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Trump's Bullshit Trade Tantrums

Ag secretary: No guarantee small dairy farms will survive

President Donald Trump’s agriculture secretary said Tuesday during a stop in Wisconsin that he doesn’t know if the family dairy farm can survive as the industry moves toward a factory farm model.

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue told reporters following an appearance at the World Dairy Expo in Madison that it’s getting harder for farmers to get by on milking smaller herds.

“In America, the big get bigger and the small go out,” Perdue said. “I don’t think in America we, for any small business, we have a guaranteed income or guaranteed profitability.”
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The whole Republican plan is to make it harder for small business to compete with the wealthy.
 
avalon said:
Ag secretary: No guarantee small dairy farms will survive
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Social Darwinism and Survival of the Fittest mentality at its finest. And yet most of those farmers no doubt voted for Trump as their last, best hope to keep their farms and way of life. One wonders when these folks will finally wake up and realize that the GOP has nothing to offer them but empty rhetoric, worthless promises, and a culture war that is doing nothing to help them economically. Probably never.
 
Highland Deac said:
Social Darwinism and Survival of the Fittest mentality at its finest. And yet most of those farmers no doubt voted for Trump as their last, best hope to keep their farms and way of life. One wonders when these folks will finally wake up and realize that the GOP has nothing to offer them but empty rhetoric, worthless promises, and a culture war that is doing nothing to help them economically. Probably never.
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Those IA and WI farmers were just doing the white thing.
 
The concept of the US having balanced trade or surpluses in trade with nations is basically absurd. There's no nation on Earth with as large a population AND income levels equal to the US.

A perfect example is Germany. We have a deficit with them. The reality is we have 400% of their population. Even if Germans bought twice as much per capita from the US as we do from them, we'd have a sizable trade deficit.

We should watch about dumping, price fixing, climate, working conditions and negotiate those. Trying to get balanced trade is for simplistic morons.
 
Here Comes the Trump Slump: And he has only himself to blame.

Best read onsite for embedded links, but I’ll quote below. Krugman piece trigger warning for the irrational.

When he isn’t raving about how the deep state is conspiring against him, Donald Trump loves to boast about the economy, claiming to have achieved unprecedented things. As it happens, none of his claims are true. While both G.D.P. and employment have registered solid growth, the Trump economy simply seems to have continued a long expansion that began under Barack Obama. In fact, someone who looked only at the past 10 years of data would never guess that an election had taken place.

But now it’s starting to look as if Trump really will achieve something unique: He may well be the first president of modern times to preside over a slump that can be directly attributed to his own policies, rather than bad luck.

There has always been a deep unfairness about the relationship between economics and politics: Presidents get both credit and blame for events that usually have little to do with their actions. Jimmy Carter didn’t cause the stagflation that put Ronald Reagan in the White House; George H.W. Bush didn’t cause the economic weakness that elected Bill Clinton; even George W. Bush bears at most tangential responsibility for the 2008 financial crisis.

More recently, the “mini-recession” of 2015-16, a slump in manufacturing that may have tipped the scale to Trump, was caused mainly by a plunge in energy prices rather than any of Barack Obama’s policies.

Now the U.S. economy is going through another partial slump. Once again, manufacturing is contracting. Agriculture is also taking a severe hit, as is shipping. Overall output and employment are still growing, but around a fifth of the economy is effectively in recession.

But unlike previous presidents, who were just unlucky to preside over slumps, Trump has done this to himself, largely by choosing to wage a trade war he insisted would be “good, and easy to win.”

The link between the trade war and agriculture’s woes is obvious: America’s farmers are deeply dependent on export markets, China in particular. So they’re hurting badly, despite a huge financial bailout that is already more than twice as big as the Obama administration’s auto bailout. (Part of the problem may be that the bailout money is flowing disproportionately to the biggest, richest farms.)

Shipping may also seem an obvious victim when tariffs reduce international trade, although it’s not just an international issue; domestic trucking is also in recession.

