What makes me think that? Probably because I watched him last night on the Republican debate for president, and the fact that he is currently running for president as a Republican. Paul's effect on the middle will have little to no effect, because people don't like throwing away votes on a 3rd candidate. What Paul would do is drive away his acolytes from the Republican party.
On POTUS they had a commentary explain it brilliantly. Paul isn't a politician he is a cult leader. His job isn't to govern it is to change people's world view. He consistently portrays himself as the only one 'in the know' about how we should deal with our problems. He converts people into followers, he doesn't govern based on a set a principles. He certainly has principles, and some of them are admirable, but he isn't in the business of governing, he is in the business of conversion. That is why his numbers are low nationally, but are very motivated to do whatever it takes to get Paul's name out there. It seems to me that you have been converted. There is nothing wrong with that, but lets give up the charade that Paul has a legit chance at the presidency, or that if he runs he wont destroy any small chance a Republican candidate might have at beating Obama.