Wake Forest vs. Florida State Game Thread

[RJKarl]

We need to beat Clemson to have any hope at an NCAA bid.

It was always a pipe dream to think team had a shot an NCAA bid.

 

[Deacsfan27]

One of the major problems is we had Mitchell and or Brandon on the court while being pressed. Their size against F$U is a huge disadvantage. We also don't have a big to pass over a press with JC in constant foul trouble.

I was surprised FSU didn't press us more. If they get the ball out of Bryant's hands, they could use the press to dominate us.

Right---making a personnel change and getting Crawford back in there would've been a legitimate good move. If we were calling a timeout to do that then it would have been productive.

 

[wfupdx]

I understand why it FEELS like a timeout may have helped stop the run, but beyond speculating that calling timeout COULD have helped stop it, is there any data to back up that it would have helped us?

I'm not trying to be a dick, but a timeout isn't a magical cure. Personally I would have liked to see a timeout after FSU took the lead to discuss how to attack the press and the defense they were running to make sure the guys were up on it, but we didn't.

You're a stats person, so you know there is no way to "prove" it outside of a randomized controlled trial which obviously is not possible and would have to be run over and over as so many other variables can impact. But, the vast majority of coaches would have called a time out, got in their best players, ensured a reasonable offensive set got run and try to get a bucket and a stop to end the run. Instead, things snowballed. You could just see the panic on half our players faces (ie Wilbeken etc).

 

[deacz]

No we don't.

Beat BC (x2), GT, State, Pitt, Miami

Beat two of: @State, @Pitt, @VPI, @Cuse

Steal literally any other game

That's 9-9 right there.

I don't see us winning any of those road games at this point. Anything is possible, but we have to win every home game other than against the very top teams. I do think 9-9 should get us in.

 

[siff]

One of the major problems is we had Mitchell and or Brandon on the court while being pressed. Their size against F$U is a huge disadvantage. We also don't have a big to pass over a press with JC in constant foul trouble.

I was surprised FSU didn't press us more. If they get the ball out of Bryant's hands, they could use the press to dominate us.

The rare F$U/FSU combo. Nicely done, rj.

 

[Shorty]

Yes, but the 4 timeouts after the 9-0 didn't stem the FSU tide. The game was still in the balance at 70-66 when the first time out stopped play, and then right after that TO, FSU scored the next 6 points. So, why would anyone think that a TO when the FSU run was 5-0 or 7-0 would've made a difference?

No one is saying time outs WOULD have made a difference. The point is that they COULD have made a difference. As HC, Manning has to use everything at his disposal to try to win the game, including timeouts.

 

[Deacsfan27]

I don't see us winning any of those road games at this point. Anything is possible, but we have to win every home game other than against the very top teams. I do think 9-9 should get us in.

I listed Pitt twice---we don't even play there. So win 2 the other 3 (1.11 win expectancy) and then steal one at ND or Clemson (.42 WE over those two games).

It's much harder if we don't beat Clemson, but it's certainly not out of the question.

 

[JuiceCrewAllStar]

Those calculations never take into account losing a should-win game.

 

[Deacsfan27]

Those calculations never take into account losing a should-win game.

Which ones? I try not to deal in full wins or losses when projecting games, I was just showing him how we could make the NCAAT without beating Clemson.

KenPom's certainly do and he has us at 7.75 wins. If you take out the Clemson game then it brings it down to 7.26 wins. It certainly makes it more difficult to make the Tournament if we lose tomorrow, but are by no means out of it.

 

[VOTSdeac]

No we don't.

Beat BC (x2), GT, State, Pitt, Miami

Beat two of: @State, @Pitt, @VPI, @Cuse

Steal literally any other game

That's 9-9 right there.

This is statistically correct, but I think what the original poster meant was that if we don't win this game, it's not going to point towards our ability to do the things mentioned above. This is a game that we have not won consistently in the past few years. Most of the games you mention above are games we have not won consistently in the past few years. We need to beat Clemson if we as fans want to feel optimistic.



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[88Deac]

If we don't beat Clemson, it is time to hit the panic button. Things are very likely to go downhill fast if we lose this game. And 9-9 definitely gets us in the NCAAT this year with the strength of the ACC. We can get there if we lose tomorrow, but I would bet just about anything against it.

 

[canadiandeac]

People also need to attempt to understand coaching in terms of timeouts is different than it was two years ago. You used to have five and that gives you a couple extra to call for whatever reason you like. Now you have 4, at most 3 in the second half. Saving those 3 timeouts for late game situations is probably the best strategy for a coach to take imo. The game is changing.


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sssshhhhhhh...people don't understand this here. They think those TOs should only be used to stop the run FSU was having. as if it would have actually done something.

I agree with you completely. And I also notice when Danny is waiting to use the TV timeout as oppose to wasting one of his own.

