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The ACC 2012-13: Stoglin leaves early...

Exactly. Unfortunately, what we're going to hear is the same people who have been saying you can't expect a big man to contribute until their junior year in defense of Carson saying that Thomas is a beast who will contribute immediately. Even if we get freshman year Big E or Songaila is that going to be enough to push this team into the top half of the conference?

Carson and Thomas are different players. There's no excuse for Carson's lack of development, his complete ineptitude on the boards, or his softness in the paint. He's been a disappointment, and anybody who's trying to say that any of those problems are likely to change when he's a junior is either stupid or disingenuous. He is what he is at this point-- a good face-up shooter who can occasionally look competent defensively. Unless he suddenly puts on 30 pounds, none of that is going to change.

Thomas, on the other hand, is giving us a bunch of reasons to get excited about him that Carson never really gave to us. He's playing against better competition, showing a penchant for scoring in the paint at will, and rebounding everything in sight. He's an entirely different beast than DeRosiers, and I disagree that it's unreasonable to expect him to contribute on Day 1. Even if he can't shoot outside of 5 feet, we'll have something that only Nikita really gave us this season (and he didn't do it all that consistently): an inside threat. That's a huge, huge upgrade.

Think about how useless Carson and Ty were in the offensive post this season. It's going from a negative presence to a positive one... I do think that their ineptitude in the paint this season had a ripple effect, and it made it easier to cover guys like CJ, Travis, and Chase on the perimeter when there was no inside threat. Look at the improvement we saw vs Duke and BC. A lot of that had to do with Nikita asserting himself inside-- I don't think it was a coincidence that Carson and Travis broke out of their perimeter slumps just as Nikita was improving. Having somebody that can score inside is going to make life easier for the rest of the team.

The other thing is that CMM isn't really replacing anybody (outside of walk-ons, I guess), so he can only add to the team. He makes life easier on TC, who I suspect will be a lot better in small doses (the positives in his game, and there are some, should translate well in spurts), and makes sure Fields only sees PT if absolutely necessary. Plus, his court vision, shooting, and playmaking ability will make life easier on Chase and CJ by getting them better looks. I don't think that improvement can be overstated enough.

And that's without even mentioning Moto (who seems ACC-ready, can rebound, and will immediately be our most athletic player) or Rountree (who will probably only be needed in small doses, but could be our team's best defender on Day 1). I mean, I know I'm probably a little too optimistic, but Thomas and CMM won't have to do much to make us a lot better, and the strength in getting a 6-man class is just getting depth to keep our starters fresh.
 
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He is not NBA ready yet. Hell, he could not even dominate against BC today. And yes, we could be pretty damn good next year.

Dude, he's been averaging 20 and 10 the past 5-6 games against the best teams in the ACC and your quote to sum him up is "he couldn't even dominate BC". After a double double on 63% shooting. Smh. I agree though, come back next year and he could move from first round to lottery
 
Just for reference's sake, here are the numbers from some of our notable freshmen over the past five years:
Fischer- 26.5 mpg, 6.5 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.5 apg, 35% FG
McKie- 31.1 mpg, 13.0 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 1.0 apg, 50% FG
JTT- 24.0 mpg, 11.1 ppg, 2.1 rpg, 1.6 apg, 37% FG
Carson- 19.1 mpg, 4.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 0.7 apg, 39% FG
Harris- 27.9 mpg, 9.9 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 1.2 apg, 39% FG
Stewart- 17.1 mpg, 7.3 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 0.3 apg, 37% FG
AFA- 29.0 mpg, 12.9 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 1.5 apg, 52% FG
JJ- 29.2 mpg, 14.6 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 1.2 apg, 49% FG
Teague- 29.7 mpg, 13.9 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 2.5 apg, 43% FG


I think a few people are counting on CMM to put up Teague numbers and Devin to match AFA right out of the gate. Unfortunately, that's not likely to happen, and we're going to struggle unless it does.

I actually am expecting CMM to put up similar numbers to Teague, but it's not just what you bring, but who you replace. TC has got to be the worst 30+ mpg player we've ever had. I'm expecting the upgrade from TC to CMM to be about the same as going from Downey to CP in 03, even if CMM doesn't exceed expectations.
 
I appreciate it exposed himself as a Downey hater last night. Let the rep barrage begin.

