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John Collins is #2 in KP's All-ACC Ratings

RChildress107 said:
Wasn't working on my phone. Not sure how accurate that is since draft express starts their mocks over a year and a half out. So the data point on 4/30/14 could be referring to either the 2014 or 2015 mock draft.
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They certainly could, but it serves as a decent proxy for what the prospect's draft ceiling projection was when they were first a legitimate prospect, no?
 
RChildress107 said:
I looked at mock drafts from March 2013-2015 and found 19 non-senior forwards projected to go in the bottom half of the first round.

5 came back and improved their stock (Poeltl, Cauley-Stein, Dekker, McDermott, Payne)

1 came back and dropped into second round (Harrell)

2 came back and eventually went undrafted (Poythress, Mcadoo)

5 stayed in and went higher than projected (Lyles, Hollis-Jefferson, Justin Anderson, Warren, Olynyk)

2 stayed in and went lower than projected but still first round (Portis, Kyle Anderson)

2 stayed in and dropped to the second round (Grant, Thomas)

2 stayed in and went undrafted (Wood, Alexander)
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Certainly doesn't seem worth it. 10 improved their stock (a couple of which I don't think are correct....example Justin Anderson wasn't a 1st round NBA prospect after his freshman year @ UVA) and 9 dropped. And 4 of those didn't even get drafted. Why would anyone take that gamble?

If it is an efficient market (which is probably is decently efficient) a player would have a 50% chance of rising or 50% chance of falling by returning for a year.
 
FckVwls said:
Certainly doesn't seem worth it. 10 improved their stock (a couple of which I don't think are correct....example Justin Anderson wasn't a 1st round NBA prospect after his freshman year @ UVA) and 9 dropped. And 4 of those didn't even get drafted. Why would anyone take that gamble?

If it is an efficient market (which is probably is decently efficient) a player would have a 50% chance of rising or 50% chance of falling by returning for a year.
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This is all likely true and, if you are solidly projected in the first round the safe bet is to come out. However, all of these statistics are only helpful in the abstract. Each kid is different and each situation has its own unique factors to consider. In Collins' case you have a kid who was not that highly rated or known coming out of HS and who is very young for his grade. This year his performance and his trajectory has taken him from nowhere to the bottom half of the first round. If he still projects in the bottom half after the season, the question is whether his trajectory will continue and move him well up into the lottery next year. Or, has he pretty much fulfilled his potential and next year would just serve to expose his lack of room for further improvement?

I don't think any of us can really know the answer to that. He and his coaches and expert scouts can figure that out during this year and any workouts he has after the season. Ultimately it will come down to his confidence in his own work ethic and ability to expand his game.
 
FckVwls said:
If it is an efficient market (which is probably is decently efficient) a player would have a 50% chance of rising or 50% chance of falling by returning for a year.
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Does that take into account injury risk?
 
Most guys who come back will get some insurance of some sort to protect them if injury causes them to slide.

Doesn't answer your question but it does remove some of the risk.
 
i've always been curious who underwrites those kinds of policies
 
CharlotteDeac1 said:
http://fansided.com/2017/02/10/wake-forest-john-collins-nba-draft-2017/
Good analysis for anyone who has a few minutes to read through it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Very good analysis. Hopefully John comes back to work on his shot, passing, pick and roll ability, and defensive awareness, which (as the article states) are all relative weaknesses. It will be hard to turn down the money, but maybe he'd rather improve these aspects of his game as "the man" at Wake rather than riding the NBA pine. We can only hope he also cares about accomplishing team goals.

He seems like a great kid, and I'm sure will take all the advice he can get, especially from DM.
 
Decent analysis on the video clips, but at some point it ceases to be "fills up a role on offense that someone has to fill in order to light up advanced stats" and becomes "regardless of how he gets it done, this guy flat out gets it done against top competition." Will be interesting to see when, and if, the former becomes the latter - if the latter isn't just already true.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Decent analysis on the video clips, but at some point it ceases to be "fills up a role on offense that someone has to fill in order to light up advanced stats" and becomes "regardless of how he gets it done, this guy flat out gets it done against top competition." Will be interesting to see when, and if, the former becomes the latter - if the latter isn't just already true.
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What?
 
Sorry if that was confusing: I don't buy the "he just looks good on advanced stats but lacks basic skills to succeed at the NBA level" argument.
 
Wakeforest22890 said:
Sorry if that was confusing: I don't buy the "he just looks good on advanced stats but lacks basic skills to succeed at the NBA level" argument.
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I didn't read it that way at all. The way I understood the analysis, the ultimate conclusion that he reached was that Collins does a lot of things well but does a few things (passing out of the post, face-up offense, and pick-and-roll) at a substandard level for an NBA post player
 
WFUtoUSC said:
I didn't read it that way at all. The way I understood the analysis, the ultimate conclusion that he reached was that Collins does a lot of things well but does a few things (passing out of the post, face-up offense, and pick-and-roll) at a substandard level for an NBA post player
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Maybe I read it too critically rather than viewing it as you did.

"At this point, Collins is an anomaly. He’s a player who has great advanced stats that have shown to translate to the next level. But he also has a red flag-filled highlight reel, full of black hole-level offense and inconsistent effort and awareness on defense. Which is more trustworthy? That’s the decision for NBA teams to make, especially if he’s truly getting buzz as a first-rounder."
 
I think one element that explains a lot of the #eyetest concerns is the fouling problem. On both ends, he's a little overly cautious trying to stay out of foul trouble. It makes him soft defensively at times and tentative offensively.
 
One thing I found extremely bunk about that analysis were concerns about his hands. He showed one clip of him failing to make a tough catch on the move and said it happens often. I've watched every game and don't think so. Major reason he's an elite rebounder are his excellent hands.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
One thing I found extremely bunk about that analysis were concerns about his hands. He showed one clip of him failing to make a tough catch on the move and said it happens often. I've watched every game and don't think so. Major reason he's an elite rebounder are his excellent hands.
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Fansided is my go-to source for NBA Draft analysis.
 
Fuck Your Couch said:
One thing I found extremely bunk about that analysis were concerns about his hands. He showed one clip of him failing to make a tough catch on the move and said it happens often. I've watched every game and don't think so. Major reason he's an elite rebounder are his excellent hands.
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Agreed, also there are several instances I can think of from the last three games alone where he caught the ball, on the move (while running back up court behind the defense), and went up immediately with it for an easy bucket.
 
Yeah Collins has great hands. As noted above his ability to catch tough passes and finish quickly while on a dead sprint is really impressive.
 
Strickland33 said:
Fansided is my go-to source for NBA Draft analysis.
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It was a nice article but it amounted to saying Collins is very productive but has a lot of work to do to be an NBA starter. Which is not unusual for where he's projected. If he wasn't productive or had fewer holes in his game, he'd be an easy lottery pick.
 
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