• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

Thoughts on the Kentucky Derby -California Chrome's future

RJKarl

RJKarl

Banhammer'd
Joined
Mar 17, 2011
Messages
78,116
Reaction score
3,112
Location
HB, CA
It's two months until the first Saturday in May and time to start looking at the horses who may make it there.

Right now here are my top contenders. This will change a lot, but it's good to start now. This is not necessarily in order.

Honor Code Shug Mcgughey's regally bred colt is following Shug's KY Derby winners' path. Street Sense and Supersaver each waited until late in the season to start their three year old campaigns. Few can do this, but Shug can.

Candy's Boy will probably be able to run all day. His dad, Candy Ride, was one of the best horses of the past twenty years. It would be nice for John Sadler to win the KY Derby.

Cairo Prince is the current favorite and is very fast. The biggest question is can he last the distance.

Bayern Baffert is giddy about this horse. The downside is he will enter the Derby after only three races lifetime. His maiden race was totally professional and freakish.

Intense Holiday - No question he can get 1 1/4 miles. He toyed with the field in AR. Should be Top 3 in the betting.

Top Billing is a closer which gave him no chance in the Fountain of Youth. He's another Shug trained monster. The trainer doesn't send horses to the KY Derby to run or just for ego.

Tapiture looked like a monster in his last race. Let's see if has another in him.

The last Future Book Pool opens this week. I might take a bet or two if the odds are right. With this group, it would be foolish to take less than 12-1 on anyone in the FB.
 
Last edited:
The Futures Pool 3 closed Saturday. My bad.

Seeing the odds below, I think I would have bet $50 - $20 Bayern, $20 Intense Holiday, $10 Samraat

# Wagering Interest Morning Line
Odds
Closing
Odds
$2 Will Pays
1 Albano* 30-1 53-1 $109.40
2 Bayern* 15-1 17-1 $36.40
3 Cairo Prince 8-1 9-1 $21.80
4 California Chrome 30-1 32-1 $67.60
5 Candy Boy 20-1 12-1 $27.80
6 Conquest Titan 30-1 26-1 $55.00
7 Constitution* 20-1 28-1 $58.80
8 General a Rod* 20-1 36-1 $74.20
9 Honor Code 10-1 11-1 $25.40
10 Indianapolis 20-1 41-1 $85.00
11 Intense Holiday 15-1 22-1 $47.40
12 Kobe’s Back* 20-1 32-1 $67.20
13 Kristo 30-1 67-1 $136.60
14 Noble Moon 30-1 46-1 $95.80
15 Samraat 30-1 30-1 $62.60
16 Shared Belief 12-1 15-1 $33.00
17 Strong Mandate 20-1 18-1 $38.00
18 Tamarando* 30-1 53-1 $108.60
19 Tapiture 15-1 17-1 $36.80
20 Top Billing 8-1 11-1 $24.40
21 Uncle Sigh 50-1 42-1 $86.80
22 Vicar’s in Trouble 30-1 52-1 $106.20
23 Wildcat Red* 20-1 28-1 $58.40
24 All Other 3 YOs 6-1 3-1 $8.20
 
Looks Ill be in vegas for this again. Mayweather-Maidana that day too although not set where its gonna be.
 
That sucks that Bayern was a scratch....the Rebel should be a good one though.
 
If it's just a small bruise, it won't make a lot of difference. If he's Ok Monday, he could still ship to Oaklawn.
 
RJKarl said:
If it's just a small bruise, it won't make a lot of difference. If he's Ok Monday, he could still ship to Oaklawn.
Click to expand...

Honor Code, Tapiture, Strong Mandate, and Bayern? Yes please.....that would be a loaded field.
 
California Chrome absolutely freaked in the San Felipe. He went 45 2/5; 1:09 1/5 being pressed every step the way then drew off to win by 7 1/2 lengths (it looked like much more) at a 1 1/16 miles in 1:40 1/5.

To give an idea how ridiculous that was. The Tampa Derby (also a 50 points KY Derby Prep) was won by 1:43 2/5 by a horse who won by 2-3 lengths.

A rule of thumb is 1/5 of second= 1 length. California Chrome's 1:40 1/5 was 17 lengths better than open length winner in Tampa.

There are two options here. The first is the horse freaked and will bounce badly to lose next couple of times out. The other Art Sherman has turned him into a monster.

Let's watch what he does in the Santa Anita Derby next month.
 
Watched the replay. California Chrome was pretty impressive, just running away at the end. I will say, almost as impressive was Midnight Hawk. I like this horse, he's super young, but he's got some fight in him....will be interesting to see how he develops.

Originally thought Honor Code would be running in the Rebel, but he's running in an allowance instead?? Why the hell are they going that route? He's one of my favorites, but this is a little odd...

