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Collins to test NBA, update: he has signed an agent, per Jeff Goodman

PhDeac said:
Who are some examples of draft prospects who went back and suffered a career threatening injury?
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Chris Marcus. A lot of other factors in play, but he would have been an easy lottery pick after his sophomore year. I think I read that he is now a janitor.
 
Collins to test NBA, not sign agent, per Jeff Goodman

So another basketball player. Where is the evidence that football is a bigger injury risk than basketball for draft status?
 
i1062-6050-42-2-311-f05.jpg


https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1941297/
 
For draft status?
 
I know if I'm advising someone on the risks of returning, I'd have them ignore charts like that and have them focus on anecdotes like individuals who got injured.
 
Just last year those two lbs, Myles Jack and Jaylon Smith who were top guys that fell bigly
 
Collins to test NBA, not sign agent, per Jeff Goodman

06deacon said:
I know if I'm advising someone on the risks of returning, I'd have them ignore charts like that and have them focus on anecdotes like individuals who got injured.
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Everybody knows there are more injuries overall in football than basketball. What I'm looking for is evidence that elite prospects in football are more likely to suffer career threatening injuries. A practice injury chart doesn't tell you that.
 
PhDeac said:
For draft status?
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One's status as "chose to forgo the draft" has no bearing on their chance of injury. A returning junior has the same risk of injury as anyone else (not accounting for things like risky play styles, etc).
 
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/core/l...p=PMC3&id=1941297_i1062-6050-42-2-311-t02.jpg

Can't embed it but 1.4% of basketball injuries are ACLs. 3% of football are ACLs. Combined with a higher injury rate overall, you're more likely to have a major knee injury in football than basketball (167 vs 2159).

Over 25% of basketball injuries are ankle sprains while 13% of football injuries are ankle sprains. Ankle sprains are generally minor/temporary injuries.

The overall risk of catastrophic injury is low overall but you're more likely to be severely hurt in football (contact sport) over basketball (limited contact).
 
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Kenyon Martin was drafted #1 overall despite suffering I think an ACL tear right before the NCAA tournament.

Edited to add: one of my all-time least favorite players without one shred of hate - possibly because Tim Duncan handed him his ass in an NBA final and with a grin. Had a good NBA career though, despite being a huge asshole with a larger ego. Also, has one of the NBA's all-time worst late career tattoos (JJ Redick I think is winning this comp though #succeesing). The red lip tattoo on his neck is awful. Almost as bad as James Johnson Abraham Lincoln on his throat, or whatever that is. Big beard a good move for JJ. Gonna have to keep the beard for life.
 
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ChaosDeac said:
One's status as "chose to forgo the draft" has no bearing on their chance of injury. A returning junior has the same risk of injury as anyone else (not accounting for things like risky play styles, etc).
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Play styles are one thing that elevates a player's draft status.

By using that chart, you're equating "practice injuries" with career threatening injuries.
 
PhDeac said:
Everybody knows there are more injuries overall in football than basketball. What I'm looking for is evidence that elite prospects in football are more likely to suffer career threatening injuries. A practice injury chart doesn't tell you that.
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Well then check out the other chart that shows game injury rate.
 
Collins to test NBA, not sign agent, per Jeff Goodman

06deacon said:
Well then check out the other chart that shows game injury rate.
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Why?

I'm confused about your angle here. I'm sure you don't think charts of practice injuries and game injuries (event) represent career threatening injuries (severity).

For all the fear of elite players coming back and suffering injuries that end or threaten their careers, there are very few examples even in football a sport with a higher rate of injuries.
 
Well because your previous rebuttal attempts referenced practice injuries, as if you didn't also see the chart showing game injuries.

Check out the stats in Chaos' post showing the higher incidence of severe injuries in football. I guess I'm confused about your angle as well.

Football doesn't really produce that many early entries anyway, compared to basketball where basically every elite player contemplates leaving early. So it's not like we're dealing with an equivalent population of guys to backtest for injury related draft falls
 
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PhDeac said:
Why?

I'm confused about your angle here. I'm sure you don't think charts of practice injuries and game injuries (event) represent career threatening injuries (severity).

For all the fear of elite players coming back and suffering injuries that end or threaten their careers, there are very few examples even in football a sport with a higher rate of injuries.
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Are you saying it doesn't happen or can't happen? I don't think anyone here is saying it always or even usually happens (although a few names have been thrown out in this thread). The sample size is quite small because presumably most people who can get good money these days take that money. The question is if you have the choice of taking good money now or coming back with a risk of injury (or just a bad year) versus hopefully a great year that gets you slightly more money (a year later into your playing lifespan), which do you take? Not saying there's a right or wrong answer, it's a personal question of risk assessment.
 
Are we seriously arguing whether any subset of football players has a higher career threatening injury rate than a similar subset of basketball players.

Ph, read the chart, use your brain, extrapolate to career ending injuries, take the L, and shut the fuck up about it.
 
This whole injury discussion is stupid to begin with. As a general rule 20 year old basketball players don't suffer career ending injuries on the court. We could extend this thread 100 more pages and probably only come up with a handful of examples (if that) of a basketball related career ending injury to a player that young in the past 20 years.

The worst case scenario for Collins would be to suffer a season ending injury over the summer and then have to decide whether to play his senior year to try and get back into the mid first round or just go after the year off and hope a team that liked him this year will take him in the late first early second.

The injury risk of coming back isn't nothing but it shouldn't be that much of a factor in the decision making process.
 
Kenyon Martin broke his leg rather than tore his ACL. He was far and away the #1 in a shitty draft and was drafted #1 anyway.

All that got lost in my tangent on tattoos.

If I am not mistaken, John Collins, if he chose to return to Wake, can take out an insurance policy and Wake CAN pay the premiums for the year as long as Collins and Wake enter a contract for Collins to pay Wake back upon signing of his pro contract. This draft is so strong, it is an interesting choice. Stay in the draft and go anywhere from 15-30 or go through the process, come back to college and at the risk of a serious injury, try and improve your draft stock in what is projected to be a much weaker draft. He could also anticipate a year in which Wake would get a lot of exposure and he would be a media focus.
 
jaybone said:
Kenyon Martin broke his leg rather than tore his ACL. He was far and away the #1 in a shitty draft and was drafted #1 anyway.

All that got lost in my tangent on tattoos.

If I am not mistaken, John Collins, if he chose to return to Wake, can take out an insurance policy and Wake CAN pay the premiums for the year as long as Collins and Wake enter a contract for Collins to pay Wake back upon signing of his pro contract. This draft is so strong, it is an interesting choice. Stay in the draft and go anywhere from 15-30 or go through the process, come back to college and at the risk of a serious injury, try and improve your draft stock in what is projected to be a much weaker draft. He could also anticipate a year in which Wake would get a lot of exposure and he would be a media focus.
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There's also a good chance that he could be picked as the preseason ACC POY by the media.
 
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