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John Collins is #2 in KP's All-ACC Ratings

MichDeac25 said:
Then what does it matter if you go early or stay? Collins has 1st round ability. I don't think anyone thinks he would fall to the 2nd round next year. It's really only a question as to whether he improves his stock. At worst, one extra year could conceivably make him a better player and improve his chances of sticking. (And I do reject the notion that staying a year is not as good developmentally as going to the league. He's playing under a coach who was in the league, playing the same position, for a long time, and is playing in the best basketball conference in the country.) So how much does 1 year matter then if he washes out in 3 years anyway? Maybe he makes more at a higher draft pick after Jr year.
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Oh that's not true. His draft stock could definitely fall. That's the point. Right now he has some major holes in his game (passing, defensive awareness). Teams are probably okay with that at 19.3. But if it doesn't get any better at those by 20.3 yrs and his offensive efficiency and/or FT% falls off some....
 
Ivan Raab is a good example of a player who actually has gotten better this year (especially on defense) but probably will go lower in the draft than he would have in '16. I'm sure all the Cal boards were saying "if he comes back he'll be top 5-10 for sure!" this time last year.
 
I told myself I was done with this thread, but couldn't stay away.

Staying an extra year usually means having more games to showcase the flaws in your game. As stated above, that "potential" and "upside" as a freshman/sophomore can become a weakness or shortcoming as a junior/senior.

Sure, Collins could add some range to his shot and work on some other things, but not sure he needs college for that.
 
Pilchard said:
There's a flipside to the second contract argument that also dictates that a first-round pick come out.

When MD PG Melo Trimble was a frosh, he contemplated coming out as a projected back-half of the 1st round pick. He stayed, and the argument was after his sophomore year, he would be a lottery pick. Well, Trimble's sophomore year exposed weaknesses in his game that caused him to no longer be projected as a first round pick at all. So, he stayed for his junior year, and again, it looks like Trimble won't be a first round pick after this year either, and there is no chance he will ever be a lottery pick. So, when you have a shot for guaranteed seven figures, you take it. Maybe, you can hit it even bigger on your 2nd contract; maybe there is no second contract, but a guaranteed 3 years of salary at $3 million ($1 million per year - which is going to rise as the result of the new CBA) for the last pick of the first round is life changing money. Would never fault anyone for making the choice to head to the NBA if NBA first round money was a certainty.
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James Michael McAdoo went from projected lottery to undrafted. Collins has more pure skill than him, but if you're projected where Collins is being projected, you go and take the money 10 times out of 10.

There are holes in Collins' game (passing, dribbling near the perimeter, defense) that he may not ever improve. You run the risk of further exposing those weaknesses by staying an extra year.
 
I feel like there are definitely more examples of guys going from late first round to undrafted or second round by staying than guys who actually improve their stock.
 
Ayo said:
James Michael McAdoo went from projected lottery to undrafted. Collins has more pure skill than him, but if you're projected where Collins is being projected, you go and take the money 10 times out of 10.

There are holes in Collins' game (passing, dribbling near the perimeter, defense) that he may not ever improve. You run the risk of further exposing those weaknesses by staying an extra year.
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Or he improves on them and becomes a top 5 pick :thumbsup: #stayingpositive
 
Buddy Hield did well staying. He was Big 12 POY after his JR year and could have been drafted. Ended up being picked 6th in the draft and doing well in the NBA.
 
Demetrius Jackson was projected as late lottery last year by most & opted to leave & fall into the 2nd round. He did somehow secure a contract but has spent his rookie year in the NBDL. There are going to be examples of both good & bad. I would hope if we miss the tournament that Collins has the hunger to come back searching for team success. He'll be the same age as most sophmores & even some older frosh next year.
 
In DM we should trust- he should have some very good advice for JC to consider at season's end and we shall see how it turns out.
 
DeacsATS said:
I told myself I was done with this thread, but couldn't stay away.

Staying an extra year usually means having more games to showcase the flaws in your game. As stated above, that "potential" and "upside" as a freshman/sophomore can become a weakness or shortcoming as a junior/senior.

Sure, Collins could add some range to his shot and work on some other things, but not sure he needs college for that.
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Basically, it comes down to whether or not he is guaranteed by enough teams that he'll be picked in the 1st Round. I think it helps him to be picked in the bottom third of the first round this year versus maybe making the lottery next year. Better coaching, better teammates, better organization will help him more than being a higher pick next year.

But the key is 100% being a first round pick. If he falls into the second round, it would the be the worst of both worlds. He'd likely be with a bad franchise and not have a long term contract.

This isn't a done deal yet.
 
JuiceCrewAllStar said:
I feel like there are definitely more examples of guys going from late first round to undrafted or second round by staying than guys who actually improve their stock.
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I looked at mock drafts from March 2013-2015 and found 19 non-senior forwards projected to go in the bottom half of the first round.