Didn't we win the ACC regular season title the year before CP stepped on campus? Not sure that's the best analogy to use.
 
RedSox... you're missing the point.

We all agree that Thomas has a chance to be better than all our post guys from 2011-12. Even if he is and Cav is good enough to get into the rotation, we still won't have the talent or depth to compete regularly in the ACC. That is the best case scenario.
 
That being said, I could see us getting to 17-18 wins depending on our OCC schedule.
 
We also had a really easy ACC schedule.
Teams we played twice: BC (12), GT (11), Clemson (7), NCSU (5), Duke (2)
Teams we played once: UNC (1), FSU (3), UVA (4), Miami (6), MD (8), VT (10)

Still can't believe we got killed by Clemson and NCSU at home.
 
I appreciate it exposed himself as a Downey hater last night. Let the rep barrage begin.

Didn't we win the ACC regular season title the year before CP stepped on campus? Not sure that's the best analogy to use.

Well I'm a "hater" of the entire 04-05 squad save CP.

We won because of JoHo, but in this case I'm using Taron as an example of a solid PG. If CMM comes in as good as Taron was as a soph, that's the equivalent of going from that to CP, just because of how bad TC is. If CMM and Taron are 3s, CP is an 8 and TC is -2.
 
We also had a really easy ACC schedule.
Teams we played twice: BC (12), GT (11), Clemson (7), NCSU (5), Duke (2)
Teams we played once: UNC (1), FSU (3), UVA (4), Miami (6), MD (8), VT (10)

Still can't believe we got killed by Clemson and NCSU at home.

I can believe getting blown out by NCS (although the margin was ridiculous). Clemson?

Facepalm
 
RedSox... you're missing the point.

We all agree that Thomas has a chance to be better than all our post guys from 2011-12. Even if he is and Cav is good enough to get into the rotation, we still won't have the talent or depth to compete regularly in the ACC. That is the best case scenario.

Well, yeah. My point was just that merely having a guy like DT in the rotation will make a lot of our offensive issues this season go away.
 
Well I'm a "hater" of the entire 04-05 squad save CP.

We won because of JoHo, but in this case I'm using Taron as an example of a solid PG. If CMM comes in as good as Taron was as a soph, that's the equivalent of going from that to CP, just because of how bad TC is. If CMM and Taron are 3s, CP is an 8 and TC is -2.

I don't see how its possible to hate the best squad we've had in 15 years, perhaps longer unless you're a closet UNC fan.
 
I don't see how its possible to hate the best squad we've had in 15 years, perhaps longer unless you're a closet UNC fan.

I don't hate them, the players besides CP were just overrated -- that's what generally happens to CP's teammates, although in this case it's because none of them could guard anyone. Also Skip coaches those teams almost perfectly (except for the Levy FTs).
 
Olgold

Thanks for the breakdown. This is very helpful. I had. I idea Reggie Johnson was only a junior
 
I don't hate them, the players besides CP were just overrated -- that's what generally happens to CP's teammates, although in this case it's because none of them could guard anyone.

Every single one of those guys aside from perhaps Levy showed real promise prior to CP's arrival. Josh didn't win 13 games by himself. They weren't that overrated.
 
Yeah that 2004-05 Wake team was loaded with college stars (i.e. four year guys who could play at all-conference levels but missing nba upside)
 
Yeah that 2004-05 Wake team was loaded with college stars (i.e. four year guys who could play at all-conference levels but missing nba upside)

Fun fact I completely forgot, Chris Ellis was a career 45% 3PT shooter, shooting over 60% his last year with CP3.
 
They were good offensive players, but terrible defensive players up and down the roster except Levy who was an average, but versatile defensive player who was a solid rebounder.
 
Chris Ellis may have been the second best player on this year's Wake team...
 
They were good offensive players, but terrible defensive players up and down the roster except Levy who was an average, but versatile defensive player who was a solid rebounder.

I'm not entirely sure they were terrible defensive players in as much as much as they were undersized to guard who they were tasked to guard. Didn't we run alot of CP3/JGray/Downey/Levy/BigE?

2-3 inches short, if not more, at every position.
 
If Reggie doesn't return Miami will be in the Bottom 5 with VT, GT, BC and Clemson.

We should be in the next group with MD, F$U and UVA. If things break right, we could challenge MD for 4th, but that might take everything breaking our way. It's not realistic.
 
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