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John Collins is #2 in KP's All-ACC Ratings

TownieDeac said:
has anyone run the numbers on this?
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If you assume the drafting team exercises it's options and matches any qualifying offer , that he receives a modest second contract in line with a borderline starter (50 over 4 years) and then plays a couple of years at the veteran minimum, then it makes sense to wait a year if he jumps from 24 to 13.

That's probably best case scenario for Collins career wise. I didn't run the numbers for other scenarios. I assumed a 5% interest rate.

I used the same second contract for Collins under either scenario. I'm not sure how reasonable that assumption is. I'm pretty sure there is data indicating that age is a better predictor of a player's peak than years in the league (can't remember where I read this).
 
The only real way coming back is better is 1. if you improve your draft slot AND 2. you end up not being a solid NBA rotation player. Otherwise you are going to be better off getting paid an extra year at NBA market value (non rookie contracts) before you are too old to be productive.
 
Also I believe a huge consideration for these guys is making the decision that maximizes the percentage chance that they make 4-5 million+ playing professional basketball. Which makes sense.

If someone offered me as a normal citizen 5 million dollar check today and said this is yours or you can roll this dice and if you get 1,2,3,4 or 5 you get 8 million but if you roll a 6 you get nothing....well I think the logical choice is to punt the EV take the 5 million....diminishing returns, etc.

These factors listed above are the main reason that 90% of the underclassmen that have first round grades leave. Maybe more. Perhaps Collins will be an exception. Or maybe he will go thru the pre-draft process and determine he isn't a lock to get a gtd NBA deal if he comes out. That I don't know.
 
Scariest pick for any team is #10 Harry Giles, who certainly has a huge upside if he stays healthy but that is a big IF given what has happened. If I was an NBA front office guy, I would use my puck in JC over Giles given the health and how far Collins has risen. He has HUGE potential!!
 
He is without a doubt lottery. I just hope we don't find that out until after NEXT season.
 
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He needs another 20-30 pounds to play in the post in the NBA. But he has the talent.
 
FckVwls said:
The only real way coming back is better is 1. if you improve your draft slot AND 2. you end up not being a solid NBA rotation player. Otherwise you are going to be better off getting paid an extra year at NBA market value (non rookie contracts) before you are too old to be productive.
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How would you net an extra year at a higher than minimum rate. Second and third contracts are likely to be same length under either scenario, just delayed one year. The "extra year," if there was one, would be at the minimum
 
RChildress107 said:
How would you net an extra year at a higher than minimum rate. Second and third contracts are likely to be same length under either scenario, just delayed one year. The "extra year," if there was one, would be at the minimum
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What are you talking about, getting to be an UFA for the first time (after rookie and 2nd contract) a year younger is a big advantage. More likely to get a bigger/longer deal.

The market isn't that inefficient. That is to say, if it made sense financially for sure fire mid-to-late 1st round picks to go back to school you would see a lot of them do it. But they don't. Because it is a poor financial decision. Collins could be an exception if he really loves school, but it would be an exception.
 
FckVwls said:
What are you talking about, getting to be an UFA for the first time (after rookie and 2nd contract) a year younger is a big advantage. More likely to get a bigger/longer deal.

The market isn't that inefficient. That is to say, if it made sense financially for sure fire mid-to-late 1st round picks to go back to school you would see a lot of them do it. But they don't. Because it is a poor financial decision. Collins could be an exception if he really loves school, but it would be an exception.
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You are assuming that they are making the decision based on rational financial strategies. Given the high percentage of players who go broke despite making millions, I think that's a bad assumption.
 
i think most people are trying to analyze it by what we are privy to. i'd say looking at what players in similar positions have done in the past is more telling than some other notion posited here.
 
FckVwls said:
What are you talking about, getting to be an UFA for the first time (after rookie and 2nd contract) a year younger is a big advantage. More likely to get a bigger/longer deal.

The market isn't that inefficient. That is to say, if it made sense financially for sure fire mid-to-late 1st round picks to go back to school you would see a lot of them do it. But they don't. Because it is a poor financial decision. Collins could be an exception if he really loves school, but it would be an exception.
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Your assuming a player makes it to a 2nd contract. What's the percentage of players that wash out after their rookie deals? Or get smaller contracts just to give them a second chance?
 
I'm not coming down on either side of the financial argument. I don't know whether it's better to go now or wait. I object to using the fact that nobody waits as proof positive that the financials favor going now. Even if a scrupulously honest agent proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that it was better to wait, most kids wouldn't be able to wait. In addition, their friends, hangers-on, agents by proxy and in some cases their family, are urging them to go now. Because it benefits them. Not because a thoroughly researched financial analysis proves it is better to go now.
 
deacphan said:
i think most people are trying to analyze it by what we are privy to. i'd say looking at what players in similar positions have done in the past is more telling than some other notion posited here.
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So Collins hasn't been going to class for the these two years? Finance 101 would cover the NPV concept. It's not quant.
 
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