5 came back and improved their stock (Poeltl, Cauley-Stein, Dekker, McDermott, Payne)

1 came back and dropped into second round (Harrell)

2 came back and eventually went undrafted (Poythress, Mcadoo)

5 stayed in and went higher than projected (Lyles, Hollis-Jefferson, Justin Anderson, Warren, Olynyk)

2 stayed in and went lower than projected but still first round (Portis, Kyle Anderson)

2 stayed in and dropped to the second round (Grant, Thomas)

2 stayed in and went undrafted (Wood, Alexander)
 
RChildress107 said:
I looked at mock drafts from March 2013-2015 and found 19 non-senior forwards projected to go in the bottom half of the first round.

5 came back and improved their stock (Poeltl, Cauley-Stein, Dekker, McDermott, Payne)

1 came back and dropped into second round (Harrell)

2 came back and eventually went undrafted (Poythress, Mcadoo)

5 stayed in and went higher than projected (Lyles, Hollis-Jefferson, Justin Anderson, Warren, Olynyk)

2 stayed in and went lower than projected but still first round (Portis, Kyle Anderson)

2 stayed in and dropped to the second round (Grant, Thomas)

2 stayed in and went undrafted (Wood, Alexander)
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Harrell is actually doing quite well.
 
RChildress107 said:
I looked at mock drafts from March 2013-2015 and found 19 non-senior forwards projected to go in the bottom half of the first round.

5 came back and improved their stock (Poeltl, Cauley-Stein, Dekker, McDermott, Payne)

1 came back and dropped into second round (Harrell)

2 came back and eventually went undrafted (Poythress, Mcadoo)

5 stayed in and went higher than projected (Lyles, Hollis-Jefferson, Justin Anderson, Warren, Olynyk)

2 stayed in and went lower than projected but still first round (Portis, Kyle Anderson)

2 stayed in and dropped to the second round (Grant, Thomas)

2 stayed in and went undrafted (Wood, Alexander)
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It doesn't seem like it's worth it.

MichDeac25 said:
Harrell is actually doing quite well.
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That's a bargain of a contract for a guy who was a projected lottery pick the year before.
 
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RChildress107 said:
Half of the 8 who stayed jumped at least 10 spots.

And in that admittedly small sample size staying didn't really hurt your chances of getting guaranteed money.
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You're combining so many different factors here, so let's simplify. Let's ditch the players who aren't in Collins's predicament (e.g., touted freshmen who left after year two and small forwards of any status, primarily).

How many junior PF/C prospects boosted their draft stock by returning to college after their sophomore seasons? To determine how prospects boosted their draft stock, you can use the Mock Draft History tool, here.

WCS is an example of a success (projected borderline top-10 as a sophomore to #6 as a junior); Harrell (projected borderline-lotto as a sophomore to #32 as a junior) is an example of a failure. You'll need to go back a few years to get a decent sample size, but I'm guessing that the risk will not be one worth taking.
 
Strickland33 said:
You're combining so many different factors here, so let's simplify. Let's ditch the players who aren't in Collins's predicament (e.g., touted freshmen who left after year two and small forwards of any status, primarily).

How many junior PF/C prospects boosted their draft stock by returning to college after their sophomore seasons? To determine how prospects boosted their draft stock, you can use the Mock Draft History tool, here.

WCS is an example of a success (projected borderline top-10 as a sophomore to #6 as a junior); Harrell (projected borderline-lotto as a sophomore to #32 as a junior) is an example of a failure. You'll need to go back a few years to get a decent sample size, but I'm guessing that the risk will not be one worth taking.
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Harrell is a 6'8 PF who is doing well in the NBA. He's looking to get a 2nd contract. A real failure would be someone whose stock fell and then also fell out of the league after their rookie deal.
 
Strickland33 said:
You're combining so many different factors here, so let's simplify. Let's ditch the players who aren't in Collins's predicament (e.g., touted freshmen who left after year two and small forwards of any status, primarily).

How many junior PF/C prospects boosted their draft stock by returning to college after their sophomore seasons? To determine how prospects boosted their draft stock, you can use the Mock Draft History tool, here.

WCS is an example of a success (projected borderline top-10 as a sophomore to #6 as a junior); Harrell (projected borderline-lotto as a sophomore to #32 as a junior) is an example of a failure. You'll need to go back a few years to get a decent sample size, but I'm guessing that the risk will not be one worth taking.
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Don't disagree with larger point regarding it being likely more risky to return to school, but the class year seems less relevant than the age. Collins as a sophomore is younger than some of the highly-touted frosh in this year's class and would guess that NBA crowd cares more about birth date than class year.
 
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