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Wake Forest vs. Florida State Game Thread

DCDeac said:
Our bench played 67 minutes, scored 22 points on 40% shooting with 6 turnovers.

FSU's bench played 75 minutes, scored 24 points on 46% shooting with 5 turnovers.

Mayes and Bacon combined for 46 points. Woods and Crawford played identical minutes and scored 32 points combined.

It wasn't timeouts or lineups. It's not that our bench played terribly or we have no depth. Their two best guards destroyed our two best guards in the same number of minutes played, and Collins was a no show because he reacted poorly to Ojo's physical play. Woods started hot so it's easy to overlook the fact that he made exactly 1 field goal in the 2nd half prior to FSU taking a 12 point lead with around 4 minutes left.

If you want to slam Manning for something, it probably should be how he's handled Doral and SJM. SJM had 5 DNP's and 5 games with 5 or fewer junk minutes before getting what appears to be a promotion to basically splitting time with Doral. You have to assume Doral hasn't matured as much as Manning thought heading into the season, and throwing SJM to the fire against legit teams with very little real game time prior to that means we're pretty much fucked if Collins has foul trouble. 5 fouls, no points, 11 minutes, 2 boards against FSU really hurt.
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Finally someone who understands basketball...Post of the season so far.
 
Criticizing Manning for not using a timeout when he should have to try to keep the game in reach and realizing that they had more Talent than us and would have probably won the game anyway there are two different things.

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should Manning have used a TO when the game started getting away, yes, but I like his defensive changes throughout the game and some of his lineup changes. Manning was limited in his lineup changes due to the foul situation. For good or bad, if you get in foul trouble you are sitting the pine...maybe at a later time we will reap the benefits of this strategy (by Collins not getting into foul trouble or being able to play with a foul or two). I am just not going to get too upset about the TO. The only scorer left, after Collins, was Woods and he was shut down in the second half. It was a pickle for sure!

FSU is a really good, athletic, tall and strong team...Hamilton is a good recruiter but not a great game coach. The second part of my statement is the reason we were in the game at all!
 
The timeout thing is reaching absurd proportions.

Statistically, teams on offense coming out of a timeout score fewer points on the next possession. The second commonly assumed "run stopping" aspect of calling timeouts is also not statistically supported. The only guarantees a timeout gives you is that you don't get to run in transition, both team's players get to rest, and you can substitute.

There are plenty of successful coaches that hate calling timeouts. Manning is one of them, and even he called one when FSU got it to 10 at the 5 minute mark. And out of the timeout, we turned it over and they went up 12. The assumption that calling more timeouts would benefit this team is probably one of the most flawed assumptions in all of the Manning criticisms. It's a change that, if made, could absolutely be a detriment to the team instead of a benefit, but posters are acting like it's worth 10 points per game.
 
DCDeac said:
The timeout thing is reaching absurd proportions.

Statistically, teams on offense coming out of a timeout score fewer points on the next possession. The second commonly assumed "run stopping" aspect of calling timeouts is also not statistically supported. The only guarantees a timeout gives you is that you don't get to run in transition, both team's players get to rest, and you can substitute.

There are plenty of successful coaches that hate calling timeouts. Manning is one of them, and even he called one when FSU got it to 10 at the 5 minute mark. And out of the timeout, we turned it over and they went up 12. The assumption that calling more timeouts would benefit this team is probably one of the most flawed assumptions in all of the Manning criticisms. It's a change that, if made, could absolutely be a detriment to the team instead of a benefit, but posters are acting like it's worth 10 points per game.
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Thank you.

Another thing to consider is that FSU was pressing on every in-bounds pass and we had several calls that were close to 5 seconds. You don't necessarily want to create more chances for them to turn you over than you already are going to have. Calling a timeout and having to inbound against their pressure D is another great chance for a turnover.
 
siff said:
I'm annoyed that Danny seems to conserve his TOs as if they offer rollover opportunities for future games. I'm ecstatic that, for the first time in almost a decade, we go into road games against Top 20 ACC foes believing we have every right to walk out with a W.
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It's a tradition with Wake coaches stretching back to the days of Dave Odom.
 
DCDeac said:
Our bench played 67 minutes, scored 22 points on 40% shooting with 6 turnovers.

FSU's bench played 75 minutes, scored 24 points on 46% shooting with 5 turnovers.

Mayes and Bacon combined for 46 points. Woods and Crawford played identical minutes and scored 32 points combined.

It wasn't timeouts or lineups. It's not that our bench played terribly or we have no depth. Their two best guards destroyed our two best guards in the same number of minutes played, and Collins was a no show because he reacted poorly to Ojo's physical play. Woods started hot so it's easy to overlook the fact that he made exactly 1 field goal in the 2nd half prior to FSU taking a 12 point lead with around 4 minutes left.

If you want to slam Manning for something, it probably should be how he's handled Doral and SJM. SJM had 5 DNP's and 5 games with 5 or fewer junk minutes before getting what appears to be a promotion to basically splitting time with Doral. You have to assume Doral hasn't matured as much as Manning thought heading into the season, and throwing SJM to the fire against legit teams with very little real game time prior to that means we're pretty much fucked if Collins has foul trouble. 5 fouls, no points, 11 minutes, 2 boards against FSU really hurt.
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There's a lot to like in this post.

I thought Doral being wide open and unable to convert an easy dunk, then hurting himself landing on his ass took our only real size out of the game. Very next FSU possession their center slammed home an open dunk.

SJM looked awful - completely agree.

Collins was overmatched and I had dreams of a high screen and roll with Crawford to pull their bigs out (which they are too slow to do). Alas, we don't have that play or capability, apparently. That takes a lot of in practice and after practice team work (see: Stockton and Malone).

