FckVwls
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Or Millsap in Atlanta. Atlanta at 31 would be a very nice landing spot.
John Collins is #2 in KP's All-ACC Ratings
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Or Millsap in Atlanta. Atlanta at 31 would be a very nice landing spot.
Fuck Your Couch
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Doesn't look like Brogdon has a 4th year, 3 years slightly under 3 million.
Difference between Malachi Richardson at 22 and Murray at 29 is about a million dollars, linear decline based on rookie scale, they both have big pay raises in year 4 if they make it.
The difference between Murray and Ulis who were drafted closer at 29 to 34 is about 2 million dollars, because in the 4th year of the deal Murray would make 2.3mm and Ulis is still at 1.1mm. Without the mandated 4th year raise it would be about a million dollars difference which is what you would expect on a pure linear depreciation which is what I meant by the 4th year jump.
Seems like maybe not a big deal but it's still a million dollar "1st round bonus". But you're right that there's more safety in the early 2nd round than is portrayed.
jaybone
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While I assume there are plenty of freaks at wake. Few would drop out of school to follow their boyfriend to sacramento. There is hope
Fuck Your Couch
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Just noticed this on JC from Jonathan Givony, head scout of DraftExpress. http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nba-draft-stock-watch-euro-sensation-making-waves-193103069.html
John Collins, Wake Forest
Power forward/center
6-10, sophomore
Age: 19
The ACC is the most loaded conference in college basketball, with seven teams in the latest AP Top 25 and nine prospects ranked in the first round of the DraftExpress mock draft.
Despite the conference having numerous big-name upperclassmen and McDonald’s All-Americans, the most prolific scorer (at 28 points per 40 minutes) and most productive player (34.3 player efficiency rating) is the unheralded 19-year-old big man.
Collins has proven to be nearly unguardable lately, racking up 91 points in 108 minutes over his last four games while shooting 72 percent from the floor. The only thing holding him back has been his inability to stay out of foul trouble, which proved costly in narrow losses to Syracuse and Duke last week.
Collins has to work on his defensive fundamentals, ability to guard pick-and-rolls, and passing ability, but it’s difficult to find a player his size with excellent hands, touch, footwork and scoring instincts. He turned 19 in September and is one of the youngest sophomores in college basketball – younger even than many freshmen projected to get drafted.
To maximize his draft stock, Collins will need to show his production can translate into wins. Wake Forest is just 3-6 in ACC play and will struggle to make the NCAA Tournament if it don’t turn things around quickly, which could force Collins to consider waiting for the 2018 NBA draft.
John Collins, Wake Forest
Power forward/center
6-10, sophomore
Age: 19
The ACC is the most loaded conference in college basketball, with seven teams in the latest AP Top 25 and nine prospects ranked in the first round of the DraftExpress mock draft.
Despite the conference having numerous big-name upperclassmen and McDonald’s All-Americans, the most prolific scorer (at 28 points per 40 minutes) and most productive player (34.3 player efficiency rating) is the unheralded 19-year-old big man.
Collins has proven to be nearly unguardable lately, racking up 91 points in 108 minutes over his last four games while shooting 72 percent from the floor. The only thing holding him back has been his inability to stay out of foul trouble, which proved costly in narrow losses to Syracuse and Duke last week.
Collins has to work on his defensive fundamentals, ability to guard pick-and-rolls, and passing ability, but it’s difficult to find a player his size with excellent hands, touch, footwork and scoring instincts. He turned 19 in September and is one of the youngest sophomores in college basketball – younger even than many freshmen projected to get drafted.
To maximize his draft stock, Collins will need to show his production can translate into wins. Wake Forest is just 3-6 in ACC play and will struggle to make the NCAA Tournament if it don’t turn things around quickly, which could force Collins to consider waiting for the 2018 NBA draft.
CreamyGoodness
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collins doesnt leave until we win nattty. might take all 4 years tho
morrison2951
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How much fun would it be with Collins as a Sr!
Would help make up for the Bzaster era.
Would help make up for the Bzaster era.
deaconson
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Like his politics... cutting edge...
BobStackFan4Life
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I'd rather we missed it and get one more year. This team should be much better next year.
It's still a long shot that we make The Dane this year. We should play as hard as we can.
It's also a weak hypothetical as our making the NCAAT would have little or no impact on NBA GMs deciding to draft JC. Now, if we made it to the Sweet 16 with JC averaging 20/15, you might have a point.
BobStackFan4Life
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If we make it to the Sweet 16 I'd rather we make it.
