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Chicago Cubs Thread - Playoff Push Pending

Lots of weird scenarios in the NL WC race because of the Mets/Marlins game getting suspended with 2 outs in the top of the 9th Marlins up 2-1 and two runners on.

After going to Pittsburgh for a three game series this weekend, the Marlins will need to head back to NY on Monday to play the final 4 outs of Thursday's game, if the outcome of the game would decide whether the Cubs or Marlins get the last WC or if the outcome of the game would decide who gets the #5 seed between the D-Backs and the Marlins. If the Miami v. Mets game has no impact on the WC race, the game will not be completed and the game will revert back to the 8th inning score, giving the Mets the win.

Here are the updated NL WC probabilities for the final two spots:

D-Backs 84-75 -- 97.6% -- HOU (France 11-6 3.83 ERA) @ AZ ( Gallen 17-8 3.49 ERA)
Marlins 82-76 -- 68.5% -- MIA (Cabrera 7-7 4.22 ERA) @ PIT (TBD)
Cubs 82-77 -- 26% -- CHC (Hendricks 6-8 3.66 ERA) @ MIL (Rea 6-6 4.74)
Reds 81-78 -- 7.9% -- CIN (Williamson 4-5 4.54 ERA) @ STL (Woodford 2-2 5.09)

FWIW, the Padres (79-80) have not been eliminated. They would need to sweep the CWS, have the Marlins lose all of the final 4 games, the Cubs to lose out, and the Reds to win no more than one game. Fangraphs gives the Padres 0.0% chance of getting the last WC.

Edited to correct the error noted below.
 
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Deacsfan27 said:
Cubs basically need to sweep and have the Marlins go 1-2. Probably our best bet.
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and if that happens, the Marlins fly to NY to finish a game they lead 2-1 in the top of the 9th; hold on and the Marlins are in

on the flipside, the Pirates have taken 2 of 3 on the road vs. the Cubs and Reds in the last 10 days, so them taking at least 2 from the Marlins is not out of the question
 
I don't think so - we're 82-77, and the Marlins are 82-76. Let's just say they win that game and go to 83-76. If we sweep we finish at 85-77, and they go 1-2, then they're 84-78. We win by a game.
 
Deacsfan27 said:
I don't think so - we're 82-77, and the Marlins are 82-76. Let's just say they win that game and go to 83-76. If we sweep we finish at 85-77, and they go 1-2, then they're 83-79. We win by a game.
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if they go 1-2, they are 83-78 with one game to play (the game that's almost over)

and from Pilch's summary above, the Cubs are 81-78, so by sweeping would be 84-78
 
ahh - never mind, the Cubs are 82-77, not 81-78 as shown above. So yeah, hope the Bucs can take 2 of 3. And the Cubs need to sweep to get to 85 wins
 
So sat next to two HS buddies of the pitcher who gave up the HR to Happ in the 9th but still got the win. They were so amped for their buddy, career minor leaguer who was a 33rd round draft pick. There were more Cubs fans in that stadium than Brewers fans. Time to turn the page to next year. Almost zero chance they make the playoffs now.
 
What are the priorities for the off season? Re-sign Bellinger? Candelario? A top of the line starter?
 
Bellinger is with Boras. That decision likely takes a long time to get made on his end. Bet the Giants go hard in for him. At 28 he’s a risk worth taking. Not an abundance of great position players this offseason. And the Cubs without that anchor type bat look really different offensively.

Not sure what closers are out there, but if there’s an established on the Cubs should go pretty hard. Like the overall depth of the staff. Wouldn’t be surprised if they add a starter.
 
Cubs close out 1-5 in the final 6 while starting that stretch with 2 brutal loses to Atlanta. They would have finished ahead of the Dbacks with anything short of complete collapse by the bullpen.

I think Bellinger has to be priority one as you can ride the combo and him and Tauchman another year at least. PCA looks like he will need at least another full year in the minors. Stroman is rumored to pick up his option they are likely ok for starting pitching. It would be nice for Taillon to revert to form and he did have some quality outings down the stretch. The bullpen is always a mystery and I wouldn’t want to anchor on Leiter Jr. or Fulmer as dependable setup guys due to injury (and presumed injury) status.

Huge off-season as this team was likely slightly better than their record. Even small improvements should have them back in the postseason.
 
