UK Election

[cville deac]

They said whatever they needed to say to maintain power. All of the above are about keeping the rich richer and keeping the poor poorer.

I understand your argument about the maintenance of power. What I was saying is Trump is not a traditional American conservative, hence all the hate from the Bushes, Wills and Frums of the world. Trump and Boris are a new breed, and I would argue much more odious.

Shorty, wouldn't Northern Ireland have the same right as Scotland did a few years ago and have a vote as to whether to remain or leave? I would think that both Scotland and Northern Ireland would have new votes to leave if a hard Brexit produces harsh economic results.

923, I think that would be the eventual result. But I was talking about this with some friends whose parents were from the Republic of Ireland, and they go over occasionally for visits. They believe there would be some initial skiddishness from both sides and think it more likely that Northern Ireland would most likely start off as an independent nation and part of the EU and then start talks after a while on merging the 2 countries.

 

[vadimivich]

Reagan and Thatcher to Trump and Boris. The complete collapse of conservatism in both the USA and UK over the last 30 years has been astonishing to watch.

 

[BillBrasky]

I don't really know how shorting stocks works, but I think I should learn before Brexit happens this fall.

 

[Wakeforest22890]

Hopefully the EU follows through and makes them renegotiate everything from scratch. The right deserves all negative ramifications possible from the last few years.

 

[Shorty]

I understand your argument about the maintenance of power. What I was saying is Trump is not a traditional American conservative, hence all the hate from the Bushes, Wills and Frums of the world. Trump and Boris are a new breed, and I would argue much more odious.

Shorty, wouldn't Northern Ireland have the same right as Scotland did a few years ago and have a vote as to whether to remain or leave? I would think that both Scotland and Northern Ireland would have new votes to leave if a hard Brexit produces harsh economic results.

So it sounds like your answer to my question is yes, the UK would be willing to let Northern Ireland go.

 

[RJKarl]

I think Sasha Baron Cohen should take Boris' place. Hell, he even has Baron in his name.

 

[cville deac]

So it sounds like your answer to my question is yes, the UK would be willing to let Northern Ireland go.

I'm no expert on UK politics, but Scotland had a vote on whether to remain and narrowly voted to remain. So if they had the legal right to stage such a vote, I'd assume Northern Ireland has that right as well. US states don't have the right to secede, as we once observed, but apparently the 4 constituent countries of the UK have that right.

Numbers, I don't see the EU renegotiating anything. They have no love for Boris. They're going to dig in their heels and tell Boris to take the deal they offered May or have a hard Brexit. Aside from Brexit likely having unsavory economic repercussions, it could also end up destroying what is 1 of the coolest country flags in the world. Goodbye diagonal crosses and blue background, hello dragon on a red cross.

 

[vadimivich]

I cannot imagine Ireland unifying without violence, which all sides seem to want to avoid. The status quo isn't great, but it's better than the alternatives for the time being.

 

[cville deac]

I cannot imagine Ireland unifying without violence, which all sides seem to want to avoid. The status quo isn't great, but it's better than the alternatives for the time being.

That's why I suspect that if NI withdraws from the UK, it'll be an independent country under the EU for a while as NI and the republic feel themselves out.

 

[RJKarl]

Something we haven't talked about is that Wales and Scotland oppose leaving the EU. Scotland barely stayed a part of the UK in a vote a few ago. England demanding they leave the EU could be the last straw that creates Scottish independence. Wales may not be too far behind.

If Johnson and England leave the EU, it could easily be the end of the UK as it has been constituted for over 400 years.

 

[DeaconCav06]

I cannot imagine Ireland unifying without violence, which all sides seem to want to avoid. The status quo isn't great, but it's better than the alternatives for the time being.

Why do you think there would be violence? I think it’s more likely there is violence with a hard Brexit and a hard border.

 

[Wakeforest22890]

Because the religious division still very much exists?

 

[Deacon923]

The UK parliament granted the Scots the right to hold the referendum in 2014. So I don't think it's a "right", but the precedent has been set so they'd have a hard time telling the Northern Irish no if there was big demand for a referendum.

As for unification; I don't have firsthand knowledge, but my sense is the status quo is considered pretty good - political separation, but essentially economic and growing cultural consolidation thanks to the EU. If Brexit threatens economic consolidation through a hard border, that could give rise to an appetite for some form of political union pretty quickly. Obviously speculative at this point but things are changing so quickly these days I think it could happen more quickly than expected. I agree that the most likely mechanism would be Northern Irish independence and EU membership, possibly followed one day by unification (possibly with features of devolved government).

 

[ConnorEl]

Winston Churchill Would Despise Boris Johnson: Britain’s new leader has a sadly exaggerated sense of the importance his country will have after Brexit.

Whole piece is worth a read, IMO. Here's the conclusion:

...The United States can afford to indulge in bashing international norms, at least for a while, because it is a huge country, with a powerful domestic economy, unparalleled military strength and great natural resources. Britain has none of these things. The idea that Britain, acting alone, can exact favorable terms from much larger powers such as China, Europe or, indeed, the United States, is a delusion. If it leaves the European Union, Britain will become a middling provincial country, whose fortunes will be subject to the whims of others. Trump probably won’t care. Churchill would have been horrified.

 

[birdman]

I've been in Scotland for the last two weeks and there is definitely talk among the locals of a new referendum for leaving the UK and rejoining the EU. It's also possible that Scotland and NI would join together politically as a member of the EU. Hard Brexit would cause significant political turmoil in the British Isles.

 

[WakeForestRanger]