Wakefan77
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Maybe it's in here, but it's assumed the if JC leaves partially developed he'll have a 2nd contract.
What is the NPV of going this year. Not playing because he's too small, physically etc. Then factor in if he can work hard to develop himself as a pro so he gets the next contract.
Versus the NPV of staying another year and maybe not being drafted as high because he stayed but being physically ready for the NPV.
Everyone assumes it's all just pull in the money. Does he have some LaRue and Ish Smith in him who had to work to just stay on rosters.
There is a big difference between a college player who has coaches who's careers depends on player developing and the pros where they will eat a $20M contract to get rid of a problem. Specifically, in college coaches make you do the work, in the pros they give you the opportunity but it will fall on the player to take advantage of the opportunity.
What is the NPV of going this year. Not playing because he's too small, physically etc. Then factor in if he can work hard to develop himself as a pro so he gets the next contract.
Versus the NPV of staying another year and maybe not being drafted as high because he stayed but being physically ready for the NPV.
Everyone assumes it's all just pull in the money. Does he have some LaRue and Ish Smith in him who had to work to just stay on rosters.
There is a big difference between a college player who has coaches who's careers depends on player developing and the pros where they will eat a $20M contract to get rid of a problem. Specifically, in college coaches make you do the work, in the pros they give you the opportunity but it will fall on the player to take advantage of the opportunity.
DeaconSig
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I have no idea what you are talking about.
The actual valuation of going pro depends on the net present value of what he could earn. Look at it this way. If he goes early, gets pushed around, doesn't develop because the pros only care so much about a player developing and he gets one contract and winds up touring Europe.
Compare that to, waits a year, much more developed physically, expands his offensive game, maybe drops a little in the draft because he's older but he can get on the floor as a back up right away. Gets better because he's ready and gets to play in games against great players, then gets a big 2nd pay check.
The net present value of #2 is higher than #1. Of course a complete analysis would factor in the probability of NBA success in each scenario.
This is the case why staying could be better than just getting paid sooner. Surprised our quant/analytic crew has not picked up on this. Apply your Finance classes and Quant/Stats classes and you can make a legit business case why leaving just because you can might not be the best choice.
WFU Lurker
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The premise is faulty. He is likely to develop more next year as a NBA player than as a NCAA player.
RChildress107
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I ran the numbers for going vs staying, assuming a 10ish year career with a modest second contract and a couple seasons on the tail end at the veteran's minimum. The present value favored staying if Collins could jump from #24 (where I last saw him projected) to the bottom of the lottery.
RChildress107
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I tend to agree, but is there any evidence of this?
canadiandeac
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You are under the cloud man...John collins is by far the most skilled low post player in the toughest conference in College...and you think he will end up in Europe?
Sure he may need to add size, but i dont see motivation as a factor for John. He has always competed. to think he will just lose his fire by getting paid is a bit of a reach.
I think he definitely should come back. Could go down as one of the most important players in program history if we could right the ship riding him...but to try and make the statement that leaving early this year would be a mistake...well only someone who has no experience in the matter would claim that.
Shoot a 3 pt shot can be developed in ONE offseason. John has a very bright future ahead of him, whether he leaves this year or next. Everyone hopes for next year, but its a win win situation for Wake regardless.
This guy was a 3 star, under the radar project. Had another offer from Miami but don't recall any other P5 strong interest. In just 1 season of legit PT he has turned into the most polished low post offense threat wake has seen since Rodney( Big E did not have the smooth moves, but found other ways).
The funniest part is people thought Capel was as good a low post coach as Danny...Recruiting is about to get A LOT easier for us
Go Deacs
Sure he may need to add size, but i dont see motivation as a factor for John. He has always competed. to think he will just lose his fire by getting paid is a bit of a reach.
I think he definitely should come back. Could go down as one of the most important players in program history if we could right the ship riding him...but to try and make the statement that leaving early this year would be a mistake...well only someone who has no experience in the matter would claim that.
Shoot a 3 pt shot can be developed in ONE offseason. John has a very bright future ahead of him, whether he leaves this year or next. Everyone hopes for next year, but its a win win situation for Wake regardless.
This guy was a 3 star, under the radar project. Had another offer from Miami but don't recall any other P5 strong interest. In just 1 season of legit PT he has turned into the most polished low post offense threat wake has seen since Rodney( Big E did not have the smooth moves, but found other ways).
The funniest part is people thought Capel was as good a low post coach as Danny...Recruiting is about to get A LOT easier for us
Go Deacs
CreamyGoodness
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Hot DAMN ! I hope you're right. And so do Chill, Woodberry and Danny.