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WFU Hoops: '21-'22 Roster Construction Thread: +LaRavia/Taylor/Walton/Monsanto/Williams/Sy/Marsh

 
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It’s nice to have a ton of talent on the wing with flexibility to throw out a bunch of different lineups backstopped by legit depth. We’ll definitely see more of Forbes’s coaching ability and system on display this year.
 
I think people are sliding Sy to PF to avoid giving Mucius a bunch of minutes at PF.

That's good info, OldGold. Thanks.

I don't think Sy changes projections that much because Ody was going to take those minutes anyway.

The KenPom breakdown shows we have plenty of minutes left at SG and SF and Forbes did a great job recruiting players who can fill those minutes.

I feel pretty confident we'll never see Walton/Sy/Tariq on the court together. I also think we'll see LaRavia as a small ball 5 on occasion depending on the matchups. Walton's ability to hit the 3 suggests gives us lineups with 5 shooters so we won't need a small ball 5 that much.

LaRavia will play about 28 minutes at PF. Mucius and Monsanto will play 48 minutes at SF and PF minutes. The rest will be 3 guard lineups

Whitt and Williamson should play the PG minutes. Maybe McCray gets some minutes there as well.

The rest is Williams and the true frosh. We'll see what they have to offer. Obviously someone isn't going to play much this year, but Forbes will have to convince them to stick around to take over the minutes Williams and Mucius leave behind. I doubt Mucius stays for a 4th year. He either goes pro or grad transfers.
 
OldGoldBeard said:
For what little it may be worth, KenPom provides line-up and positional data for the last 5 games of each team's season. While it's admittedly imperfect, here are the numbers on our transfers:

In '21, Dallas Walton played 29% of CU's minutes at center, and never lined up anywhere else, understandable for a 7-footer. (I believe the positional data is based, at least in part, on height, so you aren't going to see many folks able to bump him). In '20, he played 7% of their minutes at center and in '18, he was at 51%. He is never recorded at any other position.

Sy doesn't chart in the last 5 games for Ole Miss. In '20, he played 56% of their minutes at center, and was exclusive at that position. In '17, he was 20% of VT's minutes at center, and again didn't chart anywhere else. I'm not sure where the idea of him getting minutes at the 4 comes from, as he appears to have played C exclusively, and I don't see the triumvirate of him, Walton, and Tariq being so dominant that 40 minutes simply isn't enough to go around.

LaRavia played 82% of ISU's minutes at center, and nowhere else in '21. As a freshman in '20, he played 36% of their minutes at PF and 25% at C. I think it's more reasonable we see a few minutes of him at center than that we see Sy or Walton at PF.
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think KP is basing this 100% on height - Tre Williams (6'7", 250) definitely played center for ISU last year, and he played more minutes on the season than Jake

those two both played 29+ minutes per game, meaning they were on together for at least 20 mpg, during which time Williams was the nominal center
 
thatguy2016 said:
think KP is basing this 100% on height - Tre Williams (6'7", 250) definitely played center for ISU last year, and he played more minutes on the season than Jake

those two both played 29+ minutes per game, meaning they were on together for at least 20 mpg, during which time Williams was the nominal center
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It can't entirely be height, since Whitt (listed at 6'4") is getting PG minutes Williamson (6'2"), but I can't find an explanation anywhere. Regardless, I certainly don't take it as gospel.

DeacsATS said:
I think Sy can play the 4 alongside Walton or Ingraham at the 5... Especially if we need to go big due to matchups. But I tend to agree that 40 minutes will be enough for Walton, Sy, & Ingraham (most nights). I think Sy played C exclusively because he was the biggest guy on the team both years at Ole Miss.

LaRavia, I think, is more of a 3/4 in the ACC. Honestly, I think he'll get all he can handle at the 4... Unless we go "small" and put Mucius there with Monsanto at the 3. There are a ton of potential combinations at 2-4. As you state, PG is pretty much Whitt/Williamson and C is pretty much Walton/Sy/Ingraham.
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Definitely lots of uncertainty and combinations with all the turnover. It's nice to care enough again to want to have these discussions
 
This was the second link when I googled kenpom positions.

https://kenpom.com/blog/most-frequent-lineup-data/

In order to create the algorithm, I watched a bunch of teams (roughly 100) and assigned a position, one through five, to each player that got decent enough minutes. Then I ran a regression on various stats to best predict the position assignments. I’m using an initial model to identify the player on the floor most likely playing point guard, and then a second model to identify the remaining four spots on the floor.

To identify the point guard, height and assist rate are useful predictors of course. But the system I’m using tends to not like guys who take a lot of threes and have a low turnover percentage because those players are normally playing shooting guard or (“shooting wing”), regardless of their size. Not surprisingly, a low offensive rebound percentage is normally a giveaway for a point guard, but the system relaxes this requirement for taller players.
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What's funny to me is that KenPom is popular enough that he could probably just crowdsource the information from fans as another data point. Create a survey and fans could select their team. KenPom could generate some of the problematic lineups for each team. Fans could slot the players in those lineups into positions. KenPom could put the data back into his model.
 