Pretty bummed that Top Billing is out....I really like a good closer. Who are the closers to watch out for? Intense Holiday? Conquest Titan?
 
Last edited:
Intense Holiday won very easily last time out. Don't be fooled by the margin. Stevens measured the win.

California Chrome destroyed Midnight Hawk. MH wasn't at all competitive after 6F.
 
RJKarl said:
Intense Holiday won very easily last time out. Don't be fooled by the margin. Stevens measured the win.

California Chrome destroyed Midnight Hawk. MH wasn't at all competitive after 6F.
Click to expand...

You think that had anything to do with MH's age though? Another couple months might help...
 
Here we go....three really solid horses going today.

I like Hoppertunity and Cali Chrome.
 
Today is one of the biggest days of the year leading up to the KY Derby. In NY, the Wood Memorial will be run. In CA, it's the Santa Anita Derby. Each race can give a lot of insights into the Derby. Each has a horse that either freaked last time out or is a freak.

In the wood, we'll get to see if Social Inclusion is a total monster or just ran out of his mind in FL. His last race was insane. He ran 1.40 1/5 for 1 1/16. He destroyed former Derby favorite Honor Code by about ten lengths. The time was blistering and he did it easily. The downside is he's only had two races lifetime.

Uncle sigh has been running very well but isn't exciting. All Samraat does is win. He's undefeated. He's never been flashy and people continue to make excuses for the horses he beats. The reality is he beats them. Maybe people should start saying, "You've got to beat Samraat. He won't beat himself."

If no one hooks up with Social Inclusion, he could runaway and hide again.

At the Great Race Place, we get to see the next act for California Chrome. Like Social Inclusion, California Chrome ran away from a strong field to win easily at 1 1/16 in 1:40 1/5. What was even more impressive was that he was totally under wraps and drawing off easily. He could have run faster and farther.

He may have a tougher race today than Social Inclusion. Candy Boy (son of legendary Candy Ride) can run all day and has been tremendous. Hoppertunity burst onto scene in Arkansas beating previous Derby favorite Tapiture. Add Bob Baffert's six Santa Anita Derby wins and Triple Crown record and you have to include him.

The races are on NBC Sports Network just before the Final Four starts at 5:30 EDT.
 
RJ, does TVG offer futures bets? Like if you wanted to bet on the derby winner now with fixed odds?
 
TVG does not. Well, not any longer, you could have bet on the Churchill Future Pool, but that's over. Social Inclusion and CA Chrome were both part of The Field for the first one.

At Wynn's California Chrome has dropped from 200-1 to 7-1. Social Inclusion opened at 80-1 and is now 25-1. If I were in Vegas, I might take the 25-1 before the race today. If he wins, it will drop to 6-8 to 1 by dinner time.
 
Rj what are your thoughts on captain nemo in the third at Belmont ?
 
WTF Are you talking about? Belmont isn't open.

Get some better drugs.
 
Last edited:
Holy shit, California Chrome is a special horse...
 
The Wood was unimpressive. Social Inclusion will likely not make the Derby field.

On the other hand, California Chrome was sensational again. He got off to a bad start and was wide for the entire race. He took the lead about half a mile from home and drew off to win by 7-10 lengths in a very fast time. What's even scarier is that he was totally geared down for at least the last 1/8 of a mile. He could have won by more if the jockey had wanted to do it.

He should be the be a shorter price in the Derby than Fusiaichi Pegasus was at 9/5. Even a twenty horse field, CA Chrome could easily be under 3/2. even money would not shock me unless someone freaks in Arkansas next week.

This could make handicapping difficult. Trying to pick for the lesser slots when it's a walkover isn't as easy as it is in a close race.

The only chance I see for him to lose is if Espinosa allows him to get cooked on the front end. Today he rated a little. Hopefully, he'll do that in four weeks.

California Chrome may be a super-horse.
 
There's also a cool side story in this year's Derby. California Chrome's trainer is 77 year old Art Sherman. Art has had nice career over the past fifty years. He started out as an exercise rider. Then he became a jockey and finally a trainer. Much of his stable has been claimers.

This isn't his first Derby. That happened fifty-nine years ago as an eighteen year old exercise rider for the legendary horse Swaps. Back in the 50s. horses were sent by train for out of town races. Art accompanied his horse from CA to KY. He slept next in the hay next to him.

In nearly a quarter of a century as a jockey and longer as a trainer, Sherman hasn't had another horse in the Derby until California Chrome.

Art Sherman has been known as perpetually upbeat and the everyman of the races. He doesn't have sheiks or dotcom billionaires or old money families as clients. A lot of his horses are owned by groups of friends who put together $10-50,000 to live a dream.

California Chrome winning would be a great story.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top