Spragoo
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This is the thread where we discuss scientific evidence about people not being able to properly assess their own decisions and abilities. I don't want this to turn into Wellman bashing, name calling, whining, or moaning about the WF Athletic Dept. I really just want to learn more about why people can't be objective about themselves and their decisions.
I have heard about this theory, most specifically when it comes to picking stocks. Usually a trader or investor picks a stock and because they picked that stock and "believe" in it, they hold onto it forever and don't sell because they think it will come back around. It is why, as mentioned in one of the Wellman articles, the drunk guy sits at the blackjack table and never knows when to get away. It is why when the market crashes, a la 2008, people pull their money out when the market is low instead of waiting for it to rebound. It is why everyone thinks their driving skills or kids are above average. Here's a little of what I found but would like to know more from the Macadamia Nut Gallery...
The Dunning-Kruger Effect:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect
The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes.
Shakespeare, in "As You Like It"
"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool."
I have heard about this theory, most specifically when it comes to picking stocks. Usually a trader or investor picks a stock and because they picked that stock and "believe" in it, they hold onto it forever and don't sell because they think it will come back around. It is why, as mentioned in one of the Wellman articles, the drunk guy sits at the blackjack table and never knows when to get away. It is why when the market crashes, a la 2008, people pull their money out when the market is low instead of waiting for it to rebound. It is why everyone thinks their driving skills or kids are above average. Here's a little of what I found but would like to know more from the Macadamia Nut Gallery...
The Dunning-Kruger Effect:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect
The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled individuals suffer from illusory superiority, mistakenly rating their ability much higher than average. This bias is attributed to a metacognitive inability of the unskilled to recognize their mistakes.
Shakespeare, in "As You Like It"
"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool."
