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2024 Races (Non-president)

PhDeac said:
Yeah. Politics are heavily partisan but people still vote for individuals.
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Probably why reasonable-ass Roy Cooper won twice against despised McCory and crazy Forrest when Trump was on the ballot. Mark Robinson won last time, yeah, but hopefully he loses directly to reasonable-ass Josh Stein. There's gonna be a ton of national focus on the race due to how crazy Robinson is.
 
Big MD Dem primary win for Angela Alsobrooks over Total Wine founder Trone (54.0 to 41.9) to set up a huge race against Larry Hogan.
www.msnbc.com

Angela Alsobrooks' primary win for Maryland Senate seat set polling data on fire

Despite being significantly outspent, Alsobrooks defeated her Democratic primary opponent by a wide margin. There are lessons here.
www.msnbc.com www.msnbc.com

Money isn’t everything​

Trone, the billionaire founder of the retail chain Total Wine, plunged more than $60 million of his own fortune into his campaign, far outspending Alsobrooks. Trone had even suggested that his deep pockets would be a boon for Democrats were he the nominee, because it would mean they could spend money on key races in other states. But money isn’t everything, and Trone has shown that even well-heeled campaigns can falter when their candidate lacks a coherent case to make to voters. It also helped that high-profile Maryland Democrats teamed up like the Avengers to boost Alsobrooks.
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The only polls that matter are the ones on Election Day​

No major poll leading into Tuesday’s primary race predicted Alsobrooks’ convincing margin of victory. Multiple polls showed the race in a dead heat, and a few even had Trone with a lead (which seemed to cause a lot of liberal hand-wringing). But the results show concerns about Trone-mentum were overblown. Poll numbers have always had the power to distort public perception of outcomes, and Maryland’s Democratic Senate primary showed again how problematic data can be in analysts' attempts to gauge voter preferences. Alsobrooks’ primary win also affirmed an old political adage: The only polls that matter are the ones that open on Election Day.
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Alsobrooks against Hogan is going to be a tough race. Maryland is very blue, almost 2:1. Hogan is well liked in Maryland as former governor. He is one of the very few vocal anti-Trump Republicans.

It would be ironic if an anti-Trump republican flipped the Senate so the MAGA crowd can frustrate Biden, should he be re-elected, or allow the continued court packing should Tump win.
 
I under why people think that. But I also don’t see MD voting for the Republican who would stop Dems from maintaining a majority under Biden. Hogan has a tough task convincing people he will stand up to Republicans on the Trump agenda or a national abortion ban.
 
PhDeac said:
I under why people think that. But I also don’t see MD voting for the Republican who would stop Dems from maintaining a majority under Biden. Hogan has a tough task convincing people he will stand up to Republicans on the Trump agenda or a national abortion ban.
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Agreed. Democrats are often terrible at messaging and PR, but if she keeps hitting really hard on what you said - that no matter how much Hogan says he's not a Trump stooge and won't vote for things like a national abortion ban that electing him will make it much easier for Republicans to do just that - then I think in a blue state like Maryland that message might well be just what she needs to win.
 
The best case scenario is Hogan is a Romney, Murkowski, or Collins.
 
Think Hogan will win in Maryland. He is as popular as a Republican can be in a super-strong blue state.

Hogan has not hesitated to take positions adverse to Trump. Also, if it is his vote that tips the Senate in the Republican's favor, he will use his spotlight to show his independence. Hogan seriously considered running against Trump for President in this cycle. He hopes to steer the party away from its devotion to Herr Trump. Hogan retains presidential asprirations.
 
Dems are already losing Manchin’s seat, and Hogan could go either way. Any chances of a Dem pickup anywhere?
 
Pilchard said:
Think Hogan will win in Maryland. He is as popular as a Republican can be in a super-strong blue state.

Hogan has not hesitated to take positions adverse to Trump. Also, if it is his vote that tips the Senate in the Republican's favor, he will use his spotlight to show his independence. Hogan seriously considered running against Trump for President in this cycle. He hopes to steer the party away from its devotion to Herr Trump. Hogan retains presidential asprirations.
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Being the Joe Manchin of the Republican party would almost certainly not help Hogan with his presidential aspirations. I think when it came down to it, he'd vote along party lines if his vote is the one that tips the Senate to Republicans.
 
Depends on the issue, as it should. Unlike many if not all of those currently serving, Hogan has a conscience.
 
Pilchard said:
Depends on the issue, as it should. Unlike many if not all of those currently serving, Hogan has a conscience.
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I feel pretty confident in saying that if Hogan is the lone one that prevents a national abortion ban as a Republican Senator, he will not be winning a Republican presidential primary.
 
The best changes for a Dem pickup are FL and TX. So not good. This could be a blue wave and the Dems could still lose the senate just by losing WV and MO.

Seems like Dems are playing defense and preparing for the 2026 map to get another shot at NC and TX. I can’t even tell you much about the Dems running to beat Scott in FL.
 
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