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Cubs will need a CF, 1B and 3B. Bellinger would satisfy at 1B and/or CF. He would get $25M on the mutual option with the Cubs. Boras will go for at least $30m/yr on a long term deal.

Morel needs a position and the skills to play it. My choice would be third. He has the arm and the athleticism. Start the process now and spend an entire offseason in development.

Mervis failed at his first try at 1B. So did Rizzo. Second try was the charm. Hope for the same.

Cubs have a lot of outfielders in dvelopment. PCA needs time in AAA to solidify his bat. Tauchman could be a stop gap. Canario might be an option.
 
BlackjackMc said:
Cubs will need a CF, 1B and 3B. Bellinger would satisfy at 1B and/or CF. He would get $25M on the mutual option with the Cubs. Boras will go for at least $30m/yr on a long term deal.

Morel needs a position and the skills to play it. My choice would be third. He has the arm and the athleticism. Start the process now and spend an entire offseason in development.

Mervis failed at his first try at 1B. So did Rizzo. Second try was the charm. Hope for the same.

Cubs have a lot of outfielders in dvelopment. PCA needs time in AAA to solidify his bat. Tauchman could be a stop gap. Canario might be an option.
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This may not be a popular opinion. I wouldn’t pay Belli what his market value is going to be. I fear serious regression
 
WindyCityDeac said:
This may not be a popular opinion. I wouldn’t pay Belli what his market value is going to be. I fear serious regression
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I doubt you are alone in that fear. It could limit the size of his offers to the point a $25m mutual option looks like a smart play. If he duplicated his performance in a second year with the Cubs he would dismiss the idea of regression. Doubt that happens but it would be nice.

Bellinger had a great season. His two strike approach was outstanding. With the exception of Rizzo, it was seldom seen as a basic fundamental skill from Cub stars.
 
I bet we make middling moves without actually paying what it takes to make a championship club. I feel like that’s what we always do.
 
I see very little chance Belli stays for 25M for another year. He will get paid now on a long term guaranteed deal. You get one shot at this type of payday. Deferring that one shot for a year is a huge risk; including the risk an injury ruins your one shot. As for regression, the odds of that are large given he posted career lows in K% and career highs in other stats. What plays for me is the approach. Yeah, he’s got pop but that 2K approach was so solid and will play well into the future. As with all these types of signings the question Is how many years. The Cubs are probably unlikely to do an Angels type deal where you give someone 8-9 years. He’s 28. Does 6 at 35 per get it done? I don‘t know.

I really doubt PCA spends another full year in the minors. History is replete with really good players who struggled even more than him to start their careers. And after two games he was basically relegated to being a pinch hitter against high leverage relievers. The bat is not going to play like it did in the minors. But it will play well enough given that defense absolutely plays. No hits yesterday but the ABs were finally competitive. Drew a walk after going down 0-2. Stole a base with ease. Laced a liner that was caught at 100+ EV. Turned on a FB late in the game that he pulled hard but foul b4 working another 3-2 count and flying out.

Suspect we have seen the last of Wisdom and Tauchman as Cubs. Madrigal may be on the way out as well. He offers little utlity as a bench piece if the Cubs go out and ink an everyday 3B. Morel is the utility knife. Canario is going to be a 4th OF or get traded. The pop in that bat in undeniable - K rate could be a concern.

They better keep Gomes for another year. He has to regress. But man what a great guy to have on the team.

I expect to see the Cubs try to sign some higher leverage arms for the pen, perhaps (maybe likely) wade in on Belli, perhaps add a starter for some depth (not a top guy) and then sign some bridge type players. The guys in the minors who can push for everyday spots are starting to arrive.
 
ResilientDeac said:
I bet we make middling moves without actually paying what it takes to make a championship club. I feel like that’s what we always do.
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Had a friend in the VC world who was talking to some pro sports team ownership types. The quote went something like:

"The challenge is not to win, but to convince your fans that you are trying to win."
 
ResilientDeac said:
I bet we make middling moves without actually paying what it takes to make a championship club. I feel like that’s what we always do.
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Check out the interview with Ricketts in The Athletic if you have a subscription. He said a lot about farm system contribution going forward, which makes me nervous. Cubs have some good prospects, but PCA is not ready to contribute next year, IMO, and I believe the same can be said for the other guys who were called up late in the season. This team needs additional star power, whether or not that includes Bellinger. I hope Jed has the budget and willingness to sign some costly free agents.
 
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