In light of our miserable season and alleged shift in recruiting strategy I decided to dig into a number of areas to see what I could come up with as possible reasons for our recent failures (not just last year) and how those, if viewed by those in charge of our athletic department, could lead to tweaking our overall strategy.
Below, I've listed every top 100 RSCI ranking recruit landed by Wake since the 2003 class:
2003: Chris Paul (#7) Went to NBA after 2 years.
Jeremy Ingram (#67) Transferred to ECU.
2004: None.
2005: David Weaver (#73) Redshirted a year and played out his eligibility.
Kevin Swinton (#76) Transferred to NAIA school.
2006: Jamie Skeen (#50) Transferred to VCU
Anthony Gurley (#56) Transferred to UMass
2007: James Johnson (#43) NBA after two years.
Jeff Teague (#58) NBA after two years
2008: Al-farouq Aminu (#7) NBA after 2 years.
Ty Walker (#37) He's Ty Walker.
Tony Woods (#41) Transferred.
2009: Ari Stewart (#39) Transferred to USC
By my count, that's 12 players in the top 100 over those 7 years, whose classes have completed more than 1 year of college.
1 (David Weaver) has graduated.
1 more (Ty Walker) looks likely to play out his eligibility
4 left after their sophomore seasons for the pros.
6 left via transfer.
Even beyond those top 100 players, we had 4 other transfers during that same 7 year stretch.
I don't know if this is bad luck, a systemic issue, or more likely a combination. But it has left us without our most innately talented players in the years they are likely to help us the most. You have to consistently have talent to win consistently, and we've had some of it. It just hasn't stayed all that long, especially in comparison to those schools that are more successful in the postseason. We could handle the NBA defections if we didn't have the attition from the other guys who are supposed to be our best players simultaneously. Even beyond those playerIt's also something we likely have to change if we expect to ever win big.
I don't for a second believe that we will try to win with diamonds in the rough with 5-star hearts, essentially taking lesser talent than we could recruit. The background and work ethic of a player can be considerations of course, but if you expect to win there is no substitute for talent, and our coaching staff definitely knows this. Every coaching staff knows this. What can change, and possibly has changed, is the level of due diligence performed on the players we are going after.
From here on this post is all speculation and opinion, but my guess is the coaching staff is going after players of the same talent level or potential that we've seen, but with a better head on their shoulders and potentially more well rounded games coming in. That's outside the view that we're looking for players who are better able to handle the academic/social side of things, as 3 of the above transfers could be at least partially attributable to academic/character issues, and at least 1 more due to homesickness/culture shock, rather than purely for basketball reasons. I have no idea how much that impacts our decision making.
There are team fit considerations as well. How versatile are the players in their ability to play multiple positions, and how well do they fit together on the floor. I don't think the previous coach placed enough importance on that as opposed to just bringing in the best talent possible. Guys like Mckie, Rountree, and CMM seem to exemplify what the coaching staff look for from a character and talent perspective, and while I don't see our overall talent level falling off, I am finally seeing how the shift could potentially manifest itself in an improved product on the floor. I'm still skeptical of other areas, but far less so on the recruiting front than I had been about 6 months ago. Especially if we do land Katenda.
Below, I've listed every top 100 RSCI ranking recruit landed by Wake since the 2003 class:
2003: Chris Paul (#7) Went to NBA after 2 years.
Jeremy Ingram (#67) Transferred to ECU.
2004: None.
2005: David Weaver (#73) Redshirted a year and played out his eligibility.
Kevin Swinton (#76) Transferred to NAIA school.
2006: Jamie Skeen (#50) Transferred to VCU
Anthony Gurley (#56) Transferred to UMass
2007: James Johnson (#43) NBA after two years.
Jeff Teague (#58) NBA after two years
2008: Al-farouq Aminu (#7) NBA after 2 years.
Ty Walker (#37) He's Ty Walker.
Tony Woods (#41) Transferred.
2009: Ari Stewart (#39) Transferred to USC
By my count, that's 12 players in the top 100 over those 7 years, whose classes have completed more than 1 year of college.
1 (David Weaver) has graduated.
1 more (Ty Walker) looks likely to play out his eligibility
4 left after their sophomore seasons for the pros.
6 left via transfer.
Even beyond those top 100 players, we had 4 other transfers during that same 7 year stretch.
I don't know if this is bad luck, a systemic issue, or more likely a combination. But it has left us without our most innately talented players in the years they are likely to help us the most. You have to consistently have talent to win consistently, and we've had some of it. It just hasn't stayed all that long, especially in comparison to those schools that are more successful in the postseason. We could handle the NBA defections if we didn't have the attition from the other guys who are supposed to be our best players simultaneously. Even beyond those playerIt's also something we likely have to change if we expect to ever win big.
I don't for a second believe that we will try to win with diamonds in the rough with 5-star hearts, essentially taking lesser talent than we could recruit. The background and work ethic of a player can be considerations of course, but if you expect to win there is no substitute for talent, and our coaching staff definitely knows this. Every coaching staff knows this. What can change, and possibly has changed, is the level of due diligence performed on the players we are going after.
From here on this post is all speculation and opinion, but my guess is the coaching staff is going after players of the same talent level or potential that we've seen, but with a better head on their shoulders and potentially more well rounded games coming in. That's outside the view that we're looking for players who are better able to handle the academic/social side of things, as 3 of the above transfers could be at least partially attributable to academic/character issues, and at least 1 more due to homesickness/culture shock, rather than purely for basketball reasons. I have no idea how much that impacts our decision making.
There are team fit considerations as well. How versatile are the players in their ability to play multiple positions, and how well do they fit together on the floor. I don't think the previous coach placed enough importance on that as opposed to just bringing in the best talent possible. Guys like Mckie, Rountree, and CMM seem to exemplify what the coaching staff look for from a character and talent perspective, and while I don't see our overall talent level falling off, I am finally seeing how the shift could potentially manifest itself in an improved product on the floor. I'm still skeptical of other areas, but far less so on the recruiting front than I had been about 6 months ago. Especially if we do land Katenda.
