• Welcome to OGBoards 10.0, keep in mind that we will be making LOTS of changes to smooth out the experience here and make it as close as possible functionally to the old software, but feel free to drop suggestions or requests in the Tech Support subforum!

Bowl projections

Looking like the ACC might not fill all of its bowl slots.

UVA already has 7 losses and counting.
Notre Dame who participates in the ACC rotation has 6 losses, and will be a dog in two of their final 3 (Army, VT @ USC)

Duke has six and will likely lose at least one more (UNC, @Pitt, @ Miami)
State has five losses (that BC loss killed them), and could lose at least two more (@ Cuse, Miami, @ UNC)
Cuse has five losses, and also could lose two more (State, @ FSU and @ Pitt). Almost a lock that the loser of the State/Cuse game will have 7 losses.
BC has five losses and will be a dog in two of their final 3 (@FSU, UCONN @ WF - BC will likely be playing for bowl eligibility against us as the wheels have come off UCONN's program)
GT has five losses and will be a dog in two of the their final 3 (@VT, UVA. @UGA)

Also, the ACC now looks like it has the following tiers when the season ends:

Clemson
L'ville

---

VT
UNC
FSU

----

Of the next group, WF is only one that already has 6 wins; so, there will be a cluster of teams with 6 or 7 wins, and not a lot to distinguish them from the other. Will be interesting to see how the bowls divvy up those teams.

---

BC
UVA
Whomever else doesn't get to six wins.
 
The floor right now is Annapolis if Clemson or Louisville makes the CFP.

We need to be pulling the hardest against BC, Cuse, and N.C. State.

Georgia Tech will probably not go to El Paso again since they have been twice in five years. That means El Paso would be our floor because Annapolis will be GT.
 
Went to the ACC website. Trying to figure all this out can be confusing, but as it stands now, 6 ACC teams are bowl eligible: Clemson, Louisville, Wake Forest, FSU, UNC, Virginia Tech. 3 teams have a chance to be bowl eligible this week with Miami the most likely (@Virginia). Georgia Tech becomes bowl eligible with a win @Virginia Tech and Pitt with a win @ Clemson. Virginia is the only team not bowl eligible and could be joined by Duke this week.

So after this weekend, it is likely that 7 teams are bowl eligible and 5 will still have a chance (If Duke loses):

Syracuse (4-5): Plays NC State in a big game for both teams, then FSU and @Pitt. Probably finishes 4-8.
NC State (4-5): Plays @ Syracuse, Miami and @ UNC. Might finish 5-7 unless they upset Miami or UNC.
Boston College (4-5): @FSU, UConn and @ Wake Forest to finish. Decent chance they have to beat Wake Forest to be bowl eligible to get to 6-6.
Pitt (5-4): @Clemson, Duke, Syracuse left -- Should be 7-5
Miami (5-4): @Virginia, @ NC State and Duke left --Could be 8-4/7-5
Georgia Tech (5-4):mad:Virginia Tech, Virginia and Georgia -- I think they get 1 from Virginia or Georgia and finish 6-6.
Duke (3-6): Play UNC Thursday, @ Pitt, @ Miami -- Likely done
Notre Dame (3-6): Army, Virginia Tech, @USC - Have no idea what they will do but would put them in the NC State category.

If the odds play out, it looks like Miami, Georgia Tech, Pitt will join the list and that would be 9 teams with BC, NC State, and Notre Dame being possibilities to get to 12. The more teams who aren't bowl eligible the better for Wake Forest and also if Louisville and Clemson get in the playoff.

ACC Bowls

College Football Playoff
Orange Bowl - If the ACC Champion is not in the playoff, they go to the Orange Bowl.
Cotton Bowl - If Louisville is not chosen, they could go to a New Years Six bowl (1 at large spot). If you take today and say Clemson, Washington, Alabama and Michigan/Ohio State are in, Louisville would battle the Michigan/Ohio State loser for that spot. Clearly better for Wake Forest if it was Ohio State with 2 losses, than Michigan with one. This also assumes Louisville wins out.
Citrus Bowl - ACC/Big 10 vs SEC - This is where it gets weird. In a year that the Orange Bowl doesn't host the Semi Finals of the playoffs (this year), and the opponent in the Orange Bowl is from the Big 10 (this year, the Orange Bowl gets the highest ranked team from the SEC/Big 10/Notre Dame - Could be Ohio State or Michigan if Louisville goes to the Cotton Bowl), the ACC then gets a team to go to the Citrus Bowl before the Russell Athletic Bowl picks.

Russell Athletic Bowl - ACC vs Big 12 -- Picks first this year after all that mess above is taken care of. The pick rotates with other Tier One bowls.

