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The Preakness is Saturday

RJKarl

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As usual the red-headed stepchild of the Triple Crown is being overlooked. It doesn't have the pomp and posh of the KY Derby nor the drama of a possible Triple Crown winning event of the Belmont.

The post positions will be drawn this afternoon. It looks like there will be a field of ten. Several of the horses are obviously hoping to cash a check for coming in 3rd, 4th or 5th.

The closest horses to giving California Chrome a challenge seem to be the enigmatic Bayern, the previous Derby favorite but very lightly raced Social Inclusion and Ride on Curlin. But I don't think any of them have a chance unless they freak.

Bayern can be scintillating or very ordinary.

Social Inclusion can be great but has little experience.

Ride on Curlin had a brutal trip in the KY Derby. Of course, I don't think he would have won anyway. A case could be made that he should have come in second. He was never a threat.

It's bizarre that the filly Ria Antonia is running Saturday. Her new owners saw how badly she ran in the KY Oaks. Why they would take on the boys so shortly afterwards seems a huge reach and ego driven.

California Chrome can leave and sit almost anywhere Espinoza wants to put hom. Then he'll pass the speed and dare anyone to catch him from behind. My guess is he goes off 3/5 or 1/2.

Like the Derby, I will be looking for a Pick 4. It's unlikely it will be as easy as the one that hit on Derby Day as I doubt there will be a second free spot like Wise Dan was. Hopefully there will be a 5x4x3 (or 4) that can pay something.

The might actually be some bridge jumpers on Saturday. A bridge jumper is someone who bets 50,000 or 100,000 or 500,000 on a lock to show. They do so to get 5% interest (the minimum a horse can pay to show is $2.10 for a $2 bet). They are called bridge jumpers because when a horse like this doesn't hit the board, they might jump off a bridge.
 
Here are some odds form Vegas:

Horse Odds
California Chrome -155
Social Inclusion +600
Ride On Curlin +800
Dynamic Impact +800
Bayern +1000
General A Rod +1200
Kid Cruz +2000
Pablo Del Monte +2000
Ring Weekend +3000
Ria Antonia +5000

-155 is about 3/5. If a horse opens that low, it could end up 2/5 or lower.
 
I mean there's little to no chance Chrome gets beat right?
 
RJ, I am going for the first time this year. Can you give me a tip on a Pick 4 you like? Seems like the only way to make any money is bet multiple horses. I am not bridge jumping.
 
I mean there's little to no chance Chrome gets beat right?

It would take something bad or a miracle race for him to lose. With this short a field and his speed, it will be tough for him to get a bad trip.
 
RJ, I am going for the first time this year. Can you give me a tip on a Pick 4 you like? Seems like the only way to make any money is bet multiple horses. I am not bridge jumping.

Check your PM.....but promise you won't drink so much that you enter the porta-potty races in the infield. That is one of the bizarre things that happen at any sports/entertainment event anywhere in the world.

Hopefully, I cam find a Pick 4 like I did on Derby day or on Oaks Day for another poster.
 
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Check your email.....but promise you won't drink so much that you enter the porta-potty races in the infield. That is one of the bizarre things that happen at any sports/entertainment event anywhere in the world.

They stopped a few years ago. Things are much tamer than the past. Whether that's good or bad is up for you to argue.
 
So my work has a contest, where you put a ticket into a horse's name. They pick a person from the horse who finished 1st, same for 2nd and 3rd. each wins a prize, but 1st is better than 2nd. Everyone is going for California Chrome. What is my best bet to win? Thinking about trying for 2nd place, but who do i pick?
 
California Chrome to win.

Ride on Curlin or Social Inclusion for second.
 
I'm liking Kid Cruz to hit the board, and if he does, it's just about the only way an exacta or trifecta make money, right?

Not sure what to do about Social Inclusion and Bayern.

RJ, would a tri/super key with Chrome over ROC/Cruz/Social Inclusion/Dynamic Impact even be worth the wager?
 
If ROC/Social Inclusion come in, you're looking at $20 or less. If it's Cruz and Dynamic impact, it could get to $150.

Bayern can be great or really suck. He could also set silly fractions.
 
Here's the draw and M/L odds:

139TH PREAKNESS STAKES DRAW
Post Horse ML Odds
1 Dynamic Impact 12-1
2 General a Rod 15-1
3 California Chrome 3-5
4 Ring Weekend 20-1
5 Bayern 10-1
6 Ria Antonia 30-1
7 Kid Cruz 20-1
8 Social Inclusion 5-1
9 Pablo Del Monte 20-1
10 Ride On Curlin 10-1
 
It's been so hot in SoCal that they have cancelled racing for the past days at Santa Anita. It's been over 100 in Arcadia. They did the right thing.
 
RJ: re: your comment of the Preakness being the "red-headed stepchild". Part of that to me is the venue itself. That one camera shot every year where all you see beyond the track is a row of warehouses and a bunch of school buses doesn't exactly scream "the sport of kings". The Preakness is the one race each year that going into it you're guranteed a single, identified horse who is in the running for the Triple Crown. It should be a bigger deal than it is, but clearly lacks the atmosphere of Churchill Downs or Belmont.
 
Thoughts on how a sloppy track and/or a really fast pace(45 sec 1/2) would affect Chrome's chances?
 
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