 

[DCDeac]

He was saying you left out the 9-0 run that started before your breakdown. That's the run during which we could have used a timeout.

Timeouts are also an important way to manage depth issues and get some extra rest for starters.

Or Manning believes our conditioning is a strong point and calling timeouts only benefits the opponent. Based on the work that guys like Crawford, Woods, Dinos, and others obviously put in during the offseason I'd guess he does think our athleticism is a strength.

After every timeout FSU brought extremely intense ball pressure whereas there was some let up during extended play.

 

[Pilchard]

If we don't beat Clemson, it is time to hit the panic button. Things are very likely to go downhill fast if we lose this game. And 9-9 definitely gets us in the NCAAT this year with the strength of the ACC. We can get there if we lose tomorrow, but I would bet just about anything against it.

The sky is falling mantra of this board is maddening. WF/Clemson game will be close to a pick. Clemson is an experienced team that has already won on the road at ranked S. Carolina. WF could win, but might lose. Either way, the season will go on, and WF will win some games that are unexpected and lose other ones that many think WF should win. The season will not be decided tomorrow -- either way. Based upon recent history, the knee jerk desire to hit the panic button is somewhat understandable, but tomorrow's game is no more important than the home game against Miami or the consecutive road games at State and Cuse later in January or the many other games that WF could win or could lose.

 

[Deac83]

I doubt anyone here thinks just calling a TO there would have won us the game. It might have allowed us to regain some composure and stay close enough. What is really being said here is that if DM had called a TO people would feel he was engaged in the game and thinking about how he could affect the outcome. Waiting to start using TO's until we are down double digits is too late and raises the speculation that he's not a good in game coach.

Saving your TO's for when you are down 16 at the end of the game seems fairly dumb as well.

 

[PhDeac]

Or Manning believes our conditioning is a strong point and calling timeouts only benefits the opponent. Based on the work that guys like Crawford, Woods, Dinos, and others obviously put in during the offseason I'd guess he does think our athleticism is a strength.

After every timeout FSU brought extremely intense ball pressure whereas there was some let up during extended play.

He's a fool if he believes timeouts benefited a better team with superior talent, athleticism, and depth.

Pilch, the sky fell years ago.

 

[Strickland33]

I understand why it FEELS like a timeout may have helped stop the run, but beyond speculating that calling timeout COULD have helped stop it, is there any data to back up that it would have helped us?

I'm not trying to be a dick, but a timeout isn't a magical cure. Personally I would have liked to see a timeout after FSU took the lead to discuss how to attack the press and the defense they were running to make sure the guys were up on it, but we didn't.

You may not be trying, but damn doofus.

 

[DeacDaddy]

ITT: People say that Manning is a bad in-game coach and doesn't make good decisions, yet want him to call timeout where players then have more time to listen to his in-game coaching and bad decisions.

On the contrary, I don't think Manning has a great deal of inspiration to give them. But if we started a game well, and he obviously prepped them for that, then he has something to draw from.

Timeouts are a small part of the bigger picture. My main goal for a timeout with this team is simply to give the players themselves a chance to breathe, physically and mentally. If we can just get our guys to settle down, they have basketball talent. That's about all I am hoping for, that they regain their composure and reset their minds and bodies, to prepare to go out and use their muscle memory/basketball talent to pull the game out. I'm not looking for Danny's coaching during TO's as much as our players to coach themselves up a little. Sad that it's this way, but that's what I see, and for that reason alone a TO could be useful.

 

[Strickland33]

Timeouts are a small part of the bigger picture. My main goal for a timeout with this team is simply to give the players themselves a chance to breathe, physically and mentally. If we can just get our guys to settle down, they have basketball talent. That's about all I am hoping for, that they regain their composure and reset their minds and bodies, to prepare to go out and use their muscle memory/basketball talent to pull the game out. I'm not looking for Danny's coaching during TO's as much as our players to coach themselves up a little. Sad that it's this way, but that's what I see, and for that reason alone a TO could be useful.

This is the point.

 

[knowell]

You're a stats person, so you know there is no way to "prove" it outside of a randomized controlled trial which obviously is not possible and would have to be run over and over as so many other variables can impact. But, the vast majority of coaches would have called a time out, got in their best players, ensured a reasonable offensive set got run and try to get a bucket and a stop to end the run. Instead, things snowballed. You could just see the panic on half our players faces (ie Wilbeken etc).

This.

Coaches do a majority of their job not on game day and Manning is pretty good at a lot of that.

Coaches have only a limited number of things they can do to influence the game post tip off. Time-outs and player rotations are two that manning is still figuring out and it has hurt our chances in numerous games. He also has to start letting our players play longer with foul trouble. He is essentially fouling our players out with less than 5 fouls.