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2015 Maui Invitational: Hudson & Watson to Play in 3rd Place Game v. UCLA 7:30 ESPN2

DeacsATS said:
I'd be ok with most any result other than a scenario where we drop the 1st 2 games and have to play Chaminade on Wednesday in an absolutely meaningless game w/ no upside.
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Yeah, we don't want to be position for another Alaska-Anchorage to happen.
 
DeacsATS said:
I don't see why not. Could just as easily get blown out, too.

It's kind of weird... The way I look at it, our best chance of picking up 2 wins in this thing is probably to lose to IU, then beat St. John's and (potentially) UNLV.

If we beat IU, then we have Vandy. If we lose that one, we get loser of KU/(UCLA/UNLV winner).
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Someone with Kenpom might have to pull up our chances against each team, but just an initial estimate and assuming the favorites win every game will produce the following:

If we lost to IU, we would most likely play St. Johns (id guess we'd have a 67% chance of winning this game) and then UNLV (probably a toss-up, say 50% chance of winning) or Chaminade (for simplification I'll say he have a 100% chance of winning, if you lower it to the true percentage of approx. 95%, it wouldnt change our final expected value too much)

If we upset IU, assuming we would play Vandy in the semis, and then KU in the finals or UCLA in the third place game, with the following: P(beating Vandy) = 20%, P(beating UCLA=30%), P(beating Kansas 10%).

Given these assumptions, if we LOSE to Indiana we can expect 1.33 wins with a 33% chance of winning two games. If we Beat Indiana, our expected wins is 1.46 with a 44% chance of winning 2 or 3 games.
If we lose to IU, our remaining games become much more winnable, but not enough to make up for the game we already lost (IU).

Of course all of these could completely change depending on if Hudson plays/doesnt play. I've also assumed the favorite wins every other game, which is incorrect. Working on a new model now with every game included.

Which of my winning percentages seem too high? Too low?
 
liveanddiedeac said:
We got any chance against the Hosers this evening?
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IU's primary weaknesses from my perspective are turnovers and an overreliance on the 3. Crean has IU playing extremely fast and the result at times is unforced turnovers which lead to easy buckets for the opponent. If you play sound defense, take away the 3 point line, and avoid turning it over, IU becomes vulnerable. The other side of all of this is that IU is very dangerous in transition, has a number of players that shoot the 3 at a high rate, and unlike last year, has a offensive post presence in freshman Thomas Bryant who dominated Creighton's bigs last week.
 
BTB said:
IU's primary weaknesses from my perspective are turnovers and an overreliance on the 3. Crean has IU playing extremely fast and the result at times is unforced turnovers which lead to easy buckets for the opponent. If you play sound defense, take away the 3 point line, and avoid turning it over, IU becomes vulnerable. The other side of all of this is that IU is very dangerous in transition, has a number of players that shoot the 3 at a high rate, and unlike last year, has a offensive post presence in freshman Thomas Bryant who dominated Creighton's bigs last week.
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So you're saying there's no chance....:thumbsup:
 
Like any team that plays fast, if you force IU into a half court game that limits possessions and heightens the need to value the ball, IU is far less dangerous offensively. Even Crean's best IU team that won the B1G championship with Cody Zeller and Oladipo, lost twice to a good but not great Wisconsin team.
 
BTB said:
Like any team that plays fast, if you force IU into a half court game that limits possessions and heightens the need to value the ball, IU is far less dangerous offensively. Even Crean's best IU team that won the B1G championship with Cody Zeller and Oladipo, lost twice to a good but not great Wisconsin team.
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I hope we don't try this. We play at a faster pace than IU (both this year and last) and our offense is by far our strength so far this year. I'd rather see us play to our strengths and hope that we get hot while IU makes mistakes than pack it in and watch IU make 15 open threes as they shred apart what passes for our half-court defense.
 
They shoot the ball well from beyond the arc and like to run. We are bad at defense and we like to run too. There will be a lot of possessions not not a lot of defense being played on our part. I'm guessing they may throw some zone at us and force us to shoot the ball. I hope pounding the ball inside is in our gameplay for tonight. Getting them into foul trouble and getting easy baskets is our only chance to outscore them and win the game.
 
Apologies if this has already been addressed. Is CMM definitely not playing during this tournament or is there a chance he might be cleared to go?
 
demondeacfreak said:
Apologies if this has already been addressed. Is CMM definitely not playing during this tournament or is there a chance he might be cleared to go?
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Haven't seen anything. I think CMM is doubtful. No word on Hudson or Watson that I have seen, either.
 
I think Devin is going to have a monster game as Bryant is nowhere near ready to guard him. Our only hope at pulling the upset off IMO is that the great 3 point shooting of IU is not as effective today due to it being their first game away from home. I expect Wake to crash the glass & get many easy 2nd chance points. It will be very high scoring which I predict Wake covers, but loses 87-81.
 
PhonsoINT said:
According to Manning....

CMM ruled out 'as of right now' for Maui.
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At least it sounds like he might be close. I'd rather them use caution and let him be a spectator in Maui if there is any doubt though.
 
Over/Under of 167.5...

That is very high. I mean, I'm not saying it is wrong... I'm just saying it is very high for a college basketball over/under.
 
DeacsATS said:
Over/Under of 167.5...

That is very high. I mean, I'm not saying it is wrong... I'm just saying it is very high for a college basketball over/under.
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They are faster than we are and have the 3rd best offense in the country. If we gave up 91 to Richmond then it is not out of the realm of possibilities at all that we could see them do that/hang 100 on us.

I would guess 90-80 is a good scoring range.
 
Kenpom sayeth 89-79 (IU).

I have no idea how many points we'll score, but IU probably good for 90+.
 
Does our game start at the later of 5:00 or 30 minutes after game1 ends or just 30 minutes after game1 ends?
 
Bourrc9 said:
Does our game start at the later of 5:00 or 30 minutes after game1 ends or just 30 minutes after game1 ends?
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Thirty minutes after game one ends is my understanding but I would imagine they would push until 5 if game one ends early (before 4:30)
 
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