Tier One ACC Bowls -- Free for all with all having equal selection status.
Belk Bowl - ACC vs SEC -
Sun Bowl - ACC vs Pac 12
Pinstripe Bowl - ACC vs Big 10
Music City Bowl - ACC/Big 10 vs SEC or TaxSlayer Bowl - ACC/Big 10/SEC

Tier Two ACC Bowls -- Free for all with whatever is left.
Military Bowl - ACC vs AAC
Indipendence Bowl - ACC vs SEC
Quick Lane Bowl - ACC vs Big 10
St. Petersburg Bowl - ACC vsAAC
Birmingham Bowl (Conditional if SEC/AAC can't fill)

The bad news is when a bunch of teams are at 6 or 7 wins and there is no longer a 1 win rule. It only applies to Notre Dame who is eligible for every bowl from the Citrus Bowl on down. That really isn't a factor this year as Notre Dame will have to get to 6-6 to get to a bowl.

Best case for Wake is Clemson to the playoff and Louisville to the playoff and then 7 teams battle for 5 good Tier 1 Bowls including Orlando. It would also be good if Clemson made the playoff and Louisville went to the Orange and played Ohio State opening up the Citrus Bowl for UNC/Virginia Tech or Louisville goes to the Cotton. Either way, the top 2 teams in the ACC going to other bowls opens up spots for Wake Forest.

Worst case is Clemson and Louisville don't make the playoff and bumps it all down.

I still think we get shipped out to El Paso if we get a Tier 1 Chance. Duke and Georgia Tech, two teams who don't travel well got the same treatment. Charlotte, Nashville, New York and Orlando seem like long shots when you are possibly competing with UNC, FSU, Virginia Tech and Miami for those Tier 1 spots. We would be competing with Pitt and Georgia Tech for that spot. If we go to Tier 2, who knows.

With all that, root for Clemson and Louisville to win out, Notre Dame, Duke, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Boston College and NC State to all lose and good things happen.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
The floor right now is Annapolis if Clemson or Louisville makes the CFP.

We need to be pulling the hardest against BC, Cuse, and N.C. State.

Georgia Tech will probably not go to El Paso again since they have been twice in five years. That means El Paso would be our floor because Annapolis will be GT.
Click to expand...

Only things I'd say to this are 1) GT could wind up somewhere besides El Paso and in the Annapolis, and perhaps more pressingly:

2) Are we sure the Military Bowl has first pick between themselves, Detroit and Shreveport? I hope so as it would be an imminently easier to attend game than the others for basically everyone, but I haven't seen anything saying that definitively. Granted, I haven't looked that hard
 
Last edited:
That's why we play the games. I'm just enjoying planning 6 different trips to the Bowl games.
 
would attend Nashville or Charlotte, likely Annapolis. Maybe NYC, but doubtful. would go to Shreveport if not the day after Christmas since I have family there.
 
J'ville great analysis.

Is the Orange Bowl obligated to take an ACC team if the Conference Champ makes the playoff? Also, if the Cotton Bowl has a choice between two loss tOSU or one L'ville, would expect the Cotton Bowl to tOSU.
 
The way I read it, the Orange Boal must take the highest ranked ACC team if the Champion goes to the playoff and in the old system, a 2 loss Ohio State with their crowd support would definitely go in front of Louisville, but if Louisville is 5th in the rankings (big if), I would think they would have a really good shot at the Cotton Bowl.
 
DEACS76 said:
I'm hoping for NYC vs Iowa. Yankee stadium, Time Square, that would be pretty cool. I hope the next two games won't knock us down the list too far. In 1974, we played #1 Oklahoma and #2 Penn St on consecutive weeks and lost by a combined 118-0. Both L'ville and Clemson will be going for style points to Impress the committee.
Click to expand...

63-0 and 55-0.
Unfortunately, I remember it well.
We also made the cover of SI following the OU game. Their halfback (Joe Washington) got his helmet torn off at the line of scrimmage ........and then ran about 50 yds, hatless, for a TD. This was the cover shot.
 
wsc8521s said:
The Orange Bowl must take an ACC team
Click to expand...

Yeah, there is very little chance that an ACC team ends up in the Cotton Bowl, and it definitely wouldn't be Louisville (they are CFP bound at 11-1 with some help, or will be in the Orange Bowl if they can't sneak into the playoff, assuming Clemson wins the ACC Championship Game).
 
One more thing to add. The Taxslayer (Gator Bowl) has to take 3 ACC teams over its 6 year contract. They did not take an ACC team in year one or two, so you would think they would lean that way this year.
 
JacksonvilleDeac said:
One more thing to add. The Taxslayer (Gator Bowl) has to take 3 ACC teams over its 6 year contract. They did not take an ACC team in year one or two, so you would think they would lean that way this year.
Click to expand...

100% chance they would dodge Wake this year and either take their chances over the next three that they won't get stuck with us OR find a way to wiggle out of the contract.
 
Here's a list of Bowl Eligible P-5 schools (excluding Wake): Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin, Colorado, Stanford, USC, Utah, Washington, Washington State, Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M.

It's also a list of schools that would be picked ahead of Wake if there was ever a picking decision.
 
JacksonvilleDeac said:
One more thing to add. The Taxslayer (Gator Bowl) has to take 3 ACC teams over its 6 year contract. They did not take an ACC team in year one or two, so you would think they would lean that way this year.
Click to expand...

Good info. But I still think they'd roll the dice rather than take us.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top