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2023-24 Wake Forest Basketball Season - 21-14 (11-9) - KP#29 / NET#43

We are doing a lot of things well that will make it hard to keep us off the bubble: winning at home, losses by a small margin, no Q3/Q4 bad losses.

Our metrics are already in a good position because of this. Something that hasn't been discussed much is our close losses. This is a characteristic we haven't seen in a Wake team since '09. They didn't have a double-digit loss until February 4. We have yet to have one.

I am much more concerned about a ND/Louisville/GT implosion than having enough good wins. 13 or even 12 ACC wins with good metrics and no bad losses is difficult to keep out.
 
I think Reid is going to give Flip a lot of trouble. I feel more confident about winning at Cameron than beating Carolina.
 
Our guard play is good enough that I think we have a decent counter-punch to Davis. I am surprised Ryan is getting so much run for them, he has looked bad in the stretches I have seen him play and shooting <30% from 3. Reid is at the least a decent presence against Bacot. Ingram completely dominated the boards against State, and I am not sure we really have anyone that can deal with him effectively, think that is a really tough matchup for Carr.

Filipowski is a great passer and more dynamic player than the front court of Carolina, imo. Mitchell, at times, has looked dominant. Proctor hasn't really shown up yet. This looks like an up-and-down team that has a lot of talent. If they turn on the gas in the second-half, they could be the team to beat. I am not a believer in Scheyer, so we may never see that get realized.

I think Duke could be the tougher team to play as the season goes on. Carolina is obviously very good, and I think we are seeing their best play right now. I don't think they have another gear, which Duke probably does. Would have been a great season to play both at home.
 
PaddyWF said:
We are doing a lot of things well that will make it hard to keep us off the bubble: winning at home, losses by a small margin, no Q3/Q4 bad losses.

Our metrics are already in a good position because of this. Something that hasn't been discussed much is our close losses. This is a characteristic we haven't seen in a Wake team since '09. They didn't have a double-digit loss until February 4. We have yet to have one.

I am much more concerned about a ND/Louisville/GT implosion than having enough good wins. 13 or even 12 ACC wins with good metrics and no bad losses is difficult to keep out.
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12 wins makes this team finish the season’s final 15 games at 8-7. The metrics won’t be good if that is reality.
 
Justly or not, Reid is going to foul out in 10 minutes against Bacot. The big problem with winning the ACCT is that it seems very unlikely that Duke and UNC will be on the same side of the bracket. I won't believe we can beat both until after we get a win against one of them.
 
daaberry said:
12 wins makes this team finish the season’s final 15 games at 8-7. The metrics won’t be good if that is reality.
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If we won the rest of our home games, and beat ND on the road - we have no "bad" losses, or maybe 1 with GT. They are right on the cutoff line of Q2/Q3. And if those were all close losses, then I don't see how our metrics would be bad. And if we crush our home opponents, then the metrics may be quite good. That would be an 10-0 home/2-8 road split.

I don't think that is probable, but if we did have that resume, that's hard to kick off the bubble. It would be better or similar to State's resume last season, and they were safely in.

I do think we need 14 wins to be safely in with no discussion. 12 is unlikely but there are scenarios where it could work. It's a longshot kind of resume, my point was to highlight how much room no bad losses can buy you.
 
redwing42 said:
Justly or not, Reid is going to foul out in 10 minutes against Bacot. The big problem with winning the ACCT is that it seems very unlikely that Duke and UNC will be on the same side of the bracket. I won't believe we can beat both until after we get a win against one of them.
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Maybe, maybe not. It's going to depend on how close the zebras call the game. Burns gave Bacot a fit during their match up because the refs let them beat and bang. Reid is more than capable of doing the same, if he's allowed to. I was very encouraged by Reid's defensive performance yesterday. He showed that he can play D without getting himself in trouble with the cheap fouls
 
redwing42 said:
Justly or not, Reid is going to foul out in 10 minutes against Bacot. The big problem with winning the ACCT is that it seems very unlikely that Duke and UNC will be on the same side of the bracket. I won't believe we can beat both until after we get a win against one of them.
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Bacot gonna be motivated to not lose his 3rd consecutive ACC POY to a Wake player
 
The schedule the rest of the way is favorable but the last few years have shown that we don't have a lot of room for error in league play. The team needs to be treating every last game like a must-win if they want to dance. Winning at State will be tough but we need to get it done. Let's not leave it in the committee's hands. Do not like our chances if on the bubble given the ACC's rep. Don't see us winning @UNC or @Duke.
 
SkyDivingDeacon said:
I don’t know why you guys are worried. Doesn’t the ACCT champion get an automatic bid?
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That sounds awesome of course but just getting to semi-final Friday for once would feel like a huge victory. We would definitely be facing either UNC/Duke in a semi as I can’t see them not being 1-2.
 
I'm not concerning myself with hypotheticals or what if's. This appears to be the best group of starters Wake has put on the floor in many years. Friedrichsen has been very good off the bench. If one of Keller, Marion or Marsh can be good off the bench each game, depth at the four and five is available. If Ituka or Monsanto can provide some minutes at the wing, the team will have the depth it now lacks to give Hildreth and Sallis a few minutes more rest. It appears that Carr and Reid could provide the quality of play up front that the guards have demonstrated all season. I hope to enjoy each game when it is played and that this season will be better than most of us could imagine.
 
BlackjackMc said:
I'm not concerning myself with hypotheticals or what if's. This appears to be the best group of starters Wake has put on the floor in many years. Friedrichsen has been very good off the bench. If one of Keller, Marion or Marsh can be good off the bench each game, depth at the four and five is available. If Ituka or Monsanto can provide some minutes at the wing, the team will have the depth it now lacks to give Hildreth and Sallis a few minutes more rest. It appears that Carr and Reid could provide the quality of play up front that the guards have demonstrated all season. I hope to enjoy each game when it is played and that this season will be better than most of us could imagine.
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I wonder if Monsanto can be a small ball 4 for us off the bench. He’s probably the 2nd best rebounder on our squad and I’d rather him take those minutes than MMM in tight matchups.
 
Been saying that for weeks. It gives the roster much more flexibility. Forbes can play Reid or Carr at the 5 depending on matchups and foul trouble. He can take some of Keller's crunchtime minutes. He would take less time from Parker.

Overall, Monsanto can play 15-20 minutes at the 3 and 4 by taking 1-3 minutes each from the rest of the rotation.
 
Maybe. He skies for a few so it looks more impressive, a bit like Sallis this year. But it doesn’t show up in his rebounding numbers.

He was outrebounded last year by marsh, Carr, Klintman, Bradford, and Hildreth (on a % of rebounds grabbed basis). Nearly non-existent on the offensive glass.

His overall percentage last year is behind Reid, Marsh, Carr, Keller, and Marion this year.

So I wonder if we wouldn’t struggle to rebound with him at the 4. The offset is we already do with Marion and to a lesser extent Keller at the 4, and we wouldn’t see the same drop off on offense that we see when they’re playing, so if the defense holds up maybe it’s workable, especially with Reid at the 5.
 
inspectah_ said:
The schedule the rest of the way is favorable but the last few years have shown that we don't have a lot of room for error in league play. The team needs to be treating every last game like a must-win if they want to dance. Winning at State will be tough but we need to get it done. Let's not leave it in the committee's hands. Do not like our chances if on the bubble given the ACC's rep. Don't see us winning @UNC or @Duke.
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I think I actually think the opposite on the schedule. It's been pretty proven that you'd much rather play a bunch of good teams and go .500 than have what used to be considered favorable, lesser opponents, and go .800 or so. I'd rather play big dogs every night.
 
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