Strickland33
Well-known member
This is something college fans tell themselves about their team’s player to convince themselves that their guy should/will come back another year. If any NBA scouts agreed that there is a high likelihood Jake improves enough 12 months from now to be a lottery-type talent, he’d be getting projected a lot higher than 44.
NBA teams are already oftentimes drafting based on perceived potential, so if they thought he had that sort of lottery upside with one more year of improvement in college, they’d just draft him this year.
Exactly. I think it's important to actually look at the data, too.
Jake will either be a 23 or 24 year old rookie.
In the last decade, five players have been first rounders at or above 23 years old: Delon Wright (drafted #20 in 2015), CJ Wilcox (drafted #28 in 2014), Gorgui Deng (drafted #21 in 2013), Mason Plumlee (drafted #22 in 2013), and Miles Plumlee (drafted #26 in 2012).
Everybody else is a second rounder.
When I relax the parameters a bit and search for players who are a minimum of 22 years old when drafted, it's a bit more interesting:
Kispert was picked just outside of the lottery at #15 in 2021, but he's the highest pick since the Kings got Justin Jackson (#15) from the Blazers in 2017, the Hawks drafted Adreian Payne at 15 in 2014, and the Cavs got Tyler Zeller from the Mavs in 2012.
You gotta go back all the way to 2006 to find a lottery pick at or older than 22 and that was JJ Redick.
It doesn't happen often.