Went to the ACC website. Trying to figure all this out can be confusing, but as it stands now, 6 ACC teams are bowl eligible: Clemson, Louisville, Wake Forest, FSU, UNC, Virginia Tech. 3 teams have a chance to be bowl eligible this week with Miami the most likely (@Virginia). Georgia Tech becomes bowl eligible with a win @Virginia Tech and Pitt with a win @ Clemson. Virginia is the only team not bowl eligible and could be joined by Duke this week.
So after this weekend, it is likely that 7 teams are bowl eligible and 5 will still have a chance (If Duke loses):
Syracuse (4-5): Plays NC State in a big game for both teams, then FSU and @Pitt. Probably finishes 4-8.
NC State (4-5): Plays @ Syracuse, Miami and @ UNC. Might finish 5-7 unless they upset Miami or UNC.
Boston College (4-5): @FSU, UConn and @ Wake Forest to finish. Decent chance they have to beat Wake Forest to be bowl eligible to get to 6-6.
Pitt (5-4): @Clemson, Duke, Syracuse left -- Should be 7-5
Miami (5-4): @Virginia, @ NC State and Duke left --Could be 8-4/7-5
Georgia Tech (5-4)
Virginia Tech, Virginia and Georgia -- I think they get 1 from Virginia or Georgia and finish 6-6.
Duke (3-6): Play UNC Thursday, @ Pitt, @ Miami -- Likely done
Notre Dame (3-6): Army, Virginia Tech, @USC - Have no idea what they will do but would put them in the NC State category.
If the odds play out, it looks like Miami, Georgia Tech, Pitt will join the list and that would be 9 teams with BC, NC State, and Notre Dame being possibilities to get to 12. The more teams who aren't bowl eligible the better for Wake Forest and also if Louisville and Clemson get in the playoff.
ACC Bowls
College Football Playoff
Orange Bowl - If the ACC Champion is not in the playoff, they go to the Orange Bowl.
Cotton Bowl - If Louisville is not chosen, they could go to a New Years Six bowl (1 at large spot). If you take today and say Clemson, Washington, Alabama and Michigan/Ohio State are in, Louisville would battle the Michigan/Ohio State loser for that spot. Clearly better for Wake Forest if it was Ohio State with 2 losses, than Michigan with one. This also assumes Louisville wins out.
Citrus Bowl - ACC/Big 10 vs SEC - This is where it gets weird. In a year that the Orange Bowl doesn't host the Semi Finals of the playoffs (this year), and the opponent in the Orange Bowl is from the Big 10 (this year, the Orange Bowl gets the highest ranked team from the SEC/Big 10/Notre Dame - Could be Ohio State or Michigan if Louisville goes to the Cotton Bowl), the ACC then gets a team to go to the Citrus Bowl before the Russell Athletic Bowl picks.
Russell Athletic Bowl - ACC vs Big 12 -- Picks first this year after all that mess above is taken care of. The pick rotates with other Tier One bowls.
Tier One ACC Bowls -- Free for all with all having equal selection status.
Belk Bowl - ACC vs SEC -
Sun Bowl - ACC vs Pac 12
Pinstripe Bowl - ACC vs Big 10
Music City Bowl - ACC/Big 10 vs SEC or TaxSlayer Bowl - ACC/Big 10/SEC
Tier Two ACC Bowls -- Free for all with whatever is left.
Military Bowl - ACC vs AAC
Indipendence Bowl - ACC vs SEC
Quick Lane Bowl - ACC vs Big 10
St. Petersburg Bowl - ACC vsAAC
Birmingham Bowl (Conditional if SEC/AAC can't fill)
The bad news is when a bunch of teams are at 6 or 7 wins and there is no longer a 1 win rule. It only applies to Notre Dame who is eligible for every bowl from the Citrus Bowl on down. That really isn't a factor this year as Notre Dame will have to get to 6-6 to get to a bowl.
Best case for Wake is Clemson to the playoff and Louisville to the playoff and then 7 teams battle for 5 good Tier 1 Bowls including Orlando. It would also be good if Clemson made the playoff and Louisville went to the Orange and played Ohio State opening up the Citrus Bowl for UNC/Virginia Tech or Louisville goes to the Cotton. Either way, the top 2 teams in the ACC going to other bowls opens up spots for Wake Forest.
Worst case is Clemson and Louisville don't make the playoff and bumps it all down.
I still think we get shipped out to El Paso if we get a Tier 1 Chance. Duke and Georgia Tech, two teams who don't travel well got the same treatment. Charlotte, Nashville, New York and Orlando seem like long shots when you are possibly competing with UNC, FSU, Virginia Tech and Miami for those Tier 1 spots. We would be competing with Pitt and Georgia Tech for that spot. If we go to Tier 2, who knows.
With all that, root for Clemson and Louisville to win out, Notre Dame, Duke, Syracuse, Georgia Tech, Boston College and NC State to all lose and good things happen.