And 46-32 is bad, but not "destroyed" imho.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
Thank you.

Another thing to consider is that FSU was pressing on every in-bounds pass and we had several calls that were close to 5 seconds. You don't necessarily want to create more chances for them to turn you over than you already are going to have. Calling a timeout and having to inbound against their pressure D is another great chance for a turnover.
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It's absurd that some around here think it's absurd to consider stopping the bleeding with a TO when teams go on 12-0 second half runs against us.
 
siff said:
It's absurd that some around here think it's absurd to consider stopping the bleeding with a TO when teams go on 12-0 second half runs against us.
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I don't think that's what DC was qualifying as "absurd", but rather the notion that everything is magically better just because Manning called a timeout and that would have covered up all the other deficiencies that were occurring at that point.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
I don't think that's what DC was qualifying as "absurd", but rather the notion that everything is magically better just because Manning called a timeout and that would have covered up all the other deficiencies that were occurring at that point.
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Do you or DC actually believe that anyone around here thinks a timeout will magically turn our program around?
 
It's like drawing up a play out of dead ball situation. Will that alone with the game? Of course not. Will it perhaps provide a spark? Possibly. I mean, that's what the timeouts are for - a break, to settle down, to get your shit together.
 
Fans love to harp on timeout usage and free throw shooting because it's the easiest thing to criticize. People honestly don't think Roy Williams is a good coach because he rarely calls timeout to stop a run as if it's that easy.
 
siff said:
It's absurd that some around here think it's absurd to consider stopping the bleeding with a TO when teams go on 12-0 second half runs against us.
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No one has said it was "absurd" to call a TO. Most have said it might have helped.

But the reality is F$U finally started thinking and playing like they should have all game. Many of us pointed out before the game that F$U is a match-up nightmare for our team. If Leonard Hamilton was a decent game coach, they could have beaten us by 30.
 
bmoneydeac said:
Fans love to harp on timeout usage and free throw shooting because it's the easiest thing to criticize. People honestly don't think Roy Williams is a good coach because he rarely calls timeout to stop a run as if it's that easy.
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Wait a second, you mean if Danny called a TO that it wouldn't have turned Wilbekin into Josh Howard and Brandon into his dad. No way.
 
Time to move on... can everyone agree that if Wake loses tomorrow the season is virtually fucked? With a loss tomorrow there is a possibility that they end up starting 1-8 (assuming Miami is also able to win at the Joel). The team needs to start 2-1 to create some momentum & prevent a mental "throwing in the towel". Tomorrow on paper is likely the 5th easiest game Wake will have in ACC play. Vegas will likely have it around a Pick, but really hoping WF bring their A game.
 
DCDeac said:
Our bench played 67 minutes, scored 22 points on 40% shooting with 6 turnovers.

FSU's bench played 75 minutes, scored 24 points on 46% shooting with 5 turnovers.

Mayes and Bacon combined for 46 points. Woods and Crawford played identical minutes and scored 32 points combined.

It wasn't timeouts or lineups. It's not that our bench played terribly or we have no depth. Their two best guards destroyed our two best guards in the same number of minutes played, and Collins was a no show because he reacted poorly to Ojo's physical play. Woods started hot so it's easy to overlook the fact that he made exactly 1 field goal in the 2nd half prior to FSU taking a 12 point lead with around 4 minutes left.
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I am curious how many of those 46 points came against the Childress/Wilbekin combo.
 
daaberry said:
Time to move on... can everyone agree that if Wake loses tomorrow the season is virtually fucked? With a loss tomorrow there is a possibility that they end up starting 1-8 (assuming Miami is also able to win at the Joel). The team needs to start 2-1 to create some momentum & prevent a mental "throwing in the towel". Tomorrow on paper is likely the 5th easiest game Wake will have in ACC play. Vegas will likely have it around a Pick, but really hoping WF bring their A game.
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No...it's a toss-up game. If we win tomorrow we stay on track to where we should be and effectively pick up a half win early in the season. If we lose we drop that half-game, but there are still a ton of opportunities left.

Now a Tuesday night loss to Boston College would be very bad for our season. We are 93% favorite there.
 
DCDeac said:
The timeout thing is reaching absurd proportions.

Statistically, teams on offense coming out of a timeout score fewer points on the next possession. The second commonly assumed "run stopping" aspect of calling timeouts is also not statistically supported. .
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Not sure statistics can be used to prove or disprove this point. If you are getting your ass kicked before the timeout, you likely will continue getting your ass kicked after the timeout, the question is whether you alter the trajectory of the ass kicking. I don't believe for a second that calling a timeout right away would have changed the eventual outcome of this game. However, we clearly got "rattled", the crowd was going crazy, we had extra timeouts, and we did not have an optimal lineup in the game. Is this not the entire basis of home/away advantage? I actually think Manning has done a good job coaching with regard to game plans and big picture type things. I don't think he quite manages each and every minute ideally in games, particularly with regard to who is on the floor together. Example, there was a critical time where McClinton and SJM were in the game together. There were times when Childress and Wilbeken were together. Even if for only 1-2 minutes, these lineups are killers that often lead to bad turnovers on offense that lead to easy buckets for the other team. Players like Childress/SJM/Wilbeken/Mclinton won't hurt you too bad as fillers surrounded by our starters, but when multiple are on floor together then they are forced to be primary players and bad stuff happens---like Childress/Wilbeken taking it into the lane against 4 players. The run at the end of the 1st half and the run that eventually put the game out of reach both happened when we had a bad mix of players on the floor.
 
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