachusetts, according to the poll by the American Research Group of Manchester, N.H.
http://articles.baltimoresun.com/20...2_1_howard-dean-al-sharpton-gonzales-research
Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean continues to garner the most support among likely Maryland Democratic presidential primary voters, according to a Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies poll being released today.
http://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Liberal-Democrats-give-Dean-lead-in-Field-Poll-2588262.php
Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, buoyed by liberal, white and college- educated voters, has surged to the head of the pack in California's crowded Democratic presidential primary, according to a Field Poll released today.
"The wind is at (Dean's) back across the country and especially here in California," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field Poll. "Every time we've done a poll, his numbers have been up by a substantial margin."
A poll last April had Dean with only 7 percent support among California Democrats, compared with 22 percent for Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman and 16 percent for Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts. By July, the three candidates were in a virtual dead heat with about 15 percent each.
The new survey puts Dean on top in the March 2004 primary at 23 percent, with Lieberman at 15 percent, Kerry at 11 percent, Missouri Rep. Dick Gephardt at 8 percent and the rest of the Democratic field at 4 percent or less.
Why would you explore individual polls when you can let Nate Silver do all the work for you?
I say that in jest, but seriously, the 538 blog (and Silver himself) is the most comprehensive look at polling trends and actual predictions that exists.
I actually think Silver's analysis has fallen off quite a bit from where it was before he joined the NY Times. In 2008 he did an incredible amount of statistical analysis. This year that has been largely absent. These days, he just plugs the numbers into his model, writes about it, and does his "50 state" analysis thing, which is pretty much skin deep. Other than that, he just looks at the Rasmussen and Gallup tracking polls, says things like, "_______ had a (less/greater) than expected effect on polling numbers".
His model is that statistical analysis you think he should be doing. It isn't any less robust, he's just writing less about the model, and more about what he sees the model telling him. We'll see if he's fallen off by whether he's read this election correctly after it's over. Seems to me that he's been pretty spot on all along the way, as he was in the last two cycles.
Obama will win because he has the good fortune of an opponent who is a political knucklehead and a press that will do all in its power to re-elect him.
Obama will win because he has the good fortune of an opponent who is a political knucklehead and a press that will do all in its power to re-elect him.
Obama will win because he has the good fortune of an opponent who is a political knucklehead and a press that will do all in its power to re-elect him.