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Wake Season Predictions - Kenpom Style

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Haros

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After finishing #251 in last year's final Kenpom rankings, by far the worst in the recorded history of a major conference team (spanning the last 9 years), Wake is slated to finish #156 in the upcoming season based on last year's performance, who left, who is coming back, and the recruiting rankings of those coming in.

We ware projected to finish 12-18 prior to the ACC tournament (I'm extrpolating 2 additional losses in our Thanksgiving tournament) and 4-12 in the ACC. However, those totals are based off expected winning percentages, and account for pulling a few upsets.

We'll be favored just 9 times, including just once in the ACC (home vs BC), and are projected to finish better than just 8 of our opponents in his final rankings (behind Loyola, our first opponent, although we may be favored since it's at home).

We also are projected to finish 11th in the ACC, ahead of only BC, and well behind everyone else, with UVA and GT at #88 and #85 respectively the closest ahead of us. The ACC should be the #4 conference, behind the Big Ten, Big East, and Big 12.

None of this is likely news to anyone here, but it's going to be a struggle, even in the non-conference. Somewhere in the range of 11-12 wins seems right to me. Hopefully I'll have time to expand on why we'll win a few more this year than last before game #1, but feel free to post your own thoughts and predictions on this.
 
What did Kenpom predict prior to last year?
 
A lot of pain, but not nearly as much as our team suffered. I want to say last in the conference, but with 14 or so wins, including 3 in the conference, and a ranking just outside the top 100. That was also before the injuries to TC and Tabb's suspension, but how much impact those would have had in his computer rankings I have no idea. We fell far short of low expectations last year regardless.
 
Haros said:
A lot of pain, but not nearly as much as our team suffered. I want to say last in the conference, but with 14 or so wins, including 3 in the conference, and a ranking just outside the top 100. That was also before the injuries to TC and Tabb's suspension, but how much impact those would have had in his computer rankings I have no idea. We fell far short of low expectations last year regardless.
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Yup...nobody expected what went on last year. Tabb and TC hurt us a lot, but that probably would have bumped us down to around 160-170 (or where we are right now).

Honestly, I don't see us finishing that high, I just hope to see us improve as the year goes along.
 
Haros said:
A lot of pain, but not nearly as much as our team suffered. I want to say last in the conference, but with 14 or so wins, including 3 in the conference, and a ranking just outside the top 100. That was also before the injuries to TC and Tabb's suspension, but how much impact those would have had in his computer rankings I have no idea. We fell far short of low expectations last year regardless.
Click to expand...

We should not finish last in the conference. BC should be really bad. As bad as we were last year or worse. Even the ACC media recognizes this, and I assure you they are going to give Steve Donahue much more benefit of the doubt than they would give Jeff [Redacted]. From a quick overview, it looks like BC's schedules are more difficult than us, both out of conference and in the ACC.

I'm predicting 11-19 & 4-12.
 
Yeah, I was referring to last year's Kenpom prediction as Neuro asked what last year's model had predicted.

My guess for this year as of today is 12-19 (3-13) and 11th in the ACC with a first round ACC loss.
 
Sweet! We've moved up 100 positions... oh wait
 
jaybone said:
16-17 (4-12) with a first round ACC tourney win
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Uh, pretty sure we play 30 games in the regular season.

Even if you're counting two ACCT games in that you still have an extra game.

ETA: The Old Spice only has 3 games, not 4 like many preseason tournaments, that's probably the confusion.
 
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I'm just hoping to not suffer an aneurism from watching our inability to protect the rim.

Layup drills are just so tough to take.
 
If we go 9-4 out of conference, then we should be good enough to go 5-11 in a very weak ACC.
 
Our coaching factor should mean about minus 50-75 kenpom spots.
 
From the other thread.

Quote:
Originally Posted by deacvision7
Better than being a defeatist and only needing 12 wins out of 31 games (including first round of ACC tourney) to become "content" with the season, I suppose.

Remember the schedule includes these 10 teams:
Loyola 148, 63%
Georgia Southern 287, 86%
North Carolina Central 320, 90%
Nebraska 53, 16%
Richmond 90, 50%
High Point 283, 65%
Seton Hall 75, 21%
G-W 310, 89%
UNC-W 234, 78%
Yale 165, 66%
Wofford 202, 73%

Sorry, but 12 wins wouldn't make me at all hopeful for the future when 10 of the 31 games are against such utter dross.
KenPom's numbers to start the year:
Click to expand...

7.47 wins, or 7/8 wins...almost exactly what I predicted yesterday.

The average of the teams=197 in non-conference.

Last year final numbers=189 in non-conference.

So this years schedule is slightly worse if you want to take KenPom's predictions as legitimate at this point. That would probably equate to 1-1.5 wins (stab in the dark here). This is also before adding in the 2nd and 3rd games of the Old Spice Classic, which will likely bring it down towards the 189 number as well, so keep that in mind.

This is a good post to look at in the future when we are looking at the baseline that we were starting at, particularly because KenPom's numbers are widely accepted as the best statistically for college basketball.
 
Why would anybody be so negative about our preseason chances. You are like the guys who try to pick up the ugliest, fattest girls in the bar so that your odds of being successful are greater. At least go for the hot chick's almost hot best friend so that you won't hate yourself when you wake up next to her. You have driven me to an 18 and 12 prediction.
 
Winkathomelygirl said:
Why would anybody be so negative about our preseason chances. You are like the guys who try to pick up the ugliest, fattest girls in the bar so that your odds of being successful are greater. At least go for the hot chick's almost hot best friend so that you won't hate yourself when you wake up next to her. You have driven me to an 18 and 12 prediction.
Click to expand...

Or you could be realistic and say around 12 wins...kinda like going for the moderately ok looking girl and taking her home.
 
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