College basketball fans wait all year for March. Tourney time! Championship Week. Can you feel the excitement? Not so much for the Deacon faithful.
Recent WF ACC Tourney History
For WF fans, in recent years, March Madness starts (and always ends) with the ACC Tournament. Alas, for the Deacon faithful, since Skip Prosser's untimely passing in 2007, the ACC Tournament means an early play-in game and a quick exit. Yes, WF has had some terrible teams under Dino (not so much under Dino, but his 0-3 ACC tournament record as a favorite in each game was just foreshadowing of future Deacon misery), Buzz and DM; even so WF's
2-13 ACC Tournament record under those three coaches is particularly nauseating when considering that all of those 13 ACC Tourney losses have come in an opening round game against other teams who have similarly horrible (or even worse) seasons than our Deacs. It really is hard to be that bad, but WF has essentially gone 2-13 against the bottom of the conference barrel. Even after weak regular seasons, our Deacs find a way to play below expectation every year in the conference tourney. WF's pathetic March Tournament record has left no doubt that WF is truly the worst of the worst. So, we have that going for us....
Consider that from March 2007 to date (we have had 4 Presidents during this time; so, that's two new Presidents per every WF ACC tournament win), WF's
TWO (as in the number less than three) ACC tournament wins have come against a 15-17 (#96) Notre Dame team in 2014 (Buzz's last win as a WF coach), and a victory over a 9-23 (#173) BC (one of the worst teams in ACC history) in 2017. That's the list.
Think about it... over the last 14 seasons, the high point for WF's basketball in ACC Tournament action was the Deacs's March 12, 2014 win over 11th place Notre Dame on play-in Wednesday (the ACC Tournament started a day later that year). Wow, that was fun; do you remember the game? I don't, except being slightly annoyed that it extended the Buzz's run by a day. Just to ensure that WF fans faced an immediate buzz-kill (get it?), after the ND win, a mediocre Pitt team annihilated the Deacs 84-55 the next day. Woo hoo!
For those that have cleansed their memory of the DM era, last year, WF opened the abbreviated ACC Tournament (yes, COVID ended the tournament almost before it started, but WF still managed to promptly exit) by losing to a last place Pitt team that entered the ACC Tournament on a seven game losing streak. The best news that WF fans have had in March is that the ACC Tournament ended the tenure of some recent horrible coaching hires. With that stellar history behind us, here is a preview of ND.
A link to detailed of ND's season and personnel can be found here:
https://www.ogboards.com/forums/showthread.php/32835-WF-at-the-Irish-EARLY-START-Tuesday-5-pm-ACCN from WF's February 2nd game against ND.
Irish season update: After dominating WF on February 2, ND went on mini-run losing at the buzzer at GT, beating Duke on the road and Miami at home. At that point, ND had moved up to #57 on the KP ratings and some claimed that Irish was on the verge of the bubble. In the Irish's next game, they held a 20 point 2nd half lead at Cuse, but then, the collapse. Cuse went on 30-5 run, and the Irish season went into the tank. The low point, was a 94-90 loss to a bad BC team with 5 scholarship players; followed by, a no-show double digit home loss to NC State. ND wrapped up the regular season with an inexplicable 10 point win over FSU. in that game, ND only played 7 players, but 5 scored in double figures. PG Prentiss Hubb led the Irish with 22 points and 5 assists.
Analytics: Simply put: ND is a decent offensive team, and poor defensive team. Offensively, ND doesn't commit TOs (1st in the ACC in offensive TO%), and they can shoot (4th in the ACC in effective FG%, 5th in 3 PT%, 2nd in 2 PT%). That said, ND doesn't offensive rebound (last in the ACC), and they don't draw fouls (12th in the ACC in FTA per FGA). Defensively, ND is soft. They are last in the ACC in forcing TOs, last in steals and because their defense is passive, ND doesn't foul (1st in defensive FTA per FGA). ND has no bench (#336 nationally in bench minutes, but they are tall and experienced (#13th nationally in height and #45 in experience).
Bottom line: KP projects a 76-67 ND win in 67 possessions. Would like to build a case on how WF wins this game, but our Deacs are in free fall, and we haven't hit bottom. WF's current run: losses by 24, 18, 21, 38, 13 and 12. Not one of those double digit losses came against a dominating opponent (no WF opponent rated higher than #31 during that stretch). So, WF has been non-competitive six times in a row against middling teams. Putrid. WF plays another middling team in #68 ND tomorrow. While ND is fully capable of losing to a crappy team (see the recent loss to BC), our Deacs have been unable to hang against any team in any situation. Looking like another WF season ends with a Tuesday whimper... At least, we are used to it.