The manufacturing slump is more surprising. After all, America runs a large trade deficit in manufactured goods, so you might expect that tariffs, by forcing buyers to turn to domestic suppliers, would be good for the sector. That’s surely what Trump and his advisers thought would happen.

But that’s not how it has worked out. Instead, the trade war has clearly hurt U.S. manufacturing. Indeed, it has done considerably more damage than even Trump critics like yours truly expected.

[For an even deeper look at what’s on Paul Krugman’s mind, sign up for his weekly newsletter.]

The Trumpist trade warriors, it turns out, missed two key points. First, many U.S. manufacturers depend heavily on imported parts and other inputs; the trade war is disrupting their supply chains. Second, Trump’s trade policy isn’t just protectionist, it’s erratic, creating vast uncertainty for businesses both here and abroad. And businesses are responding to that uncertainty by putting plans for investment and job creation on hold.

So the tweeter in chief has bungled his way into a Trump slump, even if it isn’t a full-blown recession, at least so far. It’s clearly going to hurt him politically, notably because of the contrast between his big talk and not-so-great reality. Also, the pain in manufacturing seems to be falling especially hard on those swing states Trump took by tiny margins in 2016, giving him the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote.

And while many presidents have found themselves confronting politically damaging economic adversity, Trump is, as I said, unique in that he really did this to himself.

Of course, that doesn’t mean that he will accept responsibility for his mistakes. For the past few months he has been trying to portray the Federal Reserve as the root of all economic evil, even though current interest rates are well below those his own officials predicted in their triumphalist economic projections.

My guess, however, is that Fed-bashing will prove ineffective as a political strategy, not least because most Americans probably have at best a vague idea of what the Fed is and what it does.

So what will come next? Trump being Trump, it’s a good bet that he’ll soon be denouncing troubling economic data as fake news; I wouldn’t be surprised to see political pressure on the statistical agencies to report better numbers. Hey, if it can happen to the National Weather Service, why not the Bureau of Economic Analysis (which reports, by the way, to Wilbur Ross)?

And somehow or other this will turn out to be another deep-state conspiracy, probably orchestrated by George Soros.

The scary thing is that around 35 percent of Americans will probably believe whatever excuses Trump comes up with. But that won’t be enough to save him.
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Democratic House, specifically the brown women, will he the root cause. Expect the Green New Deal to take the heat.
 
Deacfreak07 said:
Democratic House, specifically the brown women, will he the root cause. Expect the Green New Deal to take the heat.
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No doubt. I'm sure if the recession comes Trump & the GOP will be blaming it all on the "ridiculous and UNFAIR impeachment hearings" and Socialist Democrats for pushing expensive socialist programs and driving up the price of everything, even though of course Congressional Democrats would bear no blame at all for causing a recession or much of anything else economically. And their base will eat it up - one can almost see the facebook and twitter posts from Trumpites if a recession happens. What a time we're living in.
 
You are right unless the recession starts in the Spring.
 
It could be rightly painted as being caused by Trump's trade war and it happened while he's in charge. The problem is Dems don't stand up for themselves.
 
RJKarl said:
It could be rightly painted as being caused by Trump's trade war and it happened while he's in charge. The problem is Dems don't stand up for themselves.
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The same way Obama gets credit for the recovery and Bush gets blamed for the recession? Causality doesn’t matter.
 
Some people need an excuse to get off the Trump train. A recession could be that impetus.
 
Seriously. The economy gives them cover. They’ll find a different cover in a recession.
 
He’d lose some support if the economy tanks.


Problem could be for any Dem that might win in 2020. Far better for us all, probably, if recession occurs before the election.
 
ConnorEl said:
He’d lose some support if the economy tanks.


Problem could be for any Dem that might win in 2020. Far better for us all, probably, if recession occurs before the election.
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I'll admit that one worry about next year's election is that a Democrat will win in 2020, only to have the long-awaited recession hit and the Democrats get all the blame. That would be politically devastating in 2022 and 2024 for Democrats. OTOH, if Trump gets reelected we're all screwed anyway, so in the end it's better for the Democrats to win next year, and take our chances on a recession happening. It would definitely be preferable for any recession to hit before the election, though.
 
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