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2015-2016 MLB Stove: Talk To Your Congressman About Stopping DH Expansion

The Giolito write-up was well done.

3. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals
Last year was a good one for the Giolito clan. Showtime an-
nounced a Twin Peaks revival (Lucas’ uncle co-created it with
David Lynch, and his grandfather played Dr. Will Heyward, the
remarkably normal town coroner), and the youngest Giolito
made it all the way to Double-A, striking out better than a batter
per inning and flashing true top-of-the-scouting-scale stuff
along the way. He is now more than three years removed from
the UCL tear that kept him from going first overall in the 2012
draft, and with an invitation to Nationals spring training already
secured, Giolito may soon be on the hunt for some cherry pie
and a damn fine cup of coffee in the nation’s capital.
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5 rays: snell (21), honeywell (52), adames (54), Guerrieri (84), and robertson (88)

i think snell is low. he's arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball, and he'll ne in aaa this year.

there's a ton of depth at the upper levels that isn't even represented here. mahtook, brett, and shaffer are all big league ready and look like at worst util options. they also had 17 yo adrien rondon and 2015 1st rounder garret whitley ahead of robertson in their team listing. i'm guessing those 2 would be in the top 150 or so as a result. this ignores jake bauers who BA and other sources have rated as high as 3 in the system. the rays system is really, really strong right now.
 
Potential DH opinions:

1. The DH is great because HOME RUNS!
2. The NL needs the DH because competitive balance
3. Keep the DH out of the NL because Joe Maddon bats pitchers in the 8th spot and also Madison Bumgarner!
4. FUCK THE DH. KILL IT WITH FIRE.

Did I miss one?
 
CantStandYa said:
Potential DH opinions:

1. The DH is great because HOME RUNS!
2. The NL needs the DH because competitive balance
3. Keep the DH out of the NL because Joe Maddon bats pitchers in the 8th spot and also Madison Bumgarner!
4. FUCK THE DH. KILL IT WITH FIRE.

Did I miss one?
Click to expand...

5. Players Association and $$$
 
5 Astros on the BP list. (Bregman, Reed, Martes, Cameron, Tucker)

3 more former-Astros that were traded last year. (Phillips (Brewers), Appel (Phillies), Nottingham (Athletics)).

Crazy amount of talent that was in the organization last season.

Edit: and that's with Correa and McCullers graduating. Jesus.
 
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Details On The Nationals’ Offer To Yoenis Cespedes

Prior to the Mets’ re-signing of Yoenis Cespedes to a three-year, $75MM contract with an opt-out clause after the first season, the Nationals were viewed as the primary competitor for his services, offering a reported five-year deal with a value said to be around $100MM and an opt-out after two years. A pair of reports from Jon Heyman (Twitter link) and Peter Gammons of the MLB Network (at GammonsDaily.com) now shed some further light on the matter. According to Heyman, the base value of the contract was $110MM, but the deal contained “significant” deferrals. While that info alone makes it difficult to compare the two offers, Gammons adds further context, stating that the $110MM was to be paid out over a 15-year term, and after factoring in the deferred monies, the present-day value of the proposed contract was roughly $77MM.
Click to expand...

Mike Rizzo is really trying hard to screw over his successor.
 
avalon said:
Details On The Nationals’ Offer To Yoenis Cespedes



Mike Rizzo is really trying hard to screw over his successor.
Click to expand...

Deferred money is not a Rizzo thing, it's a Lerner (the owner's) thing. The Lerners are unbelievably savvy, and they seek to defer money in every contract as "money that you can spend tomorrow is worth less than money you spend today."

This allows the Nats (or the agent representing the player) to claim that they offered a $5 year $100 million contract, when in present day dollars, the offer is less than that. This is why people are stupid when they say the Mets signed Cespedes for less than what the Nats offered. No. The Mets will pay Cespedes $27.5 million next year, far more than the Nats offered, and as long as Cepedes doesn't tank, he can elect to be a free agent next year, when no high quality OF are available, and get far more than what the Nats offered over the remaining 4 years of the contract. The Nats deferred a ton of money in the Scherzer deal which (Ted Lerner negotiated alone) which allowed Boras to claim that Scherzer's contract was for a lot more than what it really was.
 
I understand the reasoning, but it also means the Nats will be paying a guy $15 million per year for seven years after he's done playing for them. That's $15 million that could be spent on improving the 2022-28 teams.

But that's fair on who prefers the structure, in the future I will direct my mocking at the Lerners.
 
