Bubble Boy
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It seems a common refrain is “Wake can’t afford to pay Manning’s buyout” or “Wake won’t fire Manning because his buyout is too much.” It seems this misses one key point: Wake loses money by keeping him. Per Connor’s recent article, average attendance this season was going to finish around 6,750, the lowest ever in the Joel, and it has decreased every season of Manning’s tenure. Also, If my math is correct, he says Wake averaged just shy of 12K in Dino’s last year. So I think it’s safe to say that Wake could average around 6k per game next season, if Manning comes back. So to me that is the baseline – you pay Manning whatever his salary is next season and then you bring in whatever game revenue 6k fans gets you.
So now lets say Wake has 15 home games. And each person in attendance brings in $30 (ticket, parking, etc). I have no idea how accurate a number that is – just a totally guess/estimate. I figure that number is much higher for a few games and much lower for some others. Again, just a guess for the average over the season. If you can bring in another 2k per game to average 8K a game, you are looking at an extra $900k for the season. Increase attendance by 4K (up to 10K/game), and you get an extra $1.8M for the season. I dare say that is enough to pay a Forbes, Kelsey, Miller, etc. If you can get attendance back up to the 12K range, you are looking at $2.7M more per season.
Like I said, this is a total swag, and here are a few things I am not really taking into consideration, all of which probably understate my calcs. As fan enthusiasm increases and average attendance increases, the average price per fan likely increases. You can charge more for the better games that start selling out and you don’t have to sell $1 tickets for the worst games. Plus you can schedule better non-conference games that bring in better attendance. Think Kansas instead of Houston Baptist. For my math, I just used the same $30/game for Manning’s baseline amount as I did for the increased attendance amount. I’m also sure increased Deacon Club donations will follow better b-ball success, and I would think that the same goes for ad revenue, sponsorships, etc. So if you start getting the results/enthusiasm that bring in 12K per game, you’re probably really looking at something like an extra $4-5M a season. Just as a comparison, it looks like Beilein was making $3.8M in his last season at Mich. And it looks like Chris Mack and Jay Wright make around $4M. I’m not saying we should/can hire them - just showing that a coach like that probably pays for himself by winning. Even on top of what is already being paid to Manning.
Anybody want to take a stab at some more accurate numbers? Am I too high or too low? Missing anything else?
So now lets say Wake has 15 home games. And each person in attendance brings in $30 (ticket, parking, etc). I have no idea how accurate a number that is – just a totally guess/estimate. I figure that number is much higher for a few games and much lower for some others. Again, just a guess for the average over the season. If you can bring in another 2k per game to average 8K a game, you are looking at an extra $900k for the season. Increase attendance by 4K (up to 10K/game), and you get an extra $1.8M for the season. I dare say that is enough to pay a Forbes, Kelsey, Miller, etc. If you can get attendance back up to the 12K range, you are looking at $2.7M more per season.
Like I said, this is a total swag, and here are a few things I am not really taking into consideration, all of which probably understate my calcs. As fan enthusiasm increases and average attendance increases, the average price per fan likely increases. You can charge more for the better games that start selling out and you don’t have to sell $1 tickets for the worst games. Plus you can schedule better non-conference games that bring in better attendance. Think Kansas instead of Houston Baptist. For my math, I just used the same $30/game for Manning’s baseline amount as I did for the increased attendance amount. I’m also sure increased Deacon Club donations will follow better b-ball success, and I would think that the same goes for ad revenue, sponsorships, etc. So if you start getting the results/enthusiasm that bring in 12K per game, you’re probably really looking at something like an extra $4-5M a season. Just as a comparison, it looks like Beilein was making $3.8M in his last season at Mich. And it looks like Chris Mack and Jay Wright make around $4M. I’m not saying we should/can hire them - just showing that a coach like that probably pays for himself by winning. Even on top of what is already being paid to Manning.
Anybody want to take a stab at some more accurate numbers? Am I too high or too low? Missing anything else?
