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Danny Manning Credibility Watch Thread Credibility Watch

PhDeac said:
There's something a little weird going on in these threads. People are using Kenpom and other advanced stats as #evidence that Wake basketball is back in arguments with people who are waiting for actual wins.
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People like Lunardi and Palm who base their projections on actual wins believe that we would be in the NCAA Tourney field if the season ended today, which everyone on this board seems to agree would make this season a successful one. I think the disconnect is between people on one side who view games more as a series of data points (stat geeks and outsiders who don't necessarily watch our games) and accordingly see us as a mid-30's team, and those who are inclined to treat each game as its own universe, who see more as a team ranked somewhere between 60-80.

Given the traumatic nature in which we lost the Clemson game, and the less-severe but still significant collapses against UVA and F$U, plus the horrific finish last year, I think it's easy to see why some people are suspicious of rankings or projections that put us in or near the NCAAT field at this point
 
OldGoldBeard said:
People like Lunardi and Palm who base their projections on actual wins believe that we would be in the NCAA Tourney field if the season ended today, which everyone on this board seems to agree would make this season a successful one. I think the disconnect is between people on one side who view games more as a series of data points (stat geeks and outsiders who don't necessarily watch our games) and accordingly see us as a mid-30's team, and those who are inclined to treat each game as its own universe, who see more as a team ranked somewhere between 60-80.

Given the traumatic nature in which we lost the Clemson game, and the less-severe but still significant collapses against UVA and F$U, plus the horrific finish last year, I think it's easy to see why some people are suspicious of rankings or projections that put us in or near the NCAAT field at this point
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I think there are a lot of people who only watch wake basketball, are pissed because 1. we have sucked the previous six seasons and 2. we blew several chances to pick up quality wins, have trained themselves to pick out every flaw in our team/coach, and assume that we must suck.

If you watch a lot of college basketball, ~#40 seems about right. Every ranking system has us in that range, as do college basketball experts.

What's funny is I haven't actually heard anyone on here come out and say that we arent a top 40ish team. I also haven't heard anyone come out and say that we should be better than a top 40 team at this point in the rebuild.
 
People here are counting chickens before they hatch.
 
What will it take for this team to be ranked #37 ?
 
It's weird how many fans are perplexed by fans who are happy when we win and sad when we lose.
 
OldGoldBeard said:
People like Lunardi and Palm who base their projections on actual wins believe that we would be in the NCAA Tourney field if the season ended today, which everyone on this board seems to agree would make this season a successful one. I think the disconnect is between people on one side who view games more as a series of data points (stat geeks and outsiders who don't necessarily watch our games) and accordingly see us as a mid-30's team, and those who are inclined to treat each game as its own universe, who see more as a team ranked somewhere between 60-80.

Given the traumatic nature in which we lost the Clemson game, and the less-severe but still significant collapses against UVA and F$U, plus the horrific finish last year, I think it's easy to see why some people are suspicious of rankings or projections that put us in or near the NCAAT field at this point
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End thread

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We did not collapse against UVA or F$U. Much better teams simply outplayed us. FSU stopped taking threes and started to use their vast physical advantages and beat us.
 
RJKarl said:
We did not collapse against UVA or F$U. Much better teams simply outplayed us. FSU stopped taking threes and started to use their vast physical advantages and beat us.
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If these teams are "much better" than us, then it would still lead to pessimism about us being a top 30 team. I'm not sure this is a meaningful distinction.
 
FSU is a Top 10/12 team that is a horrible, horrible match-up for us. Before the game, I explained why we'd likely lose by double digits and it came to pass.

We aren't a Top 30 team regardless of what some computers say. One of the computers that says we are #25 says UCLA is #19.

Another one has the team we just dominated at #26 and us at #41. What's even more bizarre is they have our SOS at #7 vs. their #57. The SOR (Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve.) is Wake 45 and Miami 48. They allegedly use RPI- Wake #28 vs. Miami #77.

How can a team be totally dominant in 2 of the 3 factors and slightly ahead in their main one and still be 15 slots behind overall? Do the numbers count or not?

We aren't a Top 30 team. State should beat us, but Gott is terrible.
 
Who says Wake is #25?

KenPom - 37
ESPN BPI - 41
Joe Lunardi (HUMAN) - 46 (one of the last at large NCAA bids)
 
not many RPI fans among stat people.

KenPom and the human Lunardi also have Miami ahead of us still.
 
I give Lunardi props for staking out a claim of being a bracketologist.
 
Not sure what's meant by that. Lunardi is good at what he does
 
CREDIBILITY WATCH ON CREDIBILITY WATCH?
 
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