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Collins to test NBA, update: he has signed an agent, per Jeff Goodman

RJKarl said:
That's a negligible difference in money and would likely cost him money over his career. This chart shows the difference last year for #12 vs. #18 as about $2.6M (https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2016/06/2016-nba-rookie-salaries-contracts-first-round-picks.html ). Even if this number increases by 50% (which is unlikely), it would only be $4M. A dozen years from now (hell now) $4M is well below an average NBA salary and even below the mid-level exception.
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2.6M is a lot of money if I'm not mistaken


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RJKarl said:
Read the entire post.

He'd very, very, very, very likely more than make that up by having an extra year to play.
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No I did read the whole post, but again it just matters what's important to him. If he thinks moving up in the draft and getting marginally different money while also coming back to Wake and likely having his jersey in the rafters is the best option, then he will do that. If not, we have another Deac in the NBA. Again, it's all up to what is important to him. Everything here is speculative, which is fine.


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RJKarl said:
That's a negligible difference in money and would likely cost him money over his career. This chart shows the difference last year for #12 vs. #18 as about $2.6M (https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2016/06/2016-nba-rookie-salaries-contracts-first-round-picks.html ). Even if this number increases by 50% (which is unlikely), it would only be $4M. A dozen years from now (hell now) $4M is well below an average NBA salary and even below the mid-level exception.
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True but not the point you were making earlier.

From a purely investment standpoint the math probably starts to favor staying when you get to around a 10-12 spot increase. That depends somewhat on the likelihood of getting a team option picked up and getting a second contract, which I haven't done much research on.
 
RJKarl said:
That's a negligible difference in money and would likely cost him money over his career. This chart shows the difference last year for #12 vs. #18 as about $2.6M (https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2016/06/2016-nba-rookie-salaries-contracts-first-round-picks.html ). Even if this number increases by 50% (which is unlikely), it would only be $4M. A dozen years from now (hell now) $4M is well below an average NBA salary and even below the mid-level exception.
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Also that number is set to increase by 45% under the new CBA. So just a little more than a longshot.
 
In the scope of an NBA cap, the difference in keeping a #10-12 (which is moving the goalposts from your earlier post) and #18 (if he goes that low this year) is so negligible as to be inconsequential. If you look at the chart in Years 3/4, you are talking about a difference about $600-700,000 in a year. Given the salary cap is north of $110M, it's an amount that makes no real difference.
 
One person's advice could result in a long, fruitful NBA career. Another person's could result in a journeyman's career of intrigue on three continents.
 
RChildress107 said:
Also that number is set to increase by 45% under the new CBA. So just a little more than a longshot.
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Which also increases the amount of money he's likely to earn in his last year. The average salary will be about $8-9M. Thus, he'd only have to make less 50% of this to break even. If he's good, he'll likely make over $10M.
 
RJKarl said:
Read the entire post.

He'd very, very, very, very likely more than make that up by having an extra year to play.
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I think you are overstating the likelihood of getting an extra year and the impact it would have.

I'd be interested to see how much impact a player's debut age has on the length of his playing career. It's certainly not 1 to 1.

Also the large majority of players are making the veteran minimum during the last year of their careers. So even if he gets an extra year, he would only be making around 6 million.
 
06deacon said:
One person's advice could result in a long, fruitful NBA career. Another person's could result in a journeyman's career of intrigue on three continents.
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Is it better to be on a good team with good management or a bad team with bad management? That has an impact as well.

If he goes this year, I think Miami is a very likely landing place. They seriously need a PF but not a C. So that takes out Allen and Patton.
 
3.2 million. You heard it here first, folks.
 
RChildress107 said:
I think you are overstating the likelihood of getting an extra year and the impact it would have.

I'd be interested to see how much impact a player's debut age has on the length of his playing career. It's certainly not 1 to 1.

Also the large majority of players are making the veteran minimum during the last year of their careers. So even if he gets an extra year, he would only be making around 6 million.
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Which is still more than he'd make being drafted #12 vs. #18. If you think he'd paid that much below the average pay of an NBA player.
 
RJKarl said:
In the scope of an NBA cap, the difference in keeping a #10-12 (which is moving the goalposts from your earlier post) and #18 (if he goes that low this year) is so negligible as to be inconsequential. If you look at the chart in Years 3/4, you are talking about a difference about $600-700,000 in a year. Given the salary cap is north of $110M, it's an amount that makes no real difference.
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I'm saying a jump of 10-12 spots (I.e. #24 to ##12). If he only jumped 6 spots then it doesn't make sense to stay if money is the only concern.
 
RJKarl said:
Which also increases the amount of money he's likely to earn in his last year. The average salary will be about $8-9M. Thus, he'd only have to make less 50% of this to break even. If he's good, he'll likely make over $10M.
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Only the rookie scale salaries are set to increase by 45% next year, not all salaries.
 
RChildress107 said:
I'm saying a jump of 10-12 spots (I.e. #24 to ##12). If he only jumped 6 spots then it doesn't make sense to stay if money is the only concern.
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You didn't say that. Here's what you said:

"It's better to be the 8th big and 12th overall in a draft with weak guards and wings than the 4th big and 18th overall in a draft with historically good guards and wings."

There's no way to get that to mean what you said in your most recent post.
 
RChildress107 said:
Only the rookie scale salaries are set to increase by 45% next year, not all salaries.
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The cap moves up to over $113M from $94M and will continue to rise over the next 12-15 years.

You just can't admit that you might be wrong.
 
There's a lot of money to be earned. It all comes down to $ and Playing Good Basketball.

2hpri14.jpg
 
Interesting article in the Journal about John and Danny's decision years ago. It is not all about $$ there are other considerations.
 
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