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The Bubble

deacvision7 said:
That Cincy team is trash. A depleted Kansas nearly came back on them.

The problem with metrics is that a computer doesn't understand when players are hurt and don't play.

Computer models should be a guide, not a decider.
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Didn’t they win by 20?


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Are all these “locks” because the computers say they are? Hopefully there’s an appeal for sanity with the committee taking the #eyetest into equation
 
thatguy2016 said:
I was allowing myself to be sucked in to believing a win over Pitt just might do it. Now I’m back to thinking we’ll need a win Friday.

Indiana State at 27 in the NET is pressure testing the historical precedent there. Also taking away our argument for our metrics being too good, especially since they have the same number of Q1 wins.
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The rest of their schedule is charmin soft
 
Is there's such an emphasis on challenging ooc games there should be some weight given to playing (or not playing) in a p5 conference for all the conference games
 
If the committee puts emphasis on Indiana St’s doofy white guy as a story hopefully they consider a resurrected WFU with Johnetta Forbes as a made for TV story
 
Serious question.

Got a rehersal dinner tomorrow, just the dinner not the wedding rehersal, that is going to be over the start of the Wake game post our dismantaling of Pitt.

I should just skip that and watch the game right? How much obligation does a groomsman have to eat at a rehersal dinner?

I am seeing this as a no biggie type situation. I fully plan to attend their little wedding rehersal thing. I'm bout to get married too and feel like if he missed the dinner to watch a game I would have his back on that.

(EDIT: We intentionally scheduled our wedding so it would conflict with no major sports dates or tournaments, because we are not selfish)
 
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I understand the Indiana State hate, their schedule certainly sucks, but they are #27 in the NET. In the past three years, all of the teams in the top 37 of NET have gotten bids, so it would be pretty historic and precedent-setting if Indiana State gets left home.

I think Indiana State's resume is exactly why Dayton exists. Let the mid-major teams with impressive metrics and limited resumes and the power conference teams with a bunch of losses go fight it out in Dayton.
 
If the NCAA's are so confident in the quality of the NET, that's what Dayton should be for. Put the lowest ranked 8 NET teams there. They will all be shitty auto-bid teams outside of the top 100. Cry me a river, let good teams have those 4 spots instead of eliminating 2 deserving teams that would have gotten at-large bids.
 
deacon14 said:
I understand the Indiana State hate, their schedule certainly sucks, but they are #27 in the NET. In the past three years, all of the teams in the top 37 of NET have gotten bids, so it would be pretty historic and precedent-setting if Indiana State gets left home.

I think Indiana State's resume is exactly why Dayton exists. Let the mid-major teams with impressive metrics and limited resumes and the power conference teams with a bunch of losses go fight it out in Dayton.
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But WHY is that their NET? What is feeding into the system that allows this result? What is it about beating the piss out of Southern Illinois makes you worthy of being in the tournament? I am fully aware this argument cuts against Wake's case, to an extent. I get how KenPom and Torvik metrics work, but those are predictive measurements based on per-possession efficiency. NET is attempting (I think?) to be results-based. So, where are the results that would justify Indiana State being a top 27 team compared to a team with, say, 12 wins against the Top 103 (picking an arbitrary end point :) ).
 
DeacInVermont said:
But WHY is that their NET? What is feeding into the system that allows this result? What is it about beating the piss out of Southern Illinois makes you worthy of being in the tournament? I am fully aware this argument cuts against Wake's case, to an extent. I get how KenPom and Torvik metrics work, but those are predictive measurements based on per-possession efficiency. NET is attempting (I think?) to be results-based. So, where are the results that would justify Indiana State being a top 27 team compared to a team with, say, 12 wins against the Top 103 (picking an arbitrary end point :) ).
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It's not like their conference is complete garbage. Of the 12 teams in the MVC, 3 of the them are top 60 NET and 11/12 are in the top 200. So that's basically as if the bulk of their conference were teams on the level of Notre Dame and Georgia Tech.