Fair point, but the Lerner's assume that MLB revenues will continue to rise over time and it will be far easier to pay $million in 2025 than in 2016. They other thing is that Ted Lerner is 90 or close to it. He know he won't be paying the $million owed in 2025, and he doesn't care if the Nats suck when he is worm food.
 
Pilchard said:
Deferred money is not a Rizzo thing, it's a Lerner (the owner's) thing. The Lerners are unbelievably savvy, and they seek to defer money in every contract as "money that you can spend tomorrow is worth less than money you spend today."

This allows the Nats (or the agent representing the player) to claim that they offered a $5 year $100 million contract, when in present day dollars, the offer is less than that. This is why people are stupid when they say the Mets signed Cespedes for less than what the Nats offered. No. The Mets will pay Cespedes $27.5 million next year, far more than the Nats offered, and as long as Cepedes doesn't tank, he can elect to be a free agent next year, when no high quality OF are available, and get far more than what the Nats offered over the remaining 4 years of the contract. The Nats deferred a ton of money in the Scherzer deal which (Ted Lerner negotiated alone) which allowed Boras to claim that Scherzer's contract was for a lot more than what it really was.
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Whelp, that sure has been a successful strategy this offseason.
 
rays apparently shipping mcgee to colorado for dickerson. also swapping minor league pitchers. hoping it isnt snell or honeywell. if it's TG i'd be a bit sad to see him go. glad to get a LH power bat. we have a ton of rhh, but we were really light on lhh. i hope he can overcome the coors effect.
 
deacphan said:
rays apparently shipping mcgee to colorado for dickerson. also swapping minor league pitchers. hoping it isnt snell or honeywell. if it's TG i'd be a bit sad to see him go. glad to get a LH power bat. we have a ton of rhh, but we were really light on lhh. i hope he can overcome the coors effect.
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Dickerson didn't play much last year because of plantar fasciitis. Better hope that he is cured as that can be a lingering injury. Also, his home/road splits are a major red flag for the Rays, as he has been a completely different hitter away from Coors for his career:

Home: .410/.675/1.085 (OBP/SLG/OPS)
Road: .286/.410/.695

If Dickerson's season stats look like his road stats next year, the Rays should be getting the pitchers to be named later, not vice versa.
 
Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski 22m22 minutes ago
Don't go too nuts over Dickerson's home/road splits - generic park factors far better projector than a player's actual H/R splits.

Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski 22m22 minutes ago
The noise for H/R as a predictor of H/R absolutely overwhelms the signal.

Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski 21m21 minutes ago
I learned that lesson the hard way with Andres Galarraga and Dante Bichette in the 90s. Use park-neutral stats, not road stats.
 
deacphan said:
Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski 22m22 minutes ago
Don't go too nuts over Dickerson's home/road splits - generic park factors far better projector than a player's actual H/R splits.

Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski 22m22 minutes ago
The noise for H/R as a predictor of H/R absolutely overwhelms the signal.

Dan Szymborski ‏@DSzymborski 21m21 minutes ago
I learned that lesson the hard way with Andres Galarraga and Dante Bichette in the 90s. Use park-neutral stats, not road stats.
Click to expand...

Most teams look at exit velocity and trajectory off the bat these days, right? Seems like that type of data eliminates the park factors problem.
 
if you look at the park neutral stats they're good. hopefully he can adjust to seeing breaking balls the same home and away, but he looks like a good hitter. we needed some lh power, and he gives us that for 3 years. it sounds like the pitching prospect isn't one of the top 10 guys, so my guess is german marquez. if that's the case, i'm glad we made the deal. i like mcgg, but moving a rp for a needed position player is big. his non-park adjusted stats will look dreadful compared to what he's done so far, but if he hits for a .750 ops he will have been one of the 3 guys on the team to do it (with more than 250 pas).
 
TexasDeac10 said:
Most teams look at exit velocity and trajectory off the bat these days, right? Seems like that type of data eliminates the park factors problem.
Click to expand...

a big problem with coors is the effect on breaking balls. so guys that play there everyday "forget" how to hit normal breaking balls on the road. as such, they'll see a bigger drop on the road than other guys. a lot will depend on how he adjusts to breaking balls, but the dude has always mashed.
 
zips projects a .774 ops as a ray, fyi.

CZ1q-8aWEAADdoy.jpg:large


the rays position depth is redic right now. really expecting to trade an of. i wonder if maddon want guyer or jennings more.
 
looks like it is marquez. we can announce the pearce signing now as he frees up a 40-man spot. i'm hoping we can move a rh-of like jennings, guyer, or mahtook.
 
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