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think Ken needs to tweak his model for LaRavia/Williams at the 4/5 - or we need to disregard it

The formula for determining the other positions is more straightforward. Height, assist rate (lower indicates a taller position), offensive and defensive rebounding (higher), weight (higher), block rate (higher), two-point percentage (higher), and three-point attempt percentage (lower) are all useful predictors. As with point guards, this part of the model isn’t foolproof, but to me it’s not a big deal if the three and the four are erroneously switched. On a lot of teams, it may not be possible or useful to distinguish those differences even when watching the team play.
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Height - LaRavia taller suggesting C
Assist rate - LaRavia higher suggesting PF
Rebounding - LaRavia very marginally higher suggesting C
Weight - LaRavia lighter suggesting PF
Block rate - LaRavia lower suggesting PF
2-point percentage - LaRavia lower suggesting PF
3-point percentage - LaRavia lower suggesting C (but Williams attempted only 10 3's, to 32 attempts for LaRavia)
 
Yeah, it's more helpful on KP to look at the most frequent lineups for individual teams than to look at which position they supposedly play (depth chart).

For example, for Wake Forest... The most frequent lineups over the last 5 games were:
Whitt Williamson DuBose Mucius Massoud (12.2%)
Whitt Williamson DuBose Mucius Oguama (11.8%)
Big drop
Whitt Williamson Antonio Mucius Massoud (6.1%)
Williamson Adams Antonio Mucius Massoud (5.5%)
Williamson Antonio DuBose Mucius Oguama (4.8%)

That gives you a better idea of potential combinations, I think.

Also, it says right at the bottom of every team's page: "Position designation is estimated by an algorithm and may not reflect reality."
 
Word is that a WF transfer is in a walking boot right now. Shines the spotlight on: a) why minutes/lineup predictions never play out as anticipated; b) why depth is so important. There are no apparent superstars, but this is as deep a roster as WF has had in a long time.
 
Pilchard said:
Word is that a WF transfer is in a walking boot right now. Shines the spotlight on: a) why minutes/lineup predictions never play out as anticipated; b) why depth is so important. There are no apparent superstars, but this is as deep a roster as WF has had in a long time.
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I saw that. Haven't heard yet how serious. Read that he was running. Those non contact injuries scare me.

Let's hope he's okay to start the season because he's a key piece to our success this year.
 
Ouch. That sucks. But better to be in a boot in early June than late October. We should have enough depth throughout the lineup to make up for any injury except to Whitt.
 
I think some are severely underrating Alondes Williams on next years team. He has playmaking ability and will easily be another ball handler and playmaker alongside Williamson and Whitt. Hard to see him not getting 18-24 MPG.
 
DeacsNVols said:
I think some are severely underrating Alondes Williams on next years team. He has playmaking ability and will easily be another ball handler and playmaker alongside Williamson and Whitt. Hard to see him not getting 18-24 MPG.
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Yep. He can create his own shot and finish.

 
PhDeac said:
Yep. He can create his own shot and finish.

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Holy shit. First time I've really paid much attention to him. I know it's a highlight reel...surely there's something wrong with his game that doesn't show up in the highlights to only average 6 points last season? Because he looks like he'd be the best player on our team in those clips.
 
RacerDeac said:
Holy shit. First time I've really paid much attention to him. I know it's a highlight reel...surely there's something wrong with his game that doesn't show up in the highlights to only average 6 points last season? Because he looks like he'd be the best player on our team in those clips.
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Didn't he get COVID mid season and it severely limited his production thereafter?
 
RacerDeac said:
Holy shit. First time I've really paid much attention to him. I know it's a highlight reel...surely there's something wrong with his game that doesn't show up in the highlights to only average 6 points last season? Because he looks like he'd be the best player on our team in those clips.
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He was starting and averaging 8.4 pts early in the season shooting 49% from the field and 55% inside the arc. He had two bad games then was out two weeks with COVID. He struggled for a few weeks then finished the season with 15 vs. Gonzaga.

If you want to imagine him driving the lane then kicking out to Whitt for a corner three, go to 1:40.

I don't think it's a stretch to say Williams, Monsanto, or LaRavia would have been our best player last year.
 
PhDeac said:
He was starting and averaging 8.4 pts early in the season shooting 49% from the field and 55% inside the arc. He had two bad games then was out two weeks with COVID. He struggled for a few weeks then finished the season with 15 vs. Gonzaga.

If you want to imagine him driving the lane then kicking out to Whitt for a corner three, go to 1:40.

I don't think it's a stretch to say Williams, Monsanto, or LaRavia would have been our best player last year.
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I think its a stretch to include Monsanto. I love the SoCon, but it was down this past year, and ETSU was a a mid-tier team in that conference (they finished 5th). Monsanto had a solid season, but ETSU played one game against a team rated higher than #96. Monsanto has potential, but Forbes felt Monsanto couldn't contribute on a team where Wiliiamson started. Williams played in the #1 conference in the country, and LaRavia was the hest player on a winning team in the same conference as #10 Loyola of Chicago.
 
It would be interesting if Forbes went with something of a hockey coach approach. Play hard while you're in for some minutes, come out and rest while other guys are in and go hard. At least until some separate themselves from the rest.
 
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