Against that conference, Indiana State beat the shit out of almost everyone on the way to a 27-6 record, and they are still only on the bubble as opposed to being firmly in the tournament.
 
DeacsATS said:
Yeah, that stretch put them in a great position and then the win at UNC made them a lock. Everything they've done since then has been very meh (at best).

Limping into the NCAAs.
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This makes my head explode. They lost 3 of their last four (a game against us in the three), including ND and BC. If that was Wake (see Wake 2022-23 that lost three of its last four) we were left out, despite finishing 5th in the ACC (13-7) with the ACC player of the year and coach of the year.

Getting blown out by BC is about the same as us losing to Tech by a point at home. We both lost to ND. We beat them head to head.
 
Atlanta Deacon said:
This makes my head explode. They lost 3 of their last four (a game against us in the three), including ND and BC. If that was Wake (see Wake 2022-23 that lost three of its last four) we were left out, despite finishing 5th in the ACC (13-7) with the ACC player of the year and coach of the year.

Getting blown out by BC is about the same as us losing to Tech by a point at home. We both lost to ND. We beat them head to head.
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Clemson has road wins at Alabama and at UNC. Both of those wins are WAY better than anything on Wake's resume right now or in 2022-23. In addition, Clemson has 3 other Q1 wins (TCU, at Pitt, Boise State). In a world in which what you do in February/March is more important than November/December, Clemson would be in trouble. But in this world where each game is weighted equally, Clemson's resume is just fine.

In an attempt to mitigate Wake's bad luck with opposing teams on the wrong side of the Q1/Q2 border, we can combine those categories and look. Clemson is 10-10 in Q1/Q2, Wake is 9-11 in Q1/Q2. So Wake trails slightly, and the gap becomes wider when you consider that Clemson has more of the top-end wins.
 
Atlanta Deacon said:
This makes my head explode. They lost 3 of their last four (a game against us in the three), including ND and BC. If that was Wake (see Wake 2022-23 that lost three of its last four) we were left out, despite finishing 5th in the ACC (13-7) with the ACC player of the year and coach of the year.

Getting blown out by BC is about the same as us losing to Tech by a point at home. We both lost to ND. We beat them head to head.
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Wake and Clemson are roughly equal on a neutral court against each other, Clemson just has the better wins overall. Wake is probably a slight favorite if they played today in DC
 
This is where the human committee has to do its job. Fair to say Clemson is in but dropping seed lines quickly based on finish. By same token, comparatively (to Clemson) we should be safe based on head to head, but we lack that non-con stretch and can only claim ‘no Efton’ as a defense. Win today and I personally think we establish ourselves as the true 3/4 from ACC, and demonstrate our close road losses and dominating home record trend toward Ws on a neutral court. Whether or not that’s enough to get us in???? That’s why they make bourbon.


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This is why all those road losses were so damaging. Absolutely zero margin for error and forces us to sit here and agonize over teams fluctuating between Q1 and Q2 and the performance of rival bubble teams.
 
KidA23 said:
This is why all those road losses were so damaging. Absolutely zero margin for error and forces us to sit here and agonize over teams fluctuating between Q1 and Q2 and the performance of rival bubble teams.
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Sounds like you need a refresher on The Path (tm) there buddy.
 
Guess this is the season-thread now?

Unless ACC is a three-bid league, if we win today, UVA loses, and we don't get blown out by UNC - I don't see how either UVA or Pitt could jump us for a bid. Not even sure UVA can if they win today, since they lost the Clemson Q1 opportunity and I don't see them beating Duke.

I don't buy the ACC being a three-bid league. One of us, Pitt, UVA is getting in based on today, IMO. At the minimum.

If the MWC gets five or six bids and pukes in the first-round, I may have to stop watching college basketball.
 
Clemson is in and no worse than a 9 seed.

We need to win today to stay on the bubble. Our metrics are solid, but a lot of inflation from blow outs against mediocre competition at home.
 
Clemson is in. The number of bids per conference is irrelevant to the committee and it should be. Each team makes the NCAAT or does not based on